**U.S. nuclear test by...?** markets on Polymarket show low probabilities for an explosive nuclear detonation by late 2026, with the December 31 outcome trading near 8%. Trader positioning reflects President Trump’s late-2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with other states, balanced against repeated official clarifications that planned activities involve non-explosive system and subcritical experiments under the Stockpile Stewardship Program. NNSA and STRATCOM assessments continue to certify stockpile reliability without yield-producing tests, while site preparation at the Nevada National Security Site for full underground detonations would require 24–36 months. Recent developments, including the August 2026 release of a JASON study on plutonium aging and ongoing pit-production efforts, have not altered the technical timeline or introduced new policy triggers. Scheduled congressional oversight and budget decisions on modernization remain the primary near-term variables that could influence sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedU.S. nuclear test by...?
U.S. nuclear test by...?
$770,068 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
September 30, 2026
1%
December 31, 2026
4%
$770,068 Vol.
September 30, 2026
$57,189 Vol.
1%
December 31, 2026
$52,068 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**U.S. nuclear test by...?** markets on Polymarket show low probabilities for an explosive nuclear detonation by late 2026, with the December 31 outcome trading near 8%. Trader positioning reflects President Trump’s late-2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with other states, balanced against repeated official clarifications that planned activities involve non-explosive system and subcritical experiments under the Stockpile Stewardship Program. NNSA and STRATCOM assessments continue to certify stockpile reliability without yield-producing tests, while site preparation at the Nevada National Security Site for full underground detonations would require 24–36 months. Recent developments, including the August 2026 release of a JASON study on plutonium aging and ongoing pit-production efforts, have not altered the technical timeline or introduced new policy triggers. Scheduled congressional oversight and budget decisions on modernization remain the primary near-term variables that could influence sentiment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$770,068End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**U.S. nuclear test by...?** markets on Polymarket show low probabilities for an explosive nuclear detonation by late 2026, with the December 31 outcome trading near 8%. Trader positioning reflects President Trump’s late-2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with other states, balanced against repeated official clarifications that planned activities involve non-explosive system and subcritical experiments under the Stockpile Stewardship Program. NNSA and STRATCOM assessments continue to certify stockpile reliability without yield-producing tests, while site preparation at the Nevada National Security Site for full underground detonations would require 24–36 months. Recent developments, including the August 2026 release of a JASON study on plutonium aging and ongoing pit-production efforts, have not altered the technical timeline or introduced new policy triggers. Scheduled congressional oversight and budget decisions on modernization remain the primary near-term variables that could influence sentiment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$770,068End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**U.S. nuclear test by...?** markets on Polymarket show low probabilities for an explosive nuclear detonation by late 2026, with the December 31 outcome trading near 8%. Trader positioning reflects President Trump’s late-2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with other states, balanced against repeated official clarifications that planned activities involve non-explosive system and subcritical experiments under the Stockpile Stewardship Program. NNSA and STRATCOM assessments continue to certify stockpile reliability without yield-producing tests, while site preparation at the Nevada National Security Site for full underground detonations would require 24–36 months. Recent developments, including the August 2026 release of a JASON study on plutonium aging and ongoing pit-production efforts, have not altered the technical timeline or introduced new policy triggers. Scheduled congressional oversight and budget decisions on modernization remain the primary near-term variables that could influence sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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