The September 2026 FOMC meeting, which delivered a 25 basis point hike to a 3.75-4.00% target range and revised the median dot plot higher to 4.1% for year-end 2026, has anchored trader expectations around elevated rates persisting through December. Upward revisions to inflation projections, including core PCE at 3.4% for 2026, combined with resilient growth and a lower unemployment forecast, have reinforced views that additional tightening or a delayed easing cycle will keep the policy rate near or above 4.25%. Market pricing favoring outcomes of 4.25% or higher reflects the “higher for longer” consensus embedded in recent data releases and the broad dispersion in participant dots, where several officials see rates remaining above 4% well into 2027. With only three months left in the year, incoming labor market and inflation prints will determine whether the current path holds or shifts toward the lower-probability cuts still embedded in some longer-run projections.