Recent FOMC projections from the September 2026 meeting, which lifted the median federal funds rate path to 4.1% for both year-end 2026 and 2027 amid a 25 basis point hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range, anchor trader sentiment on the 2027 terminal rate. Resilient GDP growth near 2.3-2.4%, unemployment holding at 4.1%, and PCE inflation at 3.7% with core at 3.4% have prompted a hawkish revision versus June dots, narrowing the gap between market-implied odds and official guidance. With top Polymarket outcomes clustered between 4.0% and 5.0% and no single rate exceeding 15.5% implied probability, consensus remains fragmented due to uncertainty over the pace of any 2027 easing, potential further hikes if inflation persists, and sensitivity to upcoming CPI, PCE, and payroll data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedView resolved

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