The May 2025 Oman-brokered US-Houthi ceasefire, which ended direct US strikes and Houthi attacks on American vessels, remains the central driver of trader sentiment. Despite Houthi offensives in September 2026 targeting strategic heights in Taiz, Al-Hudaydah, and other Red Sea frontlines against Saudi-backed forces, the Trump administration has rejected Saudi requests for US airstrikes, confirmed ongoing direct communications with Houthi representatives, and received explicit assurances that the group will not target US assets. US support has been limited to intelligence sharing, while the Houthis have focused operations on Yemeni government and Saudi-linked targets amid ongoing internal displacements and UN-mediated detainee releases. This pattern of restraint, consistent with the truce's track record through prior regional flare-ups, underpins market pricing around continuation checkpoints.