Ongoing military operations, including recent Ukrainian drone strikes deep into Russia and stalled U.S.-mediated talks, continue to highlight persistent gaps on territorial control, security guarantees, and demilitarized zones. Fresh Ukrainian proposals delivered to U.S. negotiators in mid-August 2026 have not yet prompted bilateral leader engagement, while Russian statements emphasize preconditions and upcoming parliamentary elections that could influence mobilization. Putin has previously ruled out direct meetings absent prior agreement on terms, consistent with the absence of bilateral summits since early 2022. Trader consensus on no encounter before 2027 reflects these entrenched positions and the lack of imminent diplomatic breakthroughs. Potential shifts could arise from verified progress in trilateral formats, major battlefield developments altering leverage, or unexpected external mediation yielding a confirmed summit within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUkrainian Foreign Minister says Zelenskyy ready to meet Putin with Trump and Erdoğan participation
No meeting before 2027 rises to 92%2%
On August 10, 2026, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha stated Zelenskyy is ready to meet Putin in Turkey with US President Trump and Turkish President Erdoğan participating. Despite this, Putin's conditions and refusal to meet outside Moscow kept the market confident that no meeting would occur before 2027.
Financial Times reports Putin unlikely to hold meaningful peace talks before 2027
The Financial Times reported that Putin is unlikely to engage in meaningful peace talks with Ukraine before February 2027, citing sources familiar with private negotiations. This report reinforced market expectations that no meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin would occur before 2027, supporting the dominant market position.
Zelenskyy announces new trilateral talks involving Ukraine, US, and Russia before autumn
No meeting before 2027 rises to 92%2%
Zelenskyy announced plans for a new round of trilateral talks involving Ukraine, the US, and Russia before autumn 2026. The US was expected to discuss proposals with Moscow first. This indicated ongoing diplomatic efforts but no imminent direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, supporting the market's high probability for no meeting in 2026.
Zelenskyy rejects meeting Putin in Moscow, names neutral venues including Switzerland and Turkey
No meeting before 2027 rises to 92%2%
Zelenskyy publicly rejected Kremlin demands to meet Putin in Moscow, stating that any meeting must be in a neutral country such as Switzerland, Turkey, or a Middle Eastern country. This stance, combined with Putin's refusal to engage outside Moscow, contributed to the market's increased confidence that no meeting would occur before 2027.
Zelenskyy and Trump discuss reviving peace talks and Patriot missile production
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 93%6%
On July 28, 2026, Zelenskyy met with US President Donald Trump at the White House, discussing plans to revive peace talks with Russia and produce Patriot missile interceptors in Ukraine. This meeting signaled ongoing diplomatic efforts but did not change the fundamental impasse on meeting location.
Zelenskyy meets US lawmakers and Trump in Washington, pushing for sanctions and peace talks
Zelenskyy’s visit to Washington included meetings with President Trump and US senators, resulting in new sanctions on countries buying Russian oil and signaling strong US support to pressure Putin towards negotiations, slightly increasing market interest in a US-hosted meeting.
Zelenskyy meets Trump in Washington to seek more US support and discuss peace efforts
No meeting before 2027 rises to 93%2%
Zelenskyy visited Washington and met with Trump on July 28 to discuss military aid, sanctions, and diplomatic efforts to end the war. Zelenskyy emphasized the importance of continued US support and the prospect of peace talks, but no direct meeting with Putin was arranged. This reinforced the market's view that a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting in 2026 was unlikely.
Zelenskyy gains momentum in Washington with improved relations and sanctions push
No meeting before 2027 rises to 90%4%
Zelenskyy's successful meetings with US lawmakers and President Trump improved diplomatic support and increased pressure on Russia, but no direct meeting with Putin was arranged, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy and Trump discuss Patriot missile deal and reviving peace talks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 88%3%
Zelenskyy met with Trump at the White House to discuss military cooperation and efforts to revive peace talks with Russia, but no direct meeting with Putin was arranged, maintaining market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy meets Trump at White House, seeks more cooperation and diplomatic progress
No meeting before 2027 rises to 90%3%
Zelenskyy held a 'good meeting' with Trump in Washington, discussing military cooperation and diplomatic efforts to bring Putin to the negotiating table. Despite positive tone, no direct breakthrough on a meeting was announced, supporting the market's high probability of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy meets US senators in Washington to push for pressure on Putin
Zelenskyy met with US senators to advance diplomatic and legislative efforts aimed at pressuring Putin to negotiate peace, reinforcing the US as a key diplomatic actor and potential meeting venue.
Zelenskyy holds talks with Trump in Washington amid overlapping conflicts
No meeting before 2027 rises to 93%4%
Zelenskyy met with Trump in Washington to discuss ongoing war efforts and diplomatic strategies, including the possibility of a meeting with Putin. The lack of concrete progress kept market confidence low for a meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy has a 'good meeting' with Trump at the White House, seeks more cooperation
No meeting before 2027 rises to 89%2%
Zelenskyy met with U.S. President Trump in Washington to discuss military aid, including Patriot missile production, and emphasized the need to reinvigorate diplomatic efforts to end the war. This meeting underscored ongoing U.S. mediation but did not lead to a scheduled Zelenskyy-Putin meeting.
Putin meets Kazakhstan’s President Tokayev, who urges return to Istanbul formula
Putin’s meeting with Kazakhstan’s President Tokayev included calls to freeze the Ukraine conflict and return to Istanbul-format negotiations, highlighting diplomatic efforts but no direct meeting with Zelenskyy, maintaining market preference for no meeting before 2027.
Kazakh President urges Russia and Ukraine to freeze conflict and return to Istanbul talks; Putin rejects pause
No meeting before 2027 rises to 90%1%
Kazakhstan’s President Tokayev called for freezing the Ukraine conflict and resuming Istanbul-format negotiations, but Putin rejected the idea, maintaining ongoing hostilities and diminishing near-term meeting prospects.
Kazakhstan urges Russia to freeze Ukraine war and return to Istanbul talks
Kazakh President Tokayev urged Putin to freeze the conflict and return to the Istanbul Formula 2.0 peace talks, highlighting regional diplomatic efforts. This briefly raised market attention to Kazakhstan as a possible meeting venue, though with low probability.
Putin meets Kazakhstan's Tokayev, rejects freezing Ukraine frontline
No meeting before 2027 rises to 92%3%
Putin met Kazakhstan's president and justified continuing the war without freezing the frontline, signaling no imminent peace talks or meetings with Zelenskyy. This reinforced market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Kazakhstan's President Tokayev urges Putin to freeze Ukraine war and return to Istanbul talks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 90%2%
Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met with Putin and publicly urged him to freeze the war and return to the Istanbul Formula 2.0 peace talks. Zelenskyy also suggested Kazakhstan as a neutral venue for talks. Despite this, no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin was arranged, maintaining market skepticism about a near-term meeting.
Putin meets Kazakhstan's President Tokayev amid calls to freeze Ukraine conflict
Kazakhstan dips to 0%1%
Putin met with Kazakhstan's President Tokayev, who urged freezing the Ukraine conflict and returning to previous negotiation formats, but Putin showed no indication of agreeing to direct talks with Zelenskyy, maintaining the status quo.
Kazakh President calls for freezing Ukraine war, references Istanbul talks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 92%2%
Kazakh President Tokayev urged Putin to freeze the war and return to the Istanbul Formula 2.0 peace talks, signaling regional diplomatic efforts but no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin. This maintained the market's high probability of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy announces new trilateral talks with US and Russia before autumn
No meeting before 2027 dips to 89%1%
Zelenskyy revealed plans for a new round of trilateral talks involving Ukraine, the US, and Russia before autumn, indicating ongoing diplomatic engagement but no confirmed direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin. This maintained market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy announces new trilateral talks with US and Russia before autumn
No meeting before 2027 rises to 91%2%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy revealed plans for a new round of trilateral talks involving Ukraine, the United States, and Russia expected before autumn, indicating ongoing diplomatic efforts but no confirmed leader-level meeting. This maintained market skepticism about a near-term Putin-Zelenskyy meeting.
Zelenskyy announces new round of trilateral talks with US and Russia before autumn
No meeting before 2027 rises to 91%1%
Zelenskyy revealed that proposals from US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff were to be discussed with Russia, with a trilateral meeting expected before autumn. This indicated ongoing diplomatic efforts but no immediate breakthrough, supporting the market's high probability of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy publicly invites Putin to Kyiv for peace talks, refusing Moscow or Belarus
No meeting before 2027 rises to 90%3%
Zelenskyy issued a bold public invitation to Putin to meet in Kyiv "if he dares," explicitly rejecting Moscow or Belarus as meeting venues. This move was a strategic assertion of Ukrainian sovereignty and a challenge to Russia. The Kremlin reiterated its invitation to Moscow, but Zelenskyy's stance hardened. This diplomatic impasse contributed to increased market confidence that no meeting would occur in 2026.
Ukraine announces Zelenskyy ready to meet Putin in Turkey
No meeting before 2027 rises to 88%2%
Ukrainian officials announced Zelenskyy's readiness to meet Putin in Turkey, one of the neutral venues proposed earlier, but no confirmation of Putin's acceptance or meeting followed, keeping market confidence high that no meeting will occur before 2027.
Zelenskyy ready to meet Putin in Turkey, Ukrainian foreign minister says
Ukraine publicly stated Zelenskyy's readiness to meet Putin in Turkey, one of the neutral venues proposed earlier, but no confirmation of Putin's acceptance or meeting date was reported, maintaining market skepticism.
Ukraine proposes Türkiye as venue for Zelenskyy-Putin summit
Turkey dips to 1%1%
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha proposed Türkiye as a potential location for direct talks between Zelenskyy and Putin, emphasizing readiness for a ceasefire. This reflected ongoing diplomatic efforts but no confirmed meeting followed.
European leaders urge Trump to host Zelenskyy-Putin talks at G7 summit
No meeting before 2027 rises to 88%2%
At the G7 summit, European leaders encouraged Donald Trump to facilitate talks between Zelenskyy and Putin in the US, reflecting ongoing international efforts to mediate. However, no concrete meeting was arranged, sustaining market belief in no meeting before 2027.
Ukraine announces Zelenskyy’s readiness to meet Putin in Turkey
Ukraine declared Zelenskyy’s readiness to meet Putin in Turkey, reinforcing Turkey’s role as a potential neutral venue and slightly influencing market probabilities for Turkey.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister proposes Türkiye as venue for Zelenskyy-Putin talks
Ukraine suggested Türkiye as a potential neutral location for direct talks between Zelenskyy and Putin, emphasizing readiness for a ceasefire and the need for a leaders' summit to revive peace efforts. This reinforced the market's low but present interest in a meeting outside traditional venues.
Ukraine proposes Türkiye as venue for Zelenskyy-Putin summit
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha publicly proposed Türkiye as a potential location for direct talks between Zelenskyy and Putin, emphasizing readiness for a ceasefire and the importance of a leaders' summit to revive peace efforts. This reinforced the idea of neutral venues but did not lead to confirmed meeting plans, maintaining market skepticism.
Ukraine confirms readiness to meet Putin in Turkey, rejects Russia and Belarus venues
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha confirmed Ukraine's readiness to meet Putin in Turkey, explicitly ruling out Russia and Belarus as meeting locations due to their roles in the conflict.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister does not rule out Zelenskyy-Putin meeting in Türkiye
No meeting before 2027 rises to 89%1%
Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha stated that a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin could possibly take place in Türkiye, keeping the option of a neutral venue alive but without confirmation of a scheduled meeting. This maintained low market confidence in a near-term meeting.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister proposes Türkiye as venue for Zelenskyy-Putin talks
Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha publicly proposed Türkiye as a potential location for direct talks between Zelenskyy and Putin, emphasizing Kyiv's readiness for a ceasefire and the importance of a leaders' summit to revive peace efforts. This reinforced market speculation about Turkey as a meeting site but did not materialize into a confirmed meeting.
Ukrainian foreign minister does not rule out Zelenskyy-Putin meeting in Türkiye
Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha stated that a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin could possibly take place in Türkiye, keeping the option of a neutral venue alive and influencing market pricing for Turkey as a potential meeting location.
Putin pours cold water on Zelensky meeting
No meeting before 2027 dips to 86%2%
Putin publicly dismissed the prospect of meeting Zelenskyy, stating there was no reason for diplomatic talks, reinforcing market expectations that no meeting would occur before 2027.
Zelenskyy states Ukraine entering critical war phase, discusses situation with Trump
No meeting before 2027 rises to 88%3%
Zelenskyy highlighted Ukraine's strengthened position and ongoing discussions with US President Trump, signaling continued military and diplomatic efforts but no confirmed meeting with Putin. This contributed to market favoring no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy meets Trump at NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey
Zelenskyy held a bilateral meeting with U.S. President Trump during the NATO summit, discussing military support and diplomatic efforts to revive peace talks with Russia. This reinforced hopes for diplomacy but did not directly increase chances of a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting.
