Tyler Robinson, charged with aggravated murder and related felonies in the September 2025 shooting death of Charlie Kirk at a Utah Valley University event, faces a preliminary hearing outcome pending before Judge Tony Graf in early September 2026. Prosecutors presented DNA matches on the rifle and casings, text messages including an alleged confession note, and witness accounts during the July 2026 hearing, describing the evidence as overwhelming. Robinson has not entered a plea, the death penalty remains available, and defense counsel has challenged aspects of the prosecution's conduct and evidence handling. These factors, combined with the absence of a trial date and the possibility of plea negotiations or procedural delays before any verdict by the market's December 2026 resolution window, underpin trader consensus favoring a "no" outcome on conviction at 58.5%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$263,732 Vol.
$263,732 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$263,732 Vol.
$263,732 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Tyler Robinson has been charged with Aggravated Murder by The State of Utah for the death of Charlie Kirk. You can read more about that here: https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON (OTN: 70090584) by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
If this specific charge is dropped, or otherwise changed such that it is no longer considered a criminal homicide offense (https://le.utah.gov/xcode/Title76/Chapter5/76-5-S201.html), this market will immediately resolve to "No".
If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open until the resolution date (July 31) to consider further retrials. If a homicide conviction has not been rendered by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.Tyler Robinson, charged with aggravated murder and related felonies in the September 2025 shooting death of Charlie Kirk at a Utah Valley University event, faces a preliminary hearing outcome pending before Judge Tony Graf in early September 2026. Prosecutors presented DNA matches on the rifle and casings, text messages including an alleged confession note, and witness accounts during the July 2026 hearing, describing the evidence as overwhelming. Robinson has not entered a plea, the death penalty remains available, and defense counsel has challenged aspects of the prosecution's conduct and evidence handling. These factors, combined with the absence of a trial date and the possibility of plea negotiations or procedural delays before any verdict by the market's December 2026 resolution window, underpin trader consensus favoring a "no" outcome on conviction at 58.5%.
Tyler Robinson has been charged with Aggravated Murder by The State of Utah for the death of Charlie Kirk. You can read more about that here: https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON (OTN: 70090584) by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
If this specific charge is dropped, or otherwise changed such that it is no longer considered a criminal homicide offense (https://le.utah.gov/xcode/Title76/Chapter5/76-5-S201.html), this market will immediately resolve to "No".
If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open until the resolution date (July 31) to consider further retrials. If a homicide conviction has not been rendered by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON (OTN: 70090584) by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
If this specific charge is dropped, or otherwise changed such that it is no longer considered a criminal homicide offense (https://le.utah.gov/xcode/Title76/Chapter5/76-5-S201.html), this market will immediately resolve to "No".
If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open until the resolution date (July 31) to consider further retrials. If a homicide conviction has not been rendered by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.
Market Opened: Jun 16, 2026, 8:27 PM ET
Volume
$263,732End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 16, 2026, 8:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tyler Robinson has been charged with Aggravated Murder by The State of Utah for the death of Charlie Kirk. You can read more about that here: https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON (OTN: 70090584) by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
If this specific charge is dropped, or otherwise changed such that it is no longer considered a criminal homicide offense (https://le.utah.gov/xcode/Title76/Chapter5/76-5-S201.html), this market will immediately resolve to "No".
If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open until the resolution date (July 31) to consider further retrials. If a homicide conviction has not been rendered by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.Tyler Robinson, charged with aggravated murder and related felonies in the September 2025 shooting death of Charlie Kirk at a Utah Valley University event, faces a preliminary hearing outcome pending before Judge Tony Graf in early September 2026. Prosecutors presented DNA matches on the rifle and casings, text messages including an alleged confession note, and witness accounts during the July 2026 hearing, describing the evidence as overwhelming. Robinson has not entered a plea, the death penalty remains available, and defense counsel has challenged aspects of the prosecution's conduct and evidence handling. These factors, combined with the absence of a trial date and the possibility of plea negotiations or procedural delays before any verdict by the market's December 2026 resolution window, underpin trader consensus favoring a "no" outcome on conviction at 58.5%.
Tyler Robinson has been charged with Aggravated Murder by The State of Utah for the death of Charlie Kirk. You can read more about that here: https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON (OTN: 70090584) by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
If this specific charge is dropped, or otherwise changed such that it is no longer considered a criminal homicide offense (https://le.utah.gov/xcode/Title76/Chapter5/76-5-S201.html), this market will immediately resolve to "No".
If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open until the resolution date (July 31) to consider further retrials. If a homicide conviction has not been rendered by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON (OTN: 70090584) by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
If this specific charge is dropped, or otherwise changed such that it is no longer considered a criminal homicide offense (https://le.utah.gov/xcode/Title76/Chapter5/76-5-S201.html), this market will immediately resolve to "No".
If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open until the resolution date (July 31) to consider further retrials. If a homicide conviction has not been rendered by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$263,732End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 16, 2026, 8:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tyler Robinson, charged with aggravated murder and related felonies in the September 2025 shooting death of Charlie Kirk at a Utah Valley University event, faces a preliminary hearing outcome pending before Judge Tony Graf in early September 2026. Prosecutors presented DNA matches on the rifle and casings, text messages including an alleged confession note, and witness accounts during the July 2026 hearing, describing the evidence as overwhelming. Robinson has not entered a plea, the death penalty remains available, and defense counsel has challenged aspects of the prosecution's conduct and evidence handling. These factors, combined with the absence of a trial date and the possibility of plea negotiations or procedural delays before any verdict by the market's December 2026 resolution window, underpin trader consensus favoring a "no" outcome on conviction at 58.5%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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