Recent median listing prices in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro area have stabilized near $524,000 to $565,000 as of August 2026, according to Realtor.com data tracked by FRED, aligning closely with the $524K-$530K bucket that commands 87.8% implied probability. Cooling dynamics—including rising inventory, longer days on market, and modest year-over-year price softening in core District segments—have tempered earlier peaks above $675,000 in sold prices. With resolution just days away on September 30, market-implied odds reflect aggregated trader positioning around these latest verifiable benchmarks rather than forward projections, though any final September adjustments in listings or sales could still influence the outcome within narrow ranges.