Zelenskyy and Trump hold bilateral meeting at NATO summit in Turkey
No meeting before 2027 rises to 87%1%
Zelenskyy met with Trump at the NATO summit in Ankara, discussing ongoing support and peace prospects. Despite positive tones, no direct meeting with Putin occurred, maintaining market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy meets Trump at NATO summit in Turkey, discusses peace prospects
US dips to 2%1%
Zelenskyy met with Donald Trump during the NATO summit in Turkey, where Trump expressed optimism about peace prospects and reiterated willingness to mediate between Zelenskyy and Putin, supporting the idea of a future meeting.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet in Turkey, discuss pressure on Putin for peace talks
US President Donald Trump met with Zelenskyy in Turkey, publicly supporting a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting and discussing strategies to pressure Putin to end the war. This reinforced diplomatic momentum but did not change Putin's stance, keeping market probabilities low for a meeting.
Trump optimistic about potential Putin-Zelenskyy meeting at NATO summit in Turkey
At the NATO summit in Ankara, US President Trump expressed optimism about a potential meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy, suggesting it could help resolve the conflict. This briefly increased market interest in Turkey as a meeting venue.
Trump and Zelenskyy hold bilateral meeting at NATO summit in Ankara
No meeting before 2027 rises to 90%2%
Trump and Zelenskyy met on the sidelines of the NATO summit, discussing military aid and diplomatic efforts, with Trump agreeing to raise issues with Putin. Despite positive rhetoric, no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin occurred, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy publicly invites Putin to Kyiv for talks, rejecting Moscow and Belarus venues
No meeting before 2027 rises to 90%2%
Zelenskyy issued a bold public invitation to Putin to meet in Kyiv, stating Putin must 'dare' to come, while refusing to travel to Moscow or Belarus. The Kremlin reiterated its invitation for Zelenskyy to come to Moscow, which Zelenskyy rejected. This diplomatic standoff contributed to market confidence that no meeting would occur before 2027.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet at NATO summit in Ankara
Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the NATO summit, with Trump expressing optimism about ending the war and pledging to raise the issue with Putin. This meeting reinforced diplomatic engagement but did not lead to a confirmed Putin-Zelenskyy meeting, sustaining the market's high probability of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy meets Trump in Turkey, discusses meeting Putin and peace prospects
Zelenskyy met US President Trump in Turkey, discussing the possibility of meeting Putin and expressing optimism about peace prospects. However, no direct meeting with Putin was arranged, and the market remained skeptical about a meeting before 2027.
Trump meets Zelenskyy at NATO summit, expresses optimism for peace talks
No meeting before 2027 dips to 87%3%
At the NATO summit in Ankara, Trump met Zelenskyy and expressed belief that Putin wants to end the conflict soon, boosting hopes for a meeting. However, no concrete agreement on a meeting location or date was reached, keeping market odds for a meeting low.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet in Turkey, discuss meeting Putin in Moscow
No meeting before 2027 rises to 89%1%
At the NATO summit in Ankara, Trump and Zelenskyy met and discussed the possibility of Zelenskyy meeting Putin in Moscow, which Zelenskyy has repeatedly ruled out. This reinforced skepticism about a meeting occurring before 2027.
Trump predicts imminent Putin-Zelenskyy meeting but Kyiv rejects Moscow venue
No meeting before 2027 rises to 90%3%
Former U.S. President Donald Trump stated his belief that a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy would happen soon, noting Zelenskyy's refusal to meet in Moscow. This statement briefly raised hopes for a meeting but underscored the venue dispute, keeping the market's dominant expectation of no meeting intact.
Zelenskyy and Trump meet at NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey
No meeting before 2027 rises to 90%2%
Zelenskyy met with US President Trump on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Turkey on July 8. They discussed military aid, diplomatic efforts, and the prospect of peace. Trump expressed optimism about ending the conflict, but no direct meeting with Putin was arranged. This meeting reinforced the US role as mediator but did not advance a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, maintaining market skepticism.
Zelenskyy meets Trump in Turkey, discussing pressure on Putin to end war
US dips to 2%1%
Zelenskyy held talks with US President Trump in Turkey, focusing on strategies to push Putin towards peace negotiations, signaling continued diplomatic efforts involving the US.
Trump says meeting between Putin and Zelensky will take place 'very soon'
Turkey rises to 3%1%
Trump expressed optimism about an imminent meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, reinforcing market speculation about a meeting possibly in Turkey, where Trump met Zelenskyy, though Kiev opposed Moscow as venue.
Zelenskyy agrees to meet Hungarian Prime Minister during NATO summit, discusses future bilateral talks
Zelenskyy and Hungary’s Prime Minister Péter Magyar agreed to hold a bilateral meeting soon, reflecting ongoing diplomatic engagements but not directly involving Putin, thus having limited impact on meeting prospects.
Zelenskyy and Trump discuss peace prospects at NATO summit in Turkey
Turkey rises to 2%1%
Zelenskyy and US President Trump held talks during the NATO summit in Ankara, discussing ongoing peace prospects and agreeing to continue dialogue. This maintained market interest in Turkey as a potential meeting venue but did not indicate an imminent meeting.
Zelenskyy meets Trump at NATO summit in Turkey, discusses peace efforts
No meeting before 2027 rises to 89%4%
Zelenskyy and Trump met on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, where they discussed Ukraine's defense needs and diplomatic efforts to end the war. Trump indicated he would raise the issue with Putin, but no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin was arranged. This reinforced market expectations that no meeting would occur soon.
Trump meets Zelenskyy at NATO summit in Turkey, discusses pushing Putin to end war
US President Donald Trump met Zelenskyy in Ankara, Turkey, discussing efforts to pressure Putin to end the war. This meeting highlighted Turkey's role as a diplomatic venue and mediator, supporting Turkey as a potential meeting location.
Zelenskyy meets Trump in Turkey, discusses potential meeting format with Putin
No meeting before 2027 rises to 90%2%
At the NATO summit in Ankara, Zelenskyy and Trump discussed organizing a meeting with Putin in the US under a format making refusal difficult for Putin. Despite this, no breakthrough occurred, maintaining market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Trump meets Zelenskyy in Turkey, discusses pressure on Putin for peace talks
Turkey rises to 2%1%
US President Donald Trump met with Zelenskyy in Turkey, signaling increased diplomatic pressure on Putin to engage in peace talks. This event supported market interest in Turkey as a potential meeting location.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet at NATO summit in Ankara, discuss peace efforts
No meeting before 2027 rises to 89%1%
US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy held a bilateral meeting during the NATO summit, discussing ideas to bring peace closer and signaling US support for renewed diplomatic engagement. This event slightly increased hopes for talks but did not significantly shift market odds away from no meeting before 2027.
US President Trump holds calls with Putin and Zelenskyy ahead of NATO summit
No meeting before 2027 rises to 88%2%
US President Donald Trump engaged in separate phone calls with both Putin and Zelenskyy to discuss resolving the Ukraine conflict, signaling renewed US diplomatic efforts. The calls preceded the NATO summit in Turkey, where further discussions were planned, but no direct meeting between the two leaders was arranged.
Trump plans to meet Zelenskyy at NATO summit in Ankara, then call Putin
US President Donald Trump scheduled a meeting with Zelenskyy at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, with plans to subsequently call Putin, indicating ongoing US efforts to mediate and possibly host or facilitate a meeting between the two leaders.
US President Trump holds calls with Putin and Zelenskyy ahead of NATO summit in Turkey
Trump engaged both leaders in separate calls to encourage peace talks, signaling renewed US diplomatic efforts coinciding with the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, but no meeting was arranged.
Trump and Zelenskyy plan talks during NATO Summit in Ankara
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 93%6%
Ahead of the NATO Summit in Ankara, Trump and Zelenskyy planned to hold talks, signaling ongoing diplomatic engagement but no direct meeting with Putin was arranged, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Trump to meet Zelenskyy at NATO summit in Ankara and call Putin
No meeting before 2027 rises to 89%4%
U.S. President Donald Trump planned to meet Zelenskyy at the NATO summit in Ankara and subsequently call Putin, signaling renewed U.S. diplomatic engagement. This raised hopes for progress but did not lead to a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, influencing market prices toward no meeting before 2027.
Trump holds calls with Putin and Zelenskyy ahead of NATO summit in Turkey
No meeting before 2027 rises to 92%2%
In early July 2026, Trump held separate calls with Putin and Zelenskyy before the NATO summit in Ankara, signaling renewed diplomatic engagement. A face-to-face meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin was planned for the summit but did not occur, contributing to the market's increased probability of no meeting before 2027.
Trump holds calls with Putin and Zelenskyy ahead of NATO summit in Turkey
On July 7, US President Trump held separate calls with Putin and Zelenskyy to discuss peace efforts ahead of the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, raising hopes for a possible meeting during the summit.
Zelenskyy attends NATO summit in Turkey, signaling readiness for talks
Zelenskyy arrived in Ankara for the NATO summit, where he met with allied leaders including US officials, reinforcing Turkey's role as a potential venue for talks and maintaining diplomatic momentum for a meeting with Putin.
Trump, Zelenskyy meet at NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, discussing peace prospects
At the NATO summit in Turkey, Zelenskyy and Trump held talks about pushing Putin to end the war, with Trump optimistic about peace prospects. This increased market attention on Turkey as a possible meeting location, though no direct meeting with Putin occurred.
Trump plans to meet Zelenskyy at NATO summit and call Putin to push peace talks
Ahead of the NATO summit, Trump planned to meet Zelenskyy and then call Putin to encourage peace talks. This US diplomatic engagement raised hopes but did not result in a confirmed meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, maintaining market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Trump holds calls with Putin and Zelenskyy ahead of NATO summit in Turkey
US President Trump spoke separately with Putin and Zelenskyy before the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, raising hopes for talks there. The Kremlin confirmed the calls but no meeting was confirmed, keeping market uncertainty.
US President Trump holds separate talks with Putin and Zelenskyy ahead of NATO summit
On July 5, 2026, US President Trump held separate discussions with Putin and Zelenskyy focusing on the Ukraine conflict and diplomatic efforts ahead of the NATO summit. Despite ongoing dialogue, no agreement on a direct meeting was reached, maintaining market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy and Putin hold Fourth of July phone calls with Trump
No meeting before 2027 rises to 89%4%
Both Zelenskyy and Putin held phone calls with Trump on July 4, discussing the Ukrainian settlement and peace prospects. Zelenskyy expressed a 'real prospect' of ending the conflict and agreed to continue talks at the upcoming NATO summit, but no in-person meeting was arranged.
Trump holds separate calls with Zelenskyy and Putin ahead of NATO summit
No meeting before 2027 rises to 89%2%
On July 5, US President Donald Trump held nearly 90-minute phone calls with both Zelenskyy and Putin, discussing the Ukraine conflict and diplomatic efforts. Zelenskyy described the call as "very good" and expressed hope for peace talks continuation at the upcoming NATO summit in Turkey. This renewed US diplomatic engagement raised hopes but did not specify meeting locations, supporting the market's high probability for no meeting in 2026.
Trump announces meeting with Zelenskyy at NATO summit in Turkey
No meeting before 2027 rises to 86%1%
US President Trump announced a bilateral meeting with Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, signaling US engagement in the conflict but no direct meeting with Putin. This reinforced the market's view that a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting was unlikely before 2027.
Trump holds calls with Putin and Zelenskyy ahead of NATO summit in Turkey
No meeting before 2027 rises to 92%3%
US President Trump engaged both leaders in separate calls to push for peace talks ahead of the NATO summit in Ankara, signaling renewed diplomatic efforts but no confirmed meeting venue or date.
Trump to meet Zelenskyy at NATO summit amid US push to end Russia's war
No meeting before 2027 rises to 90%2%
On July 5, 2026, the White House announced Trump would meet Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara to revive stalled diplomacy. However, no meeting with Putin was arranged, and the focus remained on indirect talks, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Trump holds phone calls with Zelenskyy and Putin ahead of NATO summit in Turkey
Turkey dips to 1%2%
US President Donald Trump held separate phone calls with both Zelenskyy and Putin, signaling renewed US diplomatic engagement and raising hopes for talks at the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey. This increased market interest in a possible meeting in Turkey but did not lead to immediate breakthroughs.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet on NATO summit sidelines to revive stalled diplomacy
No meeting before 2027 rises to 90%2%
The meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy at the NATO summit aimed to revive peace talks, but no breakthrough on meeting location emerged, sustaining the market's high probability for no meeting before 2027.
Trump holds calls with Zelenskyy and Putin ahead of NATO summit in Turkey
No meeting before 2027 rises to 87%3%
US President Trump spoke separately with Zelenskyy and Putin, discussing prospects for peace and upcoming NATO talks in Turkey, but no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin was arranged, sustaining market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy and Putin hold separate phone calls with Trump ahead of NATO summit
No meeting before 2027 dips to 87%2%
Both leaders spoke with US President Trump in early July, signaling renewed diplomatic engagement. Zelenskyy expressed optimism about peace prospects and planned to continue talks at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, but no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin was arranged.
