US and Iranian officials held separate indirect talks with mediators in New York in late September 2026, focusing on an amended version of Iran's seven-day proposal to end seven months of hostilities, lift the US naval blockade, unfreeze assets, ease sanctions on oil exports, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz without tolls. President Trump rejected the initial pitch but signaled openness to further engagement, while Iran conditions any Hormuz reopening on those concessions and ties nuclear talks to broader progress. The June 2026 interim MOU collapsed after brief implementation, leaving core issues—nuclear inspections, uranium stockpile disposition, ballistic missiles, and a potential $300 billion reconstruction framework—unresolved amid ongoing regional tensions involving Lebanon and proxy conflicts. Traders assess probabilities around these diplomatic and military catalysts.