The tight clustering of implied probabilities around the four Pacific teams stems from their even distribution across separate groups and comparable roster depth heading into the Shanghai group stage. Global Esports, Nongshim RedForce, Paper Rex, and T1 each earned qualification through strong VCT Pacific Stage 2 results, yet all face demanding early matchups against Americas and EMEA sides with recent form advantages. Paper Rex’s opening win provides slight separation, while T1’s loss and the others’ narrow defeats keep elimination timelines uncertain. No single squad holds a clear edge in map pool flexibility or recent international head-to-heads, sustaining trader consensus that any could exit first depending on the next round of results.