Zelenskyy invites Putin to meet in 'captured' Kostiantynivka amid Kremlin claims
No meeting before 2027 rises to 88%2%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy challenged Putin to meet in Kostiantynivka, a city Russia claimed to have captured but Ukraine denied controlling, framing it as a test of Putin's willingness to engage diplomatically. This bold invitation highlighted ongoing tensions and skepticism about a meeting on contested territory, impacting market confidence in a near-term meeting.
Zelenskyy challenges Putin to meet in Kostiantynivka amid disputed control claims
No meeting before 2027 rises to 89%3%
Zelenskyy invited Putin to meet in Kostiantynivka, a city Russia claims to control but Ukraine denies, challenging the Kremlin's narrative and emphasizing Ukraine's stance on meeting locations. This bold move underscored the diplomatic stalemate and affected market confidence in a meeting on Ukrainian or Russian territory.
Putin and Zelenskyy hold Fourth of July phone calls with Trump
No meeting before 2027 rises to 86%1%
Both leaders engaged in phone calls with U.S. President Trump discussing the Ukrainian conflict, signaling ongoing diplomatic communication but no direct bilateral meeting. This maintained market expectations of low near-term meeting probability.
Zelenskyy urges allies to speed up air-defense aid at NATO summit in Ankara
Ahead of the NATO summit in Ankara, Zelenskyy called for accelerated air-defense support for Ukraine, signaling ongoing conflict and no immediate diplomatic breakthrough with Russia, reducing chances of a meeting before 2027.
Global Peace 2030 president calls for immediate ceasefire and peace talks
On July 2, 2026, Sappan KC Hum, president of Global Peace 2030, publicly appealed to Putin and Zelenskyy for ceasefire and peace talks, offering independent mediation. Despite this, no direct meeting occurred, reflecting ongoing stalemate.
French President Macron confirms upcoming talks with Zelenskyy and other leaders
No meeting before 2027 rises to 92%2%
Macron announced that he and other leaders would meet Zelenskyy soon to discuss engaging Russia in negotiations, indicating ongoing diplomatic efforts but no direct Putin-Zelenskyy meeting yet.
G7 leaders push Russia to end Ukraine war, Trump urges Moscow to 'make a deal'
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%4%
On June 30, 2026, G7 leaders intensified pressure on Russia to end the war, with US President Trump calling for a deal. Despite this diplomatic pressure, no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin was arranged, sustaining market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Putin admits no agreement reached with Trump to end Ukraine war
No meeting before 2027 rises to 83%1%
Putin publicly acknowledged that no agreement was reached with Trump to end the war during their previous meeting, signaling continued stalemate and reducing prospects for a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting soon. This reinforced market confidence in no meeting before 2027.
Putin dismisses Kyiv’s ceasefire proposals, insists on military goals
No meeting before 2027 rises to 85%1%
On June 30, 2026, Putin dismissed Ukraine’s latest ceasefire proposals and stated Russia will not negotiate under pressure, emphasizing unchanged military objectives. This statement further diminished prospects for a meeting before 2027.
Putin implicitly rejects recent Ukrainian ceasefire proposals
No meeting before 2027 rises to 85%1%
Putin implicitly rejected two recent Ukrainian ceasefire proposals, continuing to show intransigence toward good-faith negotiations. This reinforced market expectations that no meeting would take place before 2027.
Putin and Lukashenko hold secretive Valdai meeting amid Zelenskyy’s threats
Putin met privately with Belarusian President Lukashenko in a secretive two-day meeting, fueling speculation about coordinated military plans in response to Zelenskyy’s escalations, indicating no imminent peace talks and reinforcing market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Putin and Belarusian President Lukashenko hold talks amid Ukraine war tensions
Putin met with Belarusian President Lukashenko on June 26, 2026, to discuss the Ukraine war and regional security. While this meeting involved Putin, it did not include Zelenskyy, reflecting ongoing absence of direct talks between the two leaders.
Putin rejects diplomatic solutions and emphasizes military goals in speech
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%4%
On June 28, 2026, Putin publicly rejected diplomatic solutions to end the war and reaffirmed Russia's military objectives, signaling no willingness for direct negotiations with Ukraine. This hardened stance increased market confidence that no meeting would occur before 2027.
Putin and Lukashenko hold talks amid rising Belarus-Ukraine tensions
Belarus dips to 0%1%
Putin and Belarusian President Lukashenko met to discuss bilateral relations and regional security amid rising tensions with Ukraine, reflecting the geopolitical complexity but no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, supporting market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Putin and Belarusian President Lukashenko hold talks amid rising Belarus-Ukraine tensions
Putin met with Belarusian President Lukashenko to discuss regional security and the ongoing war in Ukraine, highlighting Belarus's role and increasing tensions, which affects the feasibility of meetings in Belarus.
Putin meets Belarus leader Lukashenko amid rising tensions
Putin held talks with Belarusian President Lukashenko in Russia, focusing on regional security and the ongoing war, but no joint statements or agreements were announced. This event did not signal progress toward a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, keeping Belarus option unlikely.
Putin meets Lukashenko in Russia amid rising tensions with Ukraine
Putin and Belarusian President Lukashenko met in Valdai, Russia, to discuss regional issues including Zelenskyy's ultimatum to Belarus, but no indication of a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, maintaining low market interest in Belarus venue.
Zelenskyy calls on Putin to take a step toward peace ahead of NATO summit in Ankara
No meeting before 2027 rises to 82%1%
Zelenskyy emphasized the need for Russia to take steps toward peace, signaling ongoing diplomatic pressure but no confirmed meeting. This sustained the market's high probability for no meeting before 2027.
Putin and Lukashenko meet amid rising Belarus-Ukraine tensions
Putin met Belarusian President Lukashenko to discuss regional security and the ongoing war, highlighting Belarus' role as a Russian ally. This increased tensions with Ukraine and made a meeting in Belarus unlikely, affecting market pricing for that outcome.
Ukraine’s foreign minister says patience not endless, hints at need for new peace venue
Zelenskyy warned the UN Security Council that Ukraine’s patience was not endless, implying a possible shift to a third‑country venue. The statement subtly raised attention on Turkey as a realistic host, reinforcing the Turkey market line.
Putin and Lukashenko to discuss Zelenskyy’s ultimatum to Belarus
Putin planned a meeting with Belarusian leader Lukashenko to discuss Zelenskyy’s demand to dismantle Russian military relay stations in Belarus. This raised speculation about Belarus’s role but did not directly affect Zelenskyy-Putin meeting prospects, keeping Belarus as a low-probability venue.
US President Trump supports direct talks between Zelenskyy and Putin
No meeting before 2027 rises to 83%3%
Former US President Donald Trump welcomed the possibility of a meeting between the two leaders, emphasizing the need for compromises to achieve peace. This endorsement briefly raised market hopes for a meeting but did not overcome Russia's firm stance.
Putin reiterates refusal to meet Zelenskyy without preconditions
No meeting before 2027 rises to 82%3%
Putin publicly reaffirmed his stance that he sees no point in meeting Zelenskyy without prior agreement on key issues, emphasizing Russia’s war aims and rejecting Zelenskyy’s direct negotiation proposals, which maintained market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy attends G7 summit in France, urges leaders to push for peace talks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 85%1%
At the June 2026 G7 summit in France, Zelenskyy engaged with world leaders including Trump and Macron, who encouraged continued support for Ukraine and pressure on Russia. Discussions included the possibility of US-hosted talks, but no direct meeting was arranged, sustaining market preference for no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy proposes US as venue for talks before winter as Russia denies G7 offer
US rises to 4%3%
Zelenskyy suggested holding talks in the United States before winter, while the Kremlin denied receiving any formal G7 or US venue offers, causing the 'US' option to rise and 'Turkey' to drop.
Trump says he spoke with Putin on the eve of G7, urges US‑hosted talks
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 84%6%
During the G7 summit, Trump met Zelenskyy and said he had spoken with Putin the previous Sunday. The communication hinted at a possible trilateral meeting, reinforcing the market’s belief that a direct meeting was unlikely before 2027, pushing the “No meeting” price to a new high.
European leaders urge Trump to host Zelenskyy-Putin talks in US during G7 summit
US dips to 4%1%
On June 16, European leaders at the G7 summit encouraged US President Trump to host peace talks between Zelenskyy and Putin in the US, highlighting international diplomatic efforts to break the deadlock.
Zelenskyy proposes meeting Putin in US during G7 summit
Zelenskyy suggested a meeting with Putin in the US, aiming to leverage the G7 summit setting, but Putin continued to reject meetings without a finalized peace deal, keeping market confidence in a meeting low.
G7 leaders urge Trump to host Zelenskyy-Putin talks in US
US dips to 2%1%
European leaders at the G7 summit encouraged US President Trump to host talks between Zelenskyy and Putin, raising hopes for a US venue meeting, but no direct meeting occurred, and market prices for US venue remained low.
Zelenskyy attends G7 summit, offers to meet Putin; Putin refuses
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%1%
At the G7 summit in France, Zelenskyy reiterated his offer to meet Putin to end the war, but Putin refused, reinforcing market expectations that no meeting will occur before 2027.
Trilateral meeting of Zelenskyy, Trump, and Macron at G7 summit
No meeting before 2027 rises to 82%2%
Zelenskyy met with Trump and Macron on the sidelines of the G7 summit to discuss Ukraine-Russia war and peace efforts. Despite high-level talks, no breakthrough on a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting emerged, sustaining market sentiment for no meeting before 2027.
G7 leaders urge Trump to host Zelenskyy-Putin talks to break deadlock
At the G7 summit, European leaders encouraged US President Trump to host talks between Zelenskyy and Putin to revive stalled diplomacy, highlighting ongoing international efforts but no confirmed meeting, sustaining market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
European leaders urge Trump to host Zelenskyy-Putin talks at G7
No meeting before 2027 rises to 92%1%
European leaders encouraged US President Trump to facilitate talks between Zelenskyy and Putin at the G7 summit, reflecting ongoing international efforts to broker a meeting despite Kremlin resistance.
Zelenskyy proposes meeting Putin in the US amid ongoing rejections
No meeting before 2027 rises to 92%2%
Zelenskyy suggested the US as a neutral venue for a meeting with Putin, continuing efforts to find a location acceptable to both sides. Despite this, Putin maintained his refusal to meet before a peace deal is ready, keeping market confidence in a meeting low.
Zelenskyy rejects meeting Putin in Moscow, proposes Turkey, Switzerland, or Middle East
Turkey dips to 1%2%
Zelenskyy publicly refused Russia's offer to meet in Moscow, stating he would only meet Putin in Turkey, Switzerland, or the Middle East, emphasizing his stance against Moscow as a venue and maintaining pressure for a neutral location.
Zelenskyy refuses to meet Putin in Moscow, proposes Turkey or Switzerland instead
Turkey rises to 5%2%
Zelenskyy publicly rejected Russia's offer to meet in Moscow, calling it unacceptable and proposed meeting in Turkey, Switzerland, or a Middle Eastern country. This reinforced the market's low confidence in Russia as a meeting venue and supported neutral locations.
European Leaders at G7 Urge Trump to Host Zelenskyy-Putin Talks in US
US rises to 5%4%
At the G7 summit in France, European leaders urged US President Donald Trump to host peace talks between Zelenskyy and Putin in the United States, boosting the probability of a US venue.
Zelenskyy offers to meet Putin at G7 summit; Russia denies receiving US venue offer
No meeting before 2027 dips to 81%3%
Zelenskyy proposed a meeting with Putin on the sidelines of the G7 summit and discussed holding peace talks in the US to make refusal harder for Putin. Kremlin aides denied receiving such offers and rejected the proposal, maintaining Russia's refusal to engage in direct talks.
Ukraine's Zelenskiy says he offered to meet Putin at G7 or the U.S.
No meeting before 2027 rises to 86%2%
Zelenskyy publicly offered to meet Putin at the G7 summit in France or in the US to discuss ending the war, but Putin rejected the offer, maintaining no reason for talks. This kept market probabilities for a meeting low.
European leaders urge Trump to host Zelenskyy-Putin talks in US
US rises to 4%2%
At the G7 summit, European leaders called on US President Donald Trump to facilitate talks between Zelenskyy and Putin in the United States, reflecting international pressure for a meeting. Zelenskyy also expressed willingness to meet in the US, but no meeting occurred during the window.
Zelenskiy says he offered to meet Putin at G7 or the U.S.
US rises to 5%3%
Zelenskyy suggested meeting Putin at the upcoming G7 summit or in the United States, with US agreement to invite Putin, which increased market interest in the US as a meeting venue.
