**The November 18 Sotheby’s evening sale of the long-private Blaquier-Arrieta collection sets the stage for trader focus on Châtaigniers en fleurs.** This rare 1890 Auvers landscape, unseen publicly since 1975, carries an auction-house-guided expectation near $180 million hammer (potentially $207 million with premium) and is positioned to eclipse Van Gogh’s $117.2 million record. Its emergence from a storied private holding, combined with strong international interest during the pre-sale tour and Sotheby’s guarantee, underpins the market-implied odds that tilt toward $200 million–plus outcomes. The closely contested $200–225 million and $225 million+ brackets reflect uncertainty over final bidding depth in a competitive week of New York sales, with the live auction serving as the decisive catalyst.