**Strong model consensus and rapid observed intensification position a peak RONI above 2.5°C as the dominant market outcome.** As of mid-September 2026, the event has already produced weekly conventional Niño 3.4 anomalies near +3.0°C, with the June–August RONI at +1.4°C and continuing to rise. NOAA CPC’s September 10 outlook assigns over 90% probability to a very strong El Niño (peak at least +2.0°C) and 75% odds that the October–December 2026 three-month RONI exceeds +2.5°C—the threshold for surpassing all events since 1950 on the relative index. Dynamical and statistical model ensembles, including IRI and NMME runs, center the peak in October–December or November–January with medians around 2.6–3.1°C on RONI, reflecting exceptional subsurface heat content and persistent westerly wind anomalies. This alignment between current observations, multi-model agreement, and official strength probabilities explains the 74.5% market-implied probability for over 2.5°C. The next CPC update and fresh model plumes in October will provide the primary near-term catalyst for any shifts.