Zelenskyy offers to meet Putin at G7 summit or in the US, backed by Trump
No meeting before 2027 rises to 83%4%
Zelenskyy announced he had offered to meet Putin at the G7 summit in France or in the United States, with US President Trump supporting the idea to pressure Putin. However, Putin declined to engage, keeping the prospect of a meeting uncertain.
Zelenskyy Reveals Offer to Meet Putin at G7 Summit or in the US
US rises to 5%4%
Zelenskyy stated he offered to meet Putin at the G7 summit in France or in the United States with US and French mediation, but noted that Putin refused the format.
Zelenskyy proposes meeting with Putin at G7 summit in France
No meeting before 2027 dips to 80%2%
Zelenskyy offered to meet Putin during the G7 summit with US President Trump and European leaders present, aiming to leverage multilateral pressure. Russia did not respond positively, maintaining its refusal to engage, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting.
Zelenskyy offers to meet Putin at G7 summit or in the US for peace talks
US dips to 2%1%
Zelenskyy publicly offered to meet Putin at the G7 summit in France or in the US, aiming to leverage international diplomatic platforms, but Putin remained noncommittal, maintaining market skepticism.
Zelenskyy and Trump discuss holding meeting with Putin at G7 summit; Putin reluctant
No meeting before 2027 drops to 76%9%
On June 14, Zelenskyy and Trump discussed a possible meeting with Putin at the G7 summit to increase pressure on Putin. Zelenskyy said Putin does not want the meeting. This reinforced market expectations that no meeting would occur before 2027.
Zelenskyy and Trump discuss possible meeting with Putin in US around G7
US rises to 4%2%
Zelenskyy and US President Trump discussed holding a meeting with Putin in the United States during the G7 summit, aiming for a format Putin would find harder to refuse. This raised slight market interest in the US as a potential meeting venue.
Zelenskyy proposes meeting Putin in the US or at G7 summit, with US support
US rises to 3%1%
Zelenskyy announced he had offered to meet Putin either at the G7 summit in France or in the United States, with US President Trump agreeing to invite Putin, aiming to create a format Putin would find harder to refuse. This raised hopes for a meeting but no confirmation followed.
European leaders urge Trump to host Zelenskyy-Putin talks at G7 summit
No meeting before 2027 dips to 81%1%
Ahead of the G7 summit, European leaders encouraged US President Trump to facilitate a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin. Zelenskyy also discussed the possibility of a meeting in the US or at the G7, but no agreement was reached, sustaining market doubts about a meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy proposes meeting Putin at G7 summit in France or US, Russia not ready
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 88%5%
Zelenskyy offered to meet Putin at the G7 summit or in the US, with US agreement to invite Putin. Russia showed no readiness to engage, maintaining the stalemate and supporting the market's strong position on no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy and Trump discuss meeting format in US to pressure Putin
No meeting before 2027 dips to 1%2%
Zelenskyy and US President Trump discussed organizing a meeting with Putin in the US in a format making it difficult for Putin to refuse, aiming to increase diplomatic pressure on Russia.
Zelenskyy proposes G7 sideline meeting with Putin in France
No meeting before 2027 drops to 77%5%
Zelenskyy proposed a face-to-face meeting with Putin on the sidelines of the G7 summit in France, hoping the presence of US and European leaders would pressure Putin to attend.
Zelenskyy and Trump discuss organizing meeting with Putin in US to pressure Russia
Zelenskyy revealed discussions with US President Trump about holding a meeting with Putin in the United States in a format harder for Putin to refuse, aiming to increase diplomatic pressure on Russia.
Zelenskyy meets Swiss President in Geneva discussing air defense and talks
Switzerland rises to 2%1%
Zelenskyy met with the Swiss President in Geneva, discussing Ukraine's defense needs and the possibility of Switzerland hosting peace talks, reinforcing Switzerland's role as a potential neutral venue for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting.
Zelenskyy discusses potential US-hosted meeting with Trump ahead of G7
US rises to 4%3%
Zelenskyy revealed discussions with US President Trump about holding a meeting with Putin in the United States, aiming for a format that would make refusal harder for Putin. This raised market interest in the US as a possible venue.
Trump discusses Ukraine peace efforts with Putin and Zelenskyy ahead of G7 summit
No meeting before 2027 dips to 81%3%
US President Donald Trump held calls with both Putin and Zelenskyy, expressing willingness to help end the war and encouraging talks. European leaders urged Trump to host Zelenskyy-Putin talks, but no meeting was scheduled, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy and Trump discuss potential US-hosted meeting with Putin
US rises to 4%3%
Zelenskyy revealed discussions with US President Trump about holding a meeting with Putin in the US, aiming to create a format Putin might find harder to refuse, slightly boosting the US meeting option.
Putin and Zelenskyy each speak with Trump ahead of G7 summit
Both leaders spoke with US President Trump, discussing peace prospects without concrete details. Trump expressed readiness to influence peace efforts, but no direct meeting was arranged, keeping market probabilities stable.
Zelenskyy says Ukraine pushed Putin 'a little' toward potential meeting
Zelenskyy stated Ukraine pushed Putin toward readiness for real meetings but emphasized the need to find a suitable format, reflecting ongoing negotiation challenges and sustaining market belief in no meeting before 2027.
US President Trump declines bilateral meeting with Zelenskyy at G7 summit
US dips to 1%1%
Reports indicated that Trump would not hold a bilateral meeting with Zelenskyy at the G7 summit, focusing instead on talks with other leaders, reducing immediate prospects for a US-hosted meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin.
Zelenskyy attends Nordic-Baltic summit, signaling continued diplomatic efforts
No meeting before 2027 rises to 86%2%
Zelenskyy’s participation in international summits like the Nordic-Baltic Eight reflects ongoing diplomatic engagement but no direct meeting with Putin, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy reveals meeting with Roman Abramovich as backchannel to Putin
No meeting before 2027 rises to 82%1%
Zelenskyy disclosed a secret meeting with Abramovich, who acted as a messenger to Putin, indicating ongoing indirect communication but no direct meeting. This maintained market skepticism about an imminent meeting.
Zelenskyy meets Roman Abramovich in Kyiv to discuss peace message to Kremlin
Zelenskyy met with Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich in Kyiv, who offered to deliver a silent message to Putin about peace prospects. This backchannel contact indicated ongoing indirect communication but no direct meeting between the two leaders, sustaining market belief in no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy Confirms Secret Backchannel Meeting with Roman Abramovich in Kyiv
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%4%
Reports emerged that Zelenskyy had previously met with Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich in Kyiv to pass a private proposal for a face-to-face meeting to Putin, which Putin ultimately dismissed.
Trump endorses Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, urges compromises
Turkey rises to 6%3%
Former US President Donald Trump publicly supported a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, calling it 'great' but emphasizing the need for compromises. This endorsement briefly raised market hopes for a meeting, though no concrete plans emerged.
Zelenskyy confirms private meeting with Russian billionaire Abramovich in Kyiv
No meeting before 2027 rises to 82%1%
Zelenskyy met privately with Roman Abramovich in Kyiv, using backchannels to communicate with Putin, signaling ongoing indirect engagement but no public meeting between the two leaders. This maintained market skepticism about a direct meeting soon.
Zelenskyy meets Roman Abramovich in Kyiv to convey message to Putin
Zelenskyy met with Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich in Kyiv to pass a message to Putin, reiterating the request for a face-to-face meeting, but Abramovich indicated Putin was unlikely to accept, sustaining market skepticism about a meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy confirms secret backchannel meeting with Roman Abramovich in Kyiv
Qatar / UAE dips to 1%3%
Zelenskyy confirmed he held a private meeting with Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich to pass a message to Putin proposing a face-to-face meeting, which Putin had already privately dismissed.
Zelenskyy confirms backchannel message sent to Putin via Roman Abramovich
Turkey dips to 5%1%
Zelenskyy acknowledged meeting with Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich in Kyiv to pass a discreet message to Putin, though Putin had already rejected the initiative.
Zelenskyy sends meeting proposal to Putin via Roman Abramovich
No meeting before 2027 dips to 82%1%
Zelenskyy used Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich as a backchannel to propose a meeting to Putin, but sources indicate Putin is unlikely to accept, maintaining market skepticism about a meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy confirms Abramovich’s secret mission to Putin and criticizes Kremlin’s weak response
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 87%6%
Zelenskyy publicly acknowledged using Abramovich as a channel to send messages to Putin, including a ceasefire proposal. He criticized Putin’s weak response, reinforcing market sentiment that a meeting was unlikely soon.
Zelenskyy confirms secret Kyiv meeting with Roman Abramovich acting as backchannel
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%1%
Zelenskyy broke his silence on a discreet meeting in Kyiv with Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich, who attempted to deliver a silent message to Putin requesting face-to-face talks.
Zelenskyy meets Roman Abramovich to send message to Putin
No meeting before 2027 rises to 82%1%
Zelenskyy confirmed a meeting with Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich, who reportedly acted as a discreet intermediary to Putin, indicating ongoing backchannel communications but no public agreement on a meeting venue or date.
Zelenskyy confirms secret meeting with Roman Abramovich in Kyiv
Zelenskyy met with Russian oligarch Abramovich, who acted as a backchannel to Putin, reiterating the request for a face-to-face meeting. Despite this, no breakthrough occurred, maintaining market skepticism about a meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy confirms secret talks with Putin via intermediary Abramovich
Zelenskyy acknowledged private communications with Putin through Russian businessman Roman Abramovich, indicating ongoing backchannel dialogue but no public agreement on a meeting venue or date. This maintained market uncertainty about a meeting.
European leaders back Zelenskyy's call for direct talks with Putin
No meeting before 2027 rises to 80%2%
UK, France, and Germany leaders publicly supported Zelenskyy's proposal for direct dialogue with Putin, emphasizing the importance of European involvement. Despite this political backing, no meeting materialized, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy meets Western leaders to boost diplomatic momentum
No meeting before 2027 rises to 82%1%
Zelenskyy met with French President Macron, UK Prime Minister Starmer, and German Chancellor Merz in London to seek renewed support for peace talks, maintaining international pressure for a meeting but with no immediate breakthrough.
Putin sets conditions for Zelenskyy meeting as Kyiv pushes for summit
No meeting before 2027 rises to 88%2%
On June 6, 2026, Putin stated a meeting would only be possible if both sides identified a framework for resolving the conflict, but the prospect of a near-term summit remained remote due to Kyiv's rejection of Moscow's territorial demands. This further diminished chances of a meeting before 2027.
Kremlin insists Putin will meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow to finalize agreements
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 90%5%
Kremlin officials reiterated that Putin would meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow and only to finalize a deal already negotiated, rejecting Zelenskyy's proposals for neutral venues. This hardened the impasse and further increased market confidence in no meeting before 2027.
Putin says there is ‘no point’ in meeting Zelenskyy after Ukraine’s open‑letter offer
No meeting before 2027 rises to 86%2%
Putin publicly dismissed the Ukrainian proposal, saying there was “no point” in meeting Zelenskyy now. This rebuff reinforced market expectations that no meeting would occur before 2027, pushing the “No meeting before 2027” probability upward.
Zelenskyy confirms secret talks with Putin via intermediary Abramovich
Zelenskyy acknowledged private communications with Putin through Russian businessman Roman Abramovich, indicating ongoing backchannel efforts despite public rejections. This maintained some market interest in a possible meeting but with uncertainty about timing and location.
Putin rejects Zelenskyy's meeting proposal, demands peace deal framework first
No meeting before 2027 drops to 78%6%
At the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Putin stated he saw no point in meeting Zelenskyy until a peace deal framework is identified, effectively rejecting the open invitation and dampening hopes for imminent talks.
Putin rejects Zelenskyy's offer to meet, insists on peace deal first
No meeting before 2027 rises to 89%4%
Putin publicly rejected Zelenskyy's proposal for a face-to-face meeting, stating he sees no point in meeting before a peace deal framework is established. This hardened stance diminished prospects for a meeting in 2026 and increased market confidence in no meeting before 2027.
French President confirms upcoming talks with Zelenskyy to engage Russia in negotiations
No meeting before 2027 rises to 87%1%
French President Emmanuel Macron announced that he and other leaders would meet Zelenskyy soon to discuss ways to bring Russia into peace negotiations, indicating ongoing diplomatic efforts but no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting yet.
Zelenskyy renews call for direct meeting with Putin, suggests neutral venues
Zelenskyy reiterated his call for direct talks with Putin in an open letter, proposing neutral countries like Turkey or Switzerland for the meeting, while rejecting Moscow as a venue, highlighting ongoing diplomatic stalemate and location disputes.
US President Trump supports potential Zelenskyy-Putin meeting
US rises to 3%1%
US President Donald Trump publicly welcomed the possibility of a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, stating it would be "very good" and that both sides would need to make compromises. This endorsement slightly increased market confidence in a meeting occurring, especially in US or neutral venues.
Putin Rejects Zelenskyy's Request for In-Person Meeting
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 86%7%
Speaking at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Vladimir Putin rebuffed Zelenskyy's letter, stating he saw 'no sense' in a meeting and calling the letter rude.
