**In the Tocantins Senate race, where voters select two candidates for the state's two seats, incumbent Eduardo Gomes (PL) consistently leads polling averages ahead of the October 4 first-round vote.** This leaves a tight contest for second place among federal deputies Carlos Gaguim (União), Alexandre Guimarães (MDB), and Eli Borges (Republicanos). Recent surveys, including Quaest (September 23) and Veritá (mid-September), show these contenders clustered within margins of error in the low-to-mid teens when combining first and second preferences, amid 60-70% undecided or spontaneous non-responses. High fragmentation, low name recognition for many of the 13 registered candidates, and the dual-vote system keep probabilities fluid. Traders assign Gaguim the highest implied odds for second at 42.8%, followed by Guimarães at 34.5%, reflecting their established profiles and recent poll momentum, while smaller shares for figures like Vanderlei Luxemburgo or Paulo Mourão highlight limited upside absent late shifts.