Recent polling across multiple firms shows the Liberal–National Coalition holding a consistent two-party-preferred lead of around 54–46 over Labor following the July 2026 leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll. Primary-vote fragmentation has elevated One Nation to the mid-20s percent range alongside Coalition and Labor figures near 28–29 percent and 24–25 percent respectively, creating a three-cornered contest that still tilts toward the Coalition once preferences are distributed. Carroll’s modest improvement in preferred-premier ratings has not reversed the broader swing against the incumbent government after twelve years in office. With the November 28 election roughly nine weeks away, trader pricing reflects these sustained polling trends and the structural barriers facing Labor in converting primary support into a majority in the Legislative Assembly.