Putin repeats ‘no point’ in meeting Zelenskyy at St. Petersburg forum
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%3%
During the St. Petersburg Economic Forum Putin reiterated there was “no point” in meeting Zelenskyy now, reinforcing the market’s belief that a meeting will not happen before 2027 and keeping the “No meeting” odds near the ceiling.
Kremlin says Putin ready to meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow to finalize agreements
Russia dips to 1%1%
Kremlin spokesperson stated Putin would meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow and only to finalize agreements already reached, rejecting neutral venues and limiting chances of a meeting elsewhere.
Putin calls Zelenskyy's letter rude and dismisses meeting possibility
No meeting before 2027 dips to 75%3%
Putin described Zelenskyy's open letter as containing rude remarks and suggested it was a tactic to avoid a real meeting, reinforcing Kremlin's stance against direct talks and contributing to market skepticism.
Kremlin says Zelenskyy can meet Putin anytime in Moscow, but no deal yet
Kremlin spokesman stated that Zelenskyy is welcome to come to Moscow for talks, but Putin has not yet agreed to a meeting without a deal. This ambiguous stance maintained market uncertainty, with no significant price shifts.
Putin rebuffs Zelenskyy’s call for talks, Kremlin says Zelenskyy can meet Putin in Moscow anytime
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 89%6%
Putin publicly dismissed the idea of meeting Zelenskyy, calling it pointless, while Kremlin spokesperson said Zelenskyy could come to Moscow anytime. This official stance reinforced market expectations that no meeting would occur before 2027.
Kremlin confirms Putin has not yet seen Zelenskyy's letter, invites Zelenskyy to Moscow
No meeting before 2027 rises to 90%1%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated Putin had not yet been shown Zelenskyy's letter but reiterated that Zelenskyy could meet Putin in Moscow anytime, reinforcing Russia's position on meeting location and conditions.
US President Trump supports Zelenskyy-Putin meeting proposal
Turkey rises to 6%3%
US President Donald Trump expressed support for a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, calling it 'great' and taking credit for encouraging talks. This endorsement added diplomatic weight to the proposal but did not change Putin’s stance.
Putin rejects Zelenskyy's call for talks, sees no point in meeting
Russia plunges to 2%42%
Putin publicly dismissed Zelenskyy's proposal for face-to-face talks, maintaining his stance that he would only meet to finalize a deal, which sharply reduced market expectations for a meeting in Russia or elsewhere.
French President Macron confirms upcoming talks with Zelenskyy to engage Russia
No meeting before 2027 rises to 70%2%
Macron announced that European leaders would meet Zelenskyy soon to discuss ways to bring Russia to negotiations, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts but no confirmed Putin-Zelenskyy meeting, sustaining market uncertainty.
Putin publicly rebuffs Zelenskyy’s meeting proposal at St. Petersburg forum
No meeting before 2027 dips to 83%2%
Putin responded to Zelenskyy’s open letter by dismissing the meeting proposal as pointless and rude, reiterating that any meeting would only occur in Moscow, which Zelenskyy refuses, solidifying the stalemate and pushing market odds further toward no meeting.
Putin sets conditions for Zelenskyy meeting as Kiev pushes for summit
No meeting before 2027 dips to 82%1%
Putin stated that a meeting would only be possible if both sides first identify a framework for resolving the conflict, emphasizing preconditions that Ukraine rejects. Zelenskyy had proposed neutral venues, but Moscow insisted on prior agreements, maintaining the deadlock.
Putin says Russia is ready for peaceful talks but calls Zelenskyy’s letter boorish
US rises to 2%1%
At the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Putin reiterated Russia’s readiness to negotiate “through peaceful means”, but also dismissed Zelenskyy’s letter as “boorish”. The market saw a small uptick for the “Russia‑friendly” options (China, US) before falling back.
Putin sets conditions for meeting, demands peace framework first
No meeting before 2027 rises to 82%1%
At the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Putin stated a meeting with Zelenskyy would only happen if both sides agreed on a framework for resolving the conflict, signaling reluctance to meet without preconditions.
Putin sees 'no point' in meeting Zelenskyy to discuss ending war
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 83%5%
Putin publicly stated he sees no point in meeting Zelenskyy to discuss ending the war, which increased market confidence that no meeting would occur before 2027.
Putin publicly rejects Zelenskyy's meeting proposal, sees no point
No meeting before 2027 rises to 89%4%
Putin dismissed Zelenskyy's call for a meeting, stating he saw no point in it until a peace deal was ready. This rejection solidified market expectations that no meeting would occur before 2027.
Kremlin revives Putin–Zelenskyy meeting talks, sets conditions for Moscow venue
Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov stated that Putin is ready to meet Zelenskyy in Moscow if the meeting is well-prepared and aimed at positive results, reinforcing Moscow as the only acceptable venue and limiting meeting possibilities.
Kremlin welcomes Zelenskyy’s meeting proposal but Putin has not reviewed letter yet
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%3%
Kremlin spokesperson Peskov said Russia welcomed the idea of a meeting and that Zelenskyy could travel to Moscow anytime, but Putin had not yet reviewed the letter. This ambiguous stance maintained market skepticism about a meeting in neutral venues.
Putin reaffirms war aims and dismisses Zelenskyy's meeting offer as rude
No meeting before 2027 dips to 79%2%
Putin publicly dismissed Zelenskyy's open letter and meeting proposal as rude and reiterated Russia's commitment to achieving its war goals, signaling no willingness to negotiate soon and reinforcing market confidence in no meeting before 2027.
Putin says there’s ‘no point’ meeting with Zelenskyy
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 85%7%
At the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum Putin said there was “no point” in meeting Zelenskyy, reinforcing the market’s view that a direct summit was unlikely and boosting the “No meeting before 2027” probability.
Kremlin responds to Zelenskyy's letter by suggesting he can come to Moscow
No meeting before 2027 dips to 78%3%
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin would be briefed on the letter but reiterated that Zelenskyy was welcome to meet in Moscow at any time. This response, along with expert skepticism, tempered expectations of a neutral-ground meeting, keeping 'No meeting before 2027' as the dominant market favorite.
Putin states meeting with Zelenskyy only possible if peace framework agreed
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%1%
At the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, Putin said a meeting would only occur if both sides identify a framework for resolving the conflict, signaling no immediate summit. This statement contributed to market skepticism about near-term talks.
Putin rejects Zelenskyy call for talks ahead of leaders meeting
Putin publicly dismissed Zelenskyy's call for talks, maintaining that any meeting must be well-prepared and aimed at concrete results, which dampened market optimism for a meeting outside Moscow.
Putin rejects Zelenskyy call for talks ahead of leaders meeting
No meeting before 2027 rises to 88%3%
Putin stated he sees no point in meeting Zelenskyy until a peace deal is ready, maintaining his position that any meeting would be in Moscow to finalize agreements. This hardened stance diminished chances of a meeting in neutral venues and boosted the market's confidence in no meeting before 2027.
Russia’s Putin says no point meeting Ukraine’s Zelenskyy for now
No meeting before 2027 rises to 87%3%
Putin publicly dismissed the possibility of meeting Zelenskyy, stating military action would continue until Russia's goals are met, signaling no imminent breakthrough in talks and supporting the market's high probability for no meeting.
Putin rejects Zelenskyy's proposal for face-to-face meeting, sees no point
No meeting before 2027 rises to 90%2%
On June 5, 2026, Putin publicly rejected Zelenskyy's proposal for a direct meeting, stating he saw no point in it. This rejection reinforced the stalemate and lowered market expectations for a meeting before 2027, especially outside Moscow, which Zelenskyy refuses to visit.
Putin says no point meeting Zelensky over ending Ukraine war
Putin reiterated his refusal to meet Zelenskyy, calling Zelenskyy’s letter 'rude' and emphasizing that peace talks should follow long-term agreements rather than ceasefires. This reinforced market confidence in no meeting occurring soon.
Donald Trump supports Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, urges compromises
Turkey rises to 5%2%
Former US President Donald Trump publicly stated that a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin would be 'great' and that both sides would need to make compromises, providing some market optimism for a meeting possibility.
Kremlin official reiterates Moscow as sole venue for Putin-Zelenskyy meeting
Russia dips to 1%1%
On June 5, 2026, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov stated that Moscow remains the only acceptable location for a meeting with Zelenskyy, emphasizing that talks must be well-prepared and aimed at concrete results. This stance reinforced Russia's conditions and limited the possibility of a neutral venue meeting.
Putin rejects Zelenskyy's call for talks, sees no point in meeting
No meeting before 2027 rises to 90%2%
Putin publicly dismissed Zelenskyy's proposal for a face-to-face meeting, stating he saw no point in it and reaffirming Russia's war aims. This rejection reinforced market expectations that no meeting would occur before 2027.
Putin rejects Zelenskyy’s call for immediate face-to-face talks, sees 'no point' now
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%3%
Putin publicly dismissed the idea of meeting Zelenskyy at this time, stating the only point would be for Ukraine to stop advancing Russian forces. This hardened market sentiment toward no meeting before 2027, pushing that outcome's price higher.
Trump backs Zelenskyy's proposal for direct talks with Putin
No meeting before 2027 dips to 78%3%
U.S. President Donald Trump publicly supported the idea of a face-to-face meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, stating it would be 'great' and that both sides would need to make compromises, adding further diplomatic weight to the proposal.
Zelenskyy publishes open letter to Putin proposing face-to-face meeting in neutral country
Turkey rises to 6%3%
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy sent his first direct public letter to Vladimir Putin since the 2022 invasion, proposing a face-to-face meeting to negotiate an end to the war. He explicitly suggested Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab states as potential neutral hosts, which boosted the odds for Turkey while slightly lowering the probability of 'No meeting before 2027'.
Putin rebuffs Zelensky’s call for face-to-face talks, saying there is ‘no point’
No meeting before 2027 rises to 87%3%
Russian President Putin rejected Zelenskyy’s proposal for direct talks, stating there was no point in meeting now without Ukraine halting its military advances and meeting Russia's demands. This hardened market sentiment against a near-term meeting.
Zelenskyy publicly calls for face-to-face meeting and full ceasefire in open letter to Putin
No meeting before 2027 rises to 87%2%
Zelenskyy issued a rare open letter proposing a direct meeting with Putin in a neutral country such as Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab states, and offered a full ceasefire during negotiations. This renewed hope for talks but Putin dismissed the idea, keeping market confidence in a meeting low.
Zelenskyy publishes open letter proposing face-to-face meeting with Putin in neutral venues
Switzerland rises to 3%2%
Zelenskyy issued an open letter proposing a direct meeting with Putin in Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab countries, renewing diplomatic momentum and slightly increasing probabilities for these venues.
Putin rejects Zelenskyy's meeting proposal, says 'no point' in talks now
No meeting before 2027 rises to 85%2%
Putin publicly dismissed Zelenskyy's call for a face-to-face meeting, calling the letter 'boorish' and stating there was no point in meeting without Ukraine stopping its military advances. This rejection kept the market skeptical about a near-term meeting.
Zelenskyy calls for face-to-face meeting and full ceasefire in open letter to Putin
Switzerland dips to 1%2%
Zelenskyy publicly proposed a face-to-face meeting with Putin and a full ceasefire, suggesting neutral venues like Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab states. The Kremlin responded by inviting Zelenskyy to Moscow, which he rejected, maintaining stalemate and lowering meeting location probabilities.
Zelenskyy calls for direct face-to-face meeting with Putin and full ceasefire
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 68%9%
Zelenskyy sent an open letter proposing a direct meeting with Putin in a neutral country and a full ceasefire, aiming to revive stalled peace efforts; the Kremlin acknowledged the letter but reiterated meeting only in Moscow.
Putin rebuffs Zelenskyy’s call for face-to-face talks, saying there is ‘no point’
Putin publicly dismissed the idea of a meeting with Zelenskyy, stating there was no point unless Ukraine stopped advancing militarily. This rejection reinforced market expectations that no meeting would occur before 2027.
Zelenskyy Sends Open Letter to Putin Proposing Direct Meeting in Neutral Country
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy published an open letter to Vladimir Putin proposing a face-to-face meeting in a neutral country like Turkey, Switzerland, or an Arab state to negotiate an end to the war, while ruling out Moscow or Kyiv.
Zelenskyy proposes face-to-face meeting and full ceasefire in open letter to Putin
Zelenskyy publicly called for a direct meeting and ceasefire, to which the Kremlin responded that Putin was ready to meet in Moscow anytime, reinforcing the Kremlin's stance on meeting location and conditions.
Zelenskyy Proposes Direct Meeting in Open Letter to Putin
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 86%7%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy sent a sharply worded open letter to Vladimir Putin proposing a face-to-face meeting to negotiate an end to the war, acknowledging that the US was focused on Iran.
Zelenskyy issues open letter proposing direct peace talks with Putin in neutral venues
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 84%6%
Zelenskyy called for a high-level meeting with Putin in Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab countries, demanding a full ceasefire and prisoner exchange as preconditions, signaling a serious diplomatic push to end the war.
Zelenskyy publicly proposes face-to-face meeting and full ceasefire in open letter to Putin
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 90%8%
Zelenskyy issued a rare open letter proposing direct talks with Putin, suggesting neutral venues like Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab states, and calling for a full ceasefire. The Kremlin responded by reiterating Zelenskyy is welcome in Moscow anytime, but Putin rejected the proposal shortly after, dampening hopes for a meeting.
Zelenskyy’s open letter names Switzerland, Turkey and Arab states as possible hosts for a Putin‑Zelensky meeting
Switzerland rises to 2%1%
Zelenskyy published an open letter proposing a face‑to‑face meeting and suggested neutral venues – Switzerland, Turkey or Arab states (Qatar/UAE). The explicit mention of these locations lifted the market probabilities for those three outcomes and pulled down the “No meeting” chance.
Putin says Moscow can host Zelenskyy any time
Belarus plunges to 1%46%
Putin’s comment that a meeting could be held in Moscow “any time” was quickly dismissed by Zelenskyy, which caused a brief rise then drop in the “Russia”‑adjacent options (Belarus, Hungary). The market priced these locations down to 1 %‑2 % as the Kremlin’s offer was seen as non‑serious.
Putin can meet Zelenskyy only to finalise conflict arrangements
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 85%5%
Putin publicly reiterated that any meeting could only happen after a final peace agreement was ready, reinforcing the market’s belief that a summit was improbable before 2027.
Zelenskyy publishes open letter proposing face-to-face meeting with Putin in neutral country
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 83%6%
Zelenskyy publicly proposed a meeting with Putin in Switzerland, Turkey, or an Arab country, offering a full ceasefire during talks. Putin rejected the offer as 'boorish' and saw no point in meeting, dampening market hopes for a near-term meeting.
Zelenskyy urges Putin to meet, lists possible host countries
US rises to 5%2%
Zelenskyy published an open letter to Putin proposing a direct meeting, naming Switzerland, Turkey and Arab states as possible venues. The announcement spurred a small rise in the “US” outcome (who could host) from 3 % to 5 % (price before = 3, price after = 5) and a slight dip in “No meeting” as the prospect of a meeting increased.
Zelensky proposes face-to-face meeting, 'full ceasefire' in open letter to Putin
Switzerland rises to 2%1%
Zelenskyy publicly called for a direct meeting and a full ceasefire, signaling readiness for talks and raising market interest in a meeting occurring soon, especially in neutral locations.
Zelenskyy proposes direct peace talks with Putin in open letter
No meeting before 2027 dips to 80%3%
Zelenskyy issued an open letter proposing a direct meeting with Putin in a neutral venue, calling for a full ceasefire and prisoner exchange. Putin rejected the offer, demanding Ukraine surrender Donetsk region, which hardened market sentiment against a meeting.
Zelenskyy publicly calls for direct face-to-face talks with Putin in neutral countries
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 76%8%
Zelenskyy sent an open letter proposing direct negotiations with Putin in neutral venues like Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab states, offering a full ceasefire and prisoner exchange, but Putin rejected the proposal, maintaining conditions and refusing early talks.
Zelenskyy issues open letter proposing direct peace talks with Putin
Switzerland rises to 2%1%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy publicly proposed a face-to-face meeting with Putin in a neutral location to negotiate an end to the war, calling for a ceasefire and prisoner exchange. This renewed diplomatic push increased market interest in a potential meeting, especially in Switzerland and Turkey.
Zelenskyy proposes meeting with Putin, cites Switzerland, Turkey, Arab states as venues
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 84%6%
Zelenskyy issued an open letter proposing a direct meeting and naming possible host countries (Switzerland, Turkey, Arab states). The mention of Switzerland and Turkey caused the market to push those options into the low‑single‑digit range, while “No meeting” surged to over 80 %.
Zelenskyy publicly proposes face-to-face meeting with Putin in neutral country
Zelenskyy sent an open letter proposing a face-to-face meeting with Putin in a neutral third country such as Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab states, emphasizing the need for leaders to resolve key issues. This was a significant public diplomatic initiative but was rejected by Putin.
Zelenskyy proposes face-to-face meeting with Putin in open letter
Zelenskyy publicly called for a direct meeting with Putin to end the war, suggesting neutral venues like Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab states, raising hopes but met with Kremlin skepticism, impacting multiple venue options.
Zelenskyy proposes face-to-face meeting with Putin in open letter
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 85%6%
Zelenskyy publicly proposed a direct meeting with Putin in a neutral country such as Switzerland, Turkey, or an Arab nation, calling for a full ceasefire and prisoner exchange. This was a major diplomatic initiative but was met with Putin's rejection, maintaining stalemate.
Zelenskyy calls for direct meeting with Putin proposing neutral venues and full ceasefire
Switzerland rises to 53%2%
Zelenskyy issued an open letter proposing a face-to-face meeting with Putin in neutral countries like Turkey or Switzerland and called for a full ceasefire. This renewed diplomatic push briefly affected market prices, especially for Switzerland and Qatar/UAE options.
Zelenskyy proposes face-to-face meeting with Putin in neutral venues including Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab countries
In an open letter, Zelenskyy proposed a direct meeting with Putin to end the war, suggesting neutral venues such as Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab countries, and called for a full ceasefire during negotiations. This raised hopes for a meeting outside Russia or Belarus.
Zelenskyy invites Putin to Kyiv for peace talks, refusing to travel to Moscow or Belarus
No meeting before 2027 dips to 81%1%
Zelenskyy challenged Putin to meet in Kyiv, emphasizing Ukraine's sovereignty and rejecting Moscow or Belarus as venues. The Kremlin reiterated its invitation to Kyiv but Putin did not accept, maintaining the stalemate.
Zelenskyy proposes direct face-to-face peace talks with Putin in open letter
No meeting before 2027 dips to 82%2%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy publicly called for direct negotiations with Putin, proposing a meeting in a neutral country and offering a full ceasefire during talks. This raised hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough but was met with cautious responses.
Zelenskyy publicly proposes face-to-face meeting with Putin in neutral countries
Switzerland rises to 2%1%
Zelenskyy called for direct talks with Putin, suggesting Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab countries as hosts, and offered a full ceasefire during negotiations. This raised hopes but did not lead to confirmed meeting plans, causing minor market shifts.
Zelenskyy publishes open letter proposing face-to-face meeting with Putin in neutral countries
Turkey rises to 5%2%
Zelenskyy publicly called for direct talks with Putin, suggesting Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab countries as venues, and proposed setting a clear date. This renewed hope for a meeting and caused market shifts favoring Turkey and Switzerland.
Zelenskyy calls for face-to-face meeting with Putin in open letter
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%3%
Zelenskyy publicly proposed a direct meeting with Putin in a neutral country such as Switzerland, Turkey, or an Arab nation, calling for a full ceasefire during talks. This renewed diplomatic push increased market attention on the possibility of a meeting but was met with skepticism.
Kremlin reiterates invitation for Zelenskyy to meet Putin in Moscow under conditions
Russia plunges to 2%42%
The Kremlin stated Putin is ready to meet Zelenskyy in Moscow if the meeting is well prepared and aimed at concrete results, but Zelenskyy rejected Moscow as a venue, maintaining diplomatic stalemate and low market confidence in a meeting.
Zelenskyy publishes open letter proposing face-to-face meeting with Putin in neutral country
Zelenskyy publicly proposed a direct meeting with Putin to end the war, suggesting Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab countries as venues, and offering a full ceasefire during talks. This renewed diplomatic push increased market interest in these locations and the possibility of a meeting.
Putin rejects Zelenskyy’s offer to meet, says there is ‘no point’
No meeting before 2027 rises to 83%2%
Putin publicly rejected Zelenskyy’s proposal for a face-to-face meeting in a third country, calling the letter 'boorish' and stating no point in meeting until a peace deal is ready, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting.
Zelenskyy’s open letter proposes meeting in Switzerland, Turkey or Arab state
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%3%
Zelenskyy published an open letter proposing a meeting in Switzerland, Turkey or an Arab state. The market’s “No meeting” probability spiked as analysts deemed the proposal unlikely to be accepted, pushing the price to a new high of 84 %.
Zelenskyy Publishes Scathing Open Letter to Putin Proposing Face-to-Face Summit
Zelenskyy sent a direct open letter proposing a face-to-face meeting in a neutral country like Switzerland, Turkey, or an Arab state, while simultaneously taunting Putin over his age and military setbacks.
Zelenskyy suggests Arab countries as possible hosts for peace talks with Putin
Qatar / UAE dips to 4%1%
Zelenskyy mentioned in his letter that Arab countries, along with Switzerland and Turkey, could host the face-to-face peace talks. This broadened the potential venues and slightly influenced market prices for Qatar/UAE and Saudi Arabia, though these remained low probability outcomes.
Zelenskyy publishes open letter to Putin proposing face-to-face meeting
No meeting before 2027 dips to 77%4%
Zelenskyy issued a direct open letter to Putin proposing a face-to-face meeting in a neutral third country, suggesting Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab states as potential hosts.
Zelenskyy proposes face-to-face meeting with Putin in open letter suggesting neutral venues
Turkey rises to 6%3%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy published an open letter to Putin proposing direct talks to end the war, suggesting neutral countries like Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab states as possible meeting locations, and ruling out Moscow and Kyiv. This renewed bid for peace talks increased market interest in Turkey as a potential meeting site and slightly decreased the chance of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy’s open letter offers meeting in Switzerland, Turkey or an Arab state
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 86%5%
Zelenskyy published an open letter proposing a direct meeting and naming Switzerland, Turkey and Arab states as possible venues. The market’s probability of a meeting collapsed, sending the “No meeting before 2027” price sharply higher to 86 % by 10 Jun 2026.
Zelenskyy publicly calls for face-to-face negotiations with Putin in neutral country
Turkey rises to 6%4%
Zelenskyy published an open letter proposing direct talks with Putin, suggesting Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab states as venues and offering a full ceasefire and prisoner exchange. This significantly increased market interest in a meeting, especially in Turkey and neutral venues.
Trump supports Zelenskyy’s plan for direct talks with Putin, urges compromises
US President Trump welcomed Zelenskyy’s proposal for a meeting with Putin and emphasized the need for compromises from both sides, providing diplomatic encouragement but no concrete meeting plans.
Zelenskyy proposes direct peace meeting with Putin emphasizing neutral venues and ceasefire
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 81%5%
In an open letter, Zelenskyy proposed direct peace talks with Putin, suggesting neutral locations like Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab countries, and called for a full ceasefire and prisoner exchange. This proposal briefly increased market interest in meeting venues but faced rejection from Moscow.
Kremlin says Zelenskyy can meet Putin in Moscow anytime, Zelenskyy rejects Moscow venue
No meeting before 2027 dips to 78%3%
In response to Zelenskyy's letter, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed the Kremlin had seen the letter and said Zelenskyy could meet Putin in Moscow anytime. Zelenskyy preemptively ruled out Moscow as a meeting location, maintaining his stance for a neutral venue. This exchange maintained market uncertainty but reinforced the low probability of a meeting in Moscow, indirectly supporting the 'No meeting before 2027' outcome.
Putin dismisses Zelenskyy’s meeting proposal, sees 'no point' in talks now
Putin publicly rejected the idea of meeting Zelenskyy at this time, stating the only point would be for Ukraine to stop its military advances, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy publishes open letter to Putin proposing direct meeting in neutral venue
Qatar / UAE rises to 6%3%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy issued a rare, direct public letter to Vladimir Putin proposing a face-to-face meeting in a neutral country like Switzerland, Turkey, or an Arab state, accompanied by a full ceasefire.
Zelenskyy proposes direct meeting with Putin in open letter, Putin rebuffs
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 89%7%
Zelenskyy sent a sharply worded open letter inviting Putin to meet in person to negotiate peace, emphasizing direct engagement and rejecting previous peace proposals. Putin publicly dismissed the invitation as pointless and rude, reinforcing the diplomatic stalemate and reducing chances of a meeting soon.
Trump supports Zelenskyy’s proposal for direct talks with Putin to end war
No meeting before 2027 rises to 83%1%
US President Trump expressed support for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, claiming credit for bringing them closer to talks, but acknowledged compromises were needed, which had limited effect on market prices given Putin’s rejection.
Putin says Zelensky could meet in Moscow “any time” amid SPIEF
During the Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), Putin signaled that Zelenskyy could meet “any time” in Moscow, briefly reviving the prospect of a meeting on Russian soil and nudging the Turkey probability upward as Turkey was repeatedly mentioned as a possible venue.
Zelenskyy reiterates readiness for direct talks with Putin to end the war
During a press conference with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Zelenskyy emphasized his willingness to hold direct talks with Putin in any format rather than waiting for other global conflicts to resolve.
Ukrainian drones strike St. Petersburg oil terminal ahead of Putin visit
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%1%
Ukraine launched drone attacks on critical infrastructure in St. Petersburg, Russia, including an oil terminal and naval base, demonstrating Ukraine's capability to strike deep into Russian territory, which increased tensions ahead of proposed peace talks.
Trump says a Zelenskyy‑Putin meeting would be great as leaders meet in Kyiv
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 86%6%
During a joint news conference with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Zelenskyy reiterated his call for a direct meeting, while Trump publicly said a meeting would be “great”. The market’s confidence in a meeting dipped, pushing the “No meeting” price higher.
Putin dismisses Zelenskyy’s invitation at NATO press conference
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%3%
At a NATO press conference Putin mocked Zelenskyy’s earlier invitation and again ruled out meeting, reinforcing the market’s “No meeting” trajectory near the end of the analysis window.
Zelenskyy calls for meeting and ceasefire in letter to Putin
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%3%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy publicly urged direct engagement with Putin to end the war, calling for a face-to-face meeting and ceasefire. This raised market hopes for a meeting but was tempered by ongoing conflict and Putin's stance.
Kremlin says Putin will meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow to sign agreements
Peskov reiterated that any meeting would be limited to Moscow and only for signing already‑agreed terms, cementing the expectation that no neutral‑ground meeting will occur before 2027.
Zelenskyy urges diplomatic talks before winter to pressure Putin
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%2%
Zelenskyy emphasized the need to find a diplomatic way to sit and speak before winter, depending on increased pressure on Putin, signaling ongoing efforts but no imminent meeting, supporting the high market probability of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy urges U.S. to pressure Putin for a pre‑winter summit
US rises to 3%1%
In a CBS interview Zelenskyy emphasized the need for a U.S.‑backed diplomatic push before winter, mentioning possible U.S. venues and reinforcing the “US” outcome as a possible host for a future summit.
Putin visits Kazakhstan amid talks on regional alliances and war status
Putin attended a summit in Kazakhstan, emphasizing Russia's strategic ties in the region but offering no indication of imminent talks with Zelenskyy. This reinforced the low market price for Kazakhstan as a meeting venue and the overall low likelihood of a meeting before 2027.
Putin visits Kazakhstan amid regional diplomacy and CSTO meetings
Kazakhstan rises to 2%1%
Putin's state visit to Kazakhstan and participation in regional security meetings underscored Russia's focus on Eurasian alliances rather than direct peace talks with Ukraine. This maintained low market interest in Kazakhstan as a meeting venue and reinforced the dominance of no meeting before 2027.
Putin begins state visit to Kazakhstan discussing joint projects
Putin's visit to Kazakhstan focused on bilateral cooperation and economic projects, signaling Russia's regional priorities and not indicating any imminent meeting with Zelenskyy, which maintained market skepticism about a meeting.
Zelenskyy appeals to US for missile defense amid ongoing conflict
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%2%
Zelenskyy sent a letter to US President Trump requesting missile defense systems to counter Russian missile attacks, signaling ongoing conflict and reducing likelihood of imminent peace talks or meetings, supporting the market's high probability of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy meets Belarus opposition leader Tsikhanouskaya in Kyiv
Zelenskyy met Belarusian opposition leader Tsikhanouskaya in Kyiv, signalling increased attention on Belarus as a possible venue, which lifted the “Belarus” probability modestly.
Zelenskyy warns of limited window for diplomatic breakthrough before winter
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%2%
Zelenskyy emphasized a critical six-month window to seize battlefield initiative and strengthen his hand for peace talks, highlighting the urgency of diplomatic efforts and the need for international pressure on Russia, sustaining market belief in a meeting but with timing uncertainty.
Putin and Lukashenko hold joint nuclear‑drill video call
Belarus rises to 1%1%
A joint video‑call between Putin and Belarusian leader Lukashenko on nuclear drills highlighted Belarus’s deepening involvement with Russia, nudging the Belarus outcome upward from 0 % to 1 % as traders reassessed the likelihood of a meeting on Belarusian soil.
Roman Abramovich secretly meets Zelenskyy in Kyiv to deliver meeting proposal to Putin
On May 21, 2026, Roman Abramovich flew to Kyiv and met with Zelenskyy, acting as an intermediary to convey Zelenskyy's proposal for a personal meeting with Putin. This event raised market speculation about a possible meeting but did not lead to immediate progress.
Putin visits China, strengthens strategic partnership
Putin's visit to China reinforced Russia's diplomatic ties with China but did not advance prospects for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, maintaining low market interest in China as a meeting venue.
Putin visits China, strengthening Russia-China ties amid Ukraine war
Putin's state visit to China reaffirmed the strategic partnership between the two countries, with no indication of willingness to meet Zelenskyy, reinforcing Russia's stance on the conflict and limiting prospects for a meeting in China.
Putin conducts state visit to China to reinforce strategic partnership
China rises to 2%1%
Vladimir Putin traveled to Beijing to meet Xi Jinping, emphasizing bilateral cooperation amid global tensions, though no direct Ukraine peace breakthroughs emerged.
Putin visits China for 25th state visit, strengthening ties with Xi Jinping
Putin's visit to China reaffirmed the strategic partnership between Russia and China, signaling Russia's diplomatic focus away from direct talks with Ukraine and possibly affecting market confidence in China as a meeting venue.
Putin visits China for strategic talks with Xi Jinping
Putin's official visit to China for talks with Xi Jinping reinforced Russia's diplomatic focus on China amid stalled peace talks with Ukraine, reducing likelihood of imminent Zelenskyy-Putin meeting and supporting market preference for no meeting before 2027.
Putin visits China for strategic talks with Xi Jinping
Putin made a state visit to China, reinforcing the Russia-China strategic partnership amid ongoing war tensions. This visit underscored Russia's pivot to China but did not indicate any imminent Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, keeping China as a low-probability venue.
Vladimir Putin conducts state visit to China to meet Xi Jinping
China rises to 3%2%
Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Beijing for a high-profile state visit to discuss strategic cooperation, keeping China in the diplomatic spotlight but yielding no progress on Ukraine peace talks.
Kyiv says Turkey can mediate Zelensky‑Putin talks
Turkey rises to 5%2%
Ukraine’s foreign ministry reiterated that Turkey could mediate a Zelensky‑Putin summit, renewing attention on Ankara as a possible venue and nudging the “Turkey” probability up from 3 % to 5 % (price before = 3, price after = 5).
Zelenskyy publicly invites Putin to Kyiv for talks, rejects Moscow and Belarus
No meeting before 2027 rises to 86%2%
Zelenskyy issued a bold public invitation to Putin to meet in Kyiv, challenging him to come if he dares, while firmly rejecting Moscow and Belarus as venues. This hardened the market's view that a meeting in Russia or Belarus is unlikely and increased the probability of no meeting before 2027.
Kremlin says Putin will meet Zelenskyy only after peace deal finalized
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%4%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin is prepared to meet Zelenskyy only after all major terms of a Ukraine settlement are finalized, reinforcing the market's dominant expectation of no meeting before 2027 without a comprehensive agreement.
Kremlin clarifies no concrete plan to end war despite Putin's remarks
No meeting before 2027 dips to 75%3%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov tempered expectations by stating there was no concrete plan to end the war yet and that a great deal of preparatory work remained before any face-to-face meeting could occur.
Kremlin says no specifics on ending Ukraine war despite Putin’s words
No meeting before 2027 dips to 75%4%
The Kremlin clarified that there were no concrete plans for a peace summit, reinforcing uncertainty about any imminent meeting. This prompted a further dip in the “No meeting before 2027” probability (from 79 % to 75 %) and a modest rise in the “Turkey” outcome (from 5 % to 5 %).
Zelenskyy ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan after US-led talks stall
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%4%
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy stated readiness to meet Putin there, signaling openness to neutral venues other than Russia or Belarus, but no meeting was scheduled, keeping market skepticism high.
Kremlin insists Putin will meet Zelenskyy only after final peace deal is completed
No meeting before 2027 drops to 75%8%
The Kremlin clarified that Putin's meeting with Zelenskyy would only occur to finalize a comprehensive peace agreement, underscoring Moscow's position that no summit will happen without a concluded deal, which tempered market optimism about an early meeting.
Analysts cite Qatar and UAE as possible venues after Putin’s third‑country offer
Qatar / UAE rises to 4%1%
Following Putin’s openness to a third‑country meeting, speculation surfaced that the Gulf states (Qatar/UAE) could act as hosts. Traders nudged the “Qatar / UAE” outcome up from 3 % to 4 % (price before = 3 %, after = 4 %).
Zelenskyy welcomes Putin's willingness to meet, says format must be found
No meeting before 2027 rises to 74%1%
In his evening address, Zelenskyy noted that Putin finally expressed readiness for real meetings outside Russia, stating that Ukraine has long been ready and a suitable format must now be established.
Putin suggests his war on Ukraine is ending and he could meet Zelensky abroad
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%3%
Putin reiterated willingness to meet Zelensky outside Russia, reinforcing that any meeting would require a comprehensive accord, which further dampened short‑term expectations and kept the “No meeting” price near its peak.
Putin suggests willingness to meet Zelenskyy in third country if peace deal reached
Turkey dips to 2%1%
Putin indicated openness to meeting Zelenskyy in a neutral country to endorse a comprehensive peace accord, but only after a deal was finalized. This tempered market expectations for an imminent meeting, keeping probabilities low for neutral venues like Turkey or Switzerland.
Putin suggests war may be ending and open to meeting Zelenskyy in third country
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 85%5%
Putin publicly stated the war might be coming to an end and expressed willingness to meet Zelenskyy in a third country if a comprehensive peace deal is reached. This tentative openness influenced market sentiment but did not lead to a confirmed meeting.
Putin signals war may end, open to third‑country meeting with Zelenskyy
Russia rises to 2%1%
Putin suggested the war was ‘coming to an end’ and that he could meet Zelenskyy in a third country to endorse a comprehensive accord. The report nudged the “Russia” outcome slightly upward but did not change the dominant market view.
Zelenskyy confirms Putin is ready for real meetings, but format must be found
Turkey rises to 5%2%
Zelenskyy stated that Putin is finally ready for real meetings and that Ukraine has long been ready, but a format for the meeting must be agreed upon. This reinforced market expectations of a meeting but with uncertainty on location and timing.
Zelensky confirms prisoner exchange and readiness to meet Putin
Switzerland rises to 2%1%
Zelenskyy confirmed preparations for a large prisoner exchange and stated he was ready to meet Putin, signaling progress in negotiations and raising hopes for a meeting, impacting market prices positively for Switzerland and US venues.
Putin says he is open to meeting Zelenskyy outside Russia
Putin publicly announced willingness to meet Zelenskyy in a third country once a lasting peace deal was reached, the first such statement. The news increased speculation that a meeting could occur outside Russia, nudging the “US” and “Qatar / UAE” odds upward while slightly denting the “No meeting” price.
Zelenskyy says Putin finally ready for real meetings, but format needed
Zelenskyy stated that Putin is finally ready for real meetings and that Ukraine has long been ready, but a format for the meeting must be found. This indicated progress in willingness but no confirmed meeting, supporting the market's high probability of no meeting before 2027.
Putin states conditions for meeting with Zelensky
Putin declared he would only meet Zelensky to sign a final peace treaty, not before an agreement is reached, which tempered market expectations for an early meeting and affected the perceived likelihood of venues.
Zelenskyy confirms Putin is finally ready for real meetings, format needed
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%4%
Zelenskyy stated that Putin is finally ready for real meetings and that a format must be found to bring the war to an end. This statement raised hopes for a meeting but also emphasized the need for agreement on conditions, maintaining market uncertainty.
Putin signals openness to meeting Zelenskyy with conditions
No meeting before 2027 rises to 82%3%
Russian President Putin publicly indicated a potential willingness to meet Zelenskyy either in Moscow or a neutral country, aiming for a comprehensive solution to end the war. However, he attached unspecified conditions, maintaining a hardline stance that complicated prospects for an immediate meeting.
Putin suggests Russia’s war on Ukraine ‘coming to an end’ and openness to third-country talks
Putin indicated willingness to meet Zelenskyy in a third country if a peace deal is finalized, marking a rare openness to negotiations outside Russia. This raised market interest in neutral venues but was tempered by ongoing military pressure and unresolved issues.
Putin reiterates meeting Zelenskyy only to finalize peace agreement
No meeting before 2027 dips to 73%1%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov and Putin himself emphasized that any meeting with Zelenskyy would be solely to finalize a peace treaty, not for preliminary talks, maintaining Russia's firm precondition and limiting chances of an early summit.
Zelenskyy confirms readiness for real meetings, insists on venue outside Russia and Belarus
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%2%
Zelenskyy stated readiness for real meetings with Putin but rejected Russia and Belarus as venues, reinforcing market view that a meeting before 2027 is unlikely without a breakthrough.
Putin signals willingness to meet Zelenskyy in third country if peace deal reached
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 84%5%
Putin suggested the war might be ending and expressed openness to meeting Zelenskyy in a neutral third country to endorse a comprehensive peace accord. This was the first indication Putin might consider venues outside Russia, briefly raising hopes for a meeting in places like Switzerland or Arab states.
Zelenskyy confirms Putin ready for real meetings, format to be found
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%1%
Zelenskyy stated Putin is finally ready for real meetings, acknowledging Ukraine's push for talks and readiness to meet in any country except Russia or Belarus. This reinforced the possibility of a meeting but underscored the need to finalize format and conditions, keeping market cautious.
Putin says meeting possible only after comprehensive accord
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%3%
Putin reiterated that any meeting would only occur after a comprehensive peace accord, reaffirming the lack of a near‑term encounter and reinforcing the market’s “No meeting” trajectory.
Zelenskyy: Putin finally says he is ready for real meetings
Zelenskyy’s May 10 address stressed that Putin had finally signaled readiness for “real meetings”, but the same speech emphasised the requirement of a final framework, keeping the market weighted toward “No meeting”.
Zelenskyy rejects meeting Putin in Moscow, invites Putin to Kyiv
No meeting before 2027 drops to 80%7%
Zelenskyy confirmed readiness to meet Putin but ruled out Moscow as a venue, publicly inviting Putin to Kyiv instead, further complicating venue agreement and reducing chances of a meeting in 2026.
Putin states some US peace proposals are unacceptable, signaling challenges ahead
Russia rises to 4%3%
Putin publicly stated that certain points in the US peace plan are unacceptable, underscoring the difficulties in reaching a deal and contributing to a decline in the market's confidence in a meeting before 2027, while slightly increasing interest in Russia and the US as meeting venues.
Zelenskyy confirms Putin is ready for real meetings, format to be found
No meeting before 2027 dips to 81%2%
Zelenskyy stated that Putin is finally ready for real meetings and that Ukraine has long been ready, but the format and venue still need to be agreed upon, maintaining market uncertainty about timing and location.
Putin says he’ll meet Zelenskyy in a third nation after a lasting deal is struck
Qatar / UAE rises to 5%3%
During a televised interview, Putin said for the first time he would consider meeting Zelenskyy in a third country once a “lasting” deal was reached. The market momentarily shifted toward the “Qatar / UAE” and “Saudi Arabia” options, though the price rise was modest.
Putin for first time open to meeting Zelenskyy outside Russia after peace deal
No meeting before 2027 dips to 83%2%
Putin publicly stated willingness to meet Zelenskyy in a third country once a lasting peace agreement is reached, marking a significant shift from previous refusals. This tempered market optimism, as the meeting was conditioned on finalized agreements, limiting near-term prospects.
Putin signals willingness to meet Zelenskyy outside Russia after peace deal
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%1%
For the first time, Putin publicly stated he would meet Zelenskyy in a third country once a lasting peace agreement is reached, marking a significant shift from previous positions and fueling market speculation about a possible meeting venue outside Russia.
Putin says he will meet Zelenskyy in a third country if peace deal is finalised
Russia dips to 1%1%
For the first time Putin publicly said he was willing to meet Zelenskyy in a third country once a peace deal was reached, lifting the “Russia” barrier and boosting the probability of a meeting in a location other than Russia, which lifted the “Qatar / UAE” and “US” odds as well.
Putin signals openness to meeting Zelenskyy outside Russia after peace deal
Turkey rises to 5%2%
For the first time, Putin stated he would meet Zelenskyy in a third country once a lasting peace agreement is reached, marking a shift from previous positions and slightly increasing market confidence in a meeting occurring outside Russia or Belarus.
Putin expresses willingness to meet Zelenskyy outside Russia after peace deal
Qatar / UAE rises to 6%3%
For the first time, Putin said he is open to meeting Zelenskyy in a third country once a lasting peace agreement is reached, marking a significant shift in his stance and raising hopes for a future summit outside Russia.
Putin says he is open to meeting Zelenskyy in a third country once a peace deal is reached
No meeting before 2027 drops to 74%9%
For the first time, Vladimir Putin expressed openness to meeting Zelenskyy outside of Russia, provided a final peace treaty has already been agreed upon.
Putin signals openness to meet Zelenskyy in third country after peace deal
No meeting before 2027 dips to 81%2%
For the first time, Putin publicly stated willingness to meet Zelenskyy outside Russia once a long-term peace deal is reached, suggesting a meeting in a neutral country but only as a final step. This tempered market expectations for an imminent meeting and supported the 'No meeting before 2027' outcome.
Putin States Readiness for Real Meetings but Demands Zelenskyy Come to Moscow
No meeting before 2027 drops to 76%7%
Putin indicated he was open to face-to-face talks but insisted they must take place in Moscow or only in a third country once a final peace treaty is ready to be signed, which Ukraine rejected.
Putin expresses openness to meeting Zelenskyy outside Russia if peace deal reached
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 83%5%
For the first time, Putin stated willingness to meet Zelenskyy in a third country once a lasting peace deal is agreed upon, raising hopes for a neutral venue meeting but conditional on progress in negotiations.
Putin says he’s open to meeting Zelenskyy outside Russia
No meeting before 2027 rises to 3%2%
For the first time Putin said he would be open to meeting Zelenskyy in a third country, briefly reviving hopes for a neutral‑site summit and causing a modest rise in the “Switzerland”, “Qatar / UAE” and “Saudi Arabia” odds.
Putin says he’ll consider meeting Zelenskyy outside Russia
No meeting before 2027 dips to 73%4%
Putin publicly stated for the first time that he would consider meeting Zelenskyy outside Russia, raising hopes for a neutral‑venue meeting and temporarily lifting the “No meeting before 2027” price from 77 % to 73 %.
Putin signals readiness to meet Zelenskyy 'at any moment' with conditions
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 87%7%
Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin is ready to meet Zelenskyy in Moscow at any moment but only if a final peace agreement is to be signed, maintaining Russia's strict conditions and limiting meeting prospects.
Putin says he’s open to meeting Zelenskyy in a third country
Russia rises to 2%1%
For the first time Putin said he would be open to meeting Zelenskyy in a third country once a lasting deal is reached. The announcement slightly lifted the “Russia” and “Switzerland” odds but the overall market remained dominated by the “No meeting” outcome.
Putin says for first time he is open to meeting Zelenskyy outside Russia
Putin publicly stated willingness to meet Zelenskyy in a third country once a lasting deal is agreed upon, marking a significant shift in tone but still conditional, which did not translate into immediate meeting prospects, keeping market prices for meeting locations low.
Putin says open to meeting Zelenskyy outside Russia if lasting deal reached
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%2%
For the first time, Putin publicly stated willingness to meet Zelenskyy in a third country once a lasting peace deal is agreed upon, signaling a potential venue outside Russia but only conditional on agreement.
Putin open to meeting Zelenskyy outside Russia after years of refusal
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%2%
For the first time, Putin expressed willingness to meet Zelenskyy in a third country once a lasting peace deal is agreed upon. This softened stance raised some market hopes but was conditional and did not lead to immediate talks, so meeting location prices remained low except for 'No meeting'.
Putin signals openness to meeting Zelenskyy outside Russia for first time
No meeting before 2027 dips to 79%4%
Putin publicly stated willingness to meet Zelenskyy in a third country once a lasting deal is agreed upon, marking a shift in Kremlin stance and raising hopes for a future meeting, though no concrete plans were announced within the analysis window.
Ukraine confirms three-day ceasefire with Russia amid US mediation
No meeting before 2027 dips to 75%3%
Zelenskyy confirmed a three-day ceasefire arranged with Russia as part of US-led efforts, but the ceasefire was short-lived and did not lead to a meeting, reflecting ongoing tensions and stalled negotiations.
Russia declares Victory‑Day cease‑fire for May 8‑9 as Ukraine announces its own separate truce
Qatar / UAE dips to 2%1%
Russia unilaterally announced a two‑day Victory‑Day cease‑fire (May 8‑9). The competing cease‑fire declarations amplified speculation about a possible neutral‑ground meeting, slightly raising the Qatar/UAE probability.
Zelenskyy invites Putin to Kyiv for peace talks, challenging him to come if he dares
No meeting before 2027 drops to 78%7%
Zelenskyy publicly invited Putin to meet in Kyiv, refusing to travel to Moscow or Belarus, asserting Ukraine's sovereignty. This bold move was seen as a strategic challenge, increasing speculation about a meeting but also highlighting venue disagreements.
U.S.‑mediated three‑day ceasefire and 1,000‑for‑1,000 prisoner swap agreed by Russia and Ukraine
US rises to 2%1%
The United States brokered a three‑day cease‑fire (May 8‑10) and a prisoner‑exchange plan. Media coverage highlighted U.S. mediation, nudging the market probability for a meeting taking place on U.S. soil modestly upward.
Trump announces three-day ceasefire in Russia-Ukraine war
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 85%7%
US President Donald Trump announced a three-day ceasefire and prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine, mediated by the US, which was seen as a diplomatic effort to reduce hostilities and possibly pave the way for future talks.
Trump Announces Three-Day Ceasefire and Prisoner Swap Between Russia and Ukraine
US rises to 5%3%
U.S. President Donald Trump brokered a temporary three-day ceasefire and a major prisoner exchange, which briefly raised the probability of the U.S. hosting a future peace summit.
Putin meets US envoys in Moscow to discuss peace proposals
Russia rises to 3%2%
Russian President Putin held marathon talks with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Moscow to discuss peace proposals, indicating ongoing diplomatic engagement but also highlighting unresolved issues, which influenced market prices for Russia and the US as potential meeting locations.
Russian drone strikes cause major blackouts in Ukraine amid ongoing peace talks
No meeting before 2027 dips to 79%4%
Russian drone strikes on Ukrainian power grids caused blackouts during ongoing US-led peace talks, highlighting continued conflict and complicating prospects for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting. This sustained market odds favoring no meeting before 2027.
Kremlin reiterates Putin ready to meet Zelenskyy only for finalizing agreements
No meeting before 2027 dips to 79%4%
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov emphasized that Putin is ready to meet Zelenskyy in Moscow only if the meeting is productive and aimed at finalizing agreements, limiting chances of a meeting without prior progress. This reinforced market belief in no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy suggests Azerbaijan as possible meeting venue with Putin
No meeting before 2027 dips to 79%4%
On May 4, 2026, Zelenskyy indicated readiness to meet Putin in Azerbaijan after US-led talks stalled, broadening potential neutral venues for a summit. This statement reflected ongoing search for acceptable meeting locations but no confirmed meeting occurred.
Zelenskyy calls for diplomatic solution before winter amid battlefield shifts
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%1%
Zelenskyy emphasized the need for diplomatic talks before winter as Russia lost battlefield initiative, urging increased pressure on Putin. This reinforced market expectations that no meeting would occur soon without significant breakthroughs.
Second day of peace talks held in Abu Dhabi amid Russian attacks on Ukraine
Negotiators from Ukraine, Russia, and the US met in Abu Dhabi for a second day of talks aimed at ending the war, despite ongoing Russian attacks. This event supported the possibility of a meeting in Qatar/UAE and increased market interest in diplomatic venues.
Putin sets conditions for meeting Zelenskyy, emphasizing finalizing agreements
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%2%
Putin stated he would only meet Zelenskyy to finalize conflict agreements, indicating Russia's reluctance for early direct talks and dampening market expectations for a meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy says he is ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan
Zelenskyy publicly stated he was ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan, flagging a potential Caucasus venue and thereby increasing attention on neighboring states, which lifted the “Belarus” and “Kazakhstan” odds modestly.
Zelenskyy expresses readiness to meet Putin in Azerbaijan
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy stated he was ready to meet Putin in any country except Russia or Belarus, expanding the list of potential neutral venues and maintaining diplomatic momentum for a meeting.
Zelenskyy says ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan after US-led talks stall
Zelenskyy expressed readiness to meet Putin in Azerbaijan, signaling flexibility on venue and a push to revive stalled diplomacy, supporting market interest in Turkey and regional venues.
Zelenskyy ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan after US-led talks stall
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy stated readiness to meet Putin there, excluding Russia and Belarus as venues. This proposal highlighted Azerbaijan as a potential meeting place but did not confirm an imminent meeting, maintaining market caution.
Zelenskyy says ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan, excluding Russia and Belarus
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy expressed readiness to meet Putin there but excluded Russia and Belarus as venues. This reinforced the market's low confidence in meetings in Russia or Belarus and kept the probability of no meeting high.
Zelenskyy ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan after stalled US-led talks
Turkey rises to 5%1%
Zelenskyy publicly stated readiness to meet Putin in Azerbaijan, emphasizing willingness to negotiate outside Russia or Belarus, reflecting efforts to find neutral ground for talks amid stalled diplomacy.
Zelenskyy