Persistent Russian demands that any Zelenskyy-Putin meeting occur only in Moscow after major Ukrainian concessions, combined with Kremlin statements that direct leader-level talks remain premature without prior expert negotiations, underpin the market's 93.5% pricing on no bilateral summit before 2027. Recent U.S. proposals for trilateral technical discussions in the UAE or a possible G20 venue in Miami have drawn cautious responses from Moscow, while battlefield dynamics and mutual strikes on energy infrastructure continue without de-escalation. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a rapid breakthrough in U.S.-mediated envoy talks yielding a leaders' format by December 2026 or a sudden Russian policy adjustment ahead of the G20.