The impending Trump-Xi summit and the November 2026 expiration of the U.S.-China trade truce represent the central drivers keeping market odds tightly clustered between the 25–35% and 5–15% ranges. Recent preparatory talks have floated reciprocal reductions on roughly $30 billion in non-critical goods to most-favored-nation levels, while Section 301 actions—including the July 12.5% forced-labor tariff—have stabilized effective rates near 20–30% after earlier IEEPA measures were curtailed by court ruling and temporary surcharges. An ongoing overcapacity investigation could add up to 7.5% more, yet prior understandings appear to cap combined new duties near 20%. Traders weigh the potential for truce extension or modest cuts against risks of renewed escalation or unchanged baseline levies through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<5% 43%
25–35% 29%
5–15% 27%
15–25% 14%
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
<5%
43%
5–15%
27%
15–25%
14%
25–35%
29%
35%+
13%
<5% 43%
25–35% 29%
5–15% 27%
15–25% 14%
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
<5%
$146 Vol.
43%
5–15%
$0 Vol.
27%
15–25%
$0 Vol.
14%
25–35%
$0 Vol.
29%
35%+
$145 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.The impending Trump-Xi summit and the November 2026 expiration of the U.S.-China trade truce represent the central drivers keeping market odds tightly clustered between the 25–35% and 5–15% ranges. Recent preparatory talks have floated reciprocal reductions on roughly $30 billion in non-critical goods to most-favored-nation levels, while Section 301 actions—including the July 12.5% forced-labor tariff—have stabilized effective rates near 20–30% after earlier IEEPA measures were curtailed by court ruling and temporary surcharges. An ongoing overcapacity investigation could add up to 7.5% more, yet prior understandings appear to cap combined new duties near 20%. Traders weigh the potential for truce extension or modest cuts against risks of renewed escalation or unchanged baseline levies through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 4:05 PM ET
Volume
$291End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 4:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.The impending Trump-Xi summit and the November 2026 expiration of the U.S.-China trade truce represent the central drivers keeping market odds tightly clustered between the 25–35% and 5–15% ranges. Recent preparatory talks have floated reciprocal reductions on roughly $30 billion in non-critical goods to most-favored-nation levels, while Section 301 actions—including the July 12.5% forced-labor tariff—have stabilized effective rates near 20–30% after earlier IEEPA measures were curtailed by court ruling and temporary surcharges. An ongoing overcapacity investigation could add up to 7.5% more, yet prior understandings appear to cap combined new duties near 20%. Traders weigh the potential for truce extension or modest cuts against risks of renewed escalation or unchanged baseline levies through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volume
$291End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 4:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The impending Trump-Xi summit and the November 2026 expiration of the U.S.-China trade truce represent the central drivers keeping market odds tightly clustered between the 25–35% and 5–15% ranges. Recent preparatory talks have floated reciprocal reductions on roughly $30 billion in non-critical goods to most-favored-nation levels, while Section 301 actions—including the July 12.5% forced-labor tariff—have stabilized effective rates near 20–30% after earlier IEEPA measures were curtailed by court ruling and temporary surcharges. An ongoing overcapacity investigation could add up to 7.5% more, yet prior understandings appear to cap combined new duties near 20%. Traders weigh the potential for truce extension or modest cuts against risks of renewed escalation or unchanged baseline levies through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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