Recent U.S.-China trade talks under the Board of Trade framework have produced a reciprocal “30-for-30” agreement cutting tariffs on roughly $60 billion of non-sensitive goods, with most items moving toward most-favored-nation rates following the late-September Trump-Xi summit. This builds on repeated extensions of the bilateral truce, currently holding additional duties near baseline Section 301 and forced-labor levels while pausing broader escalation through early 2027. Traders assign the highest probability to the 5–15% band because these steps are expected to pull the weighted average rate downward by year-end absent new Section 232 actions or list expansions. Scheduled implementation after domestic procedures and the January 10 truce deadline remain the principal near-term variables that could still shift the final December 31 level.