Tristan Buckmaster’s public allegations against OpenAI in early September 2026, centered on pressure to exclude his Anthropic co-author Levent Alpöge from a Navier-Stokes proof and concerns over Codex training data, form the main driver behind trader sentiment. The NYU mathematician detailed tense calls with Sébastien Bubeck and questioned whether OpenAI’s rapid parallel breakthrough relied on leaked user drafts, prompting OpenAI and Sam Altman to defend the team’s integrity while noting differences in the published solution. No lawsuit has been filed as of October 1, keeping implied probabilities low for a filing by year-end. Competitive tensions between AI labs and external researchers, plus uncertainty over whether data leakage claims could support viable legal action, keep the market contested. Traders will watch for any new statements, filings, or regulatory scrutiny on AI data practices that could shift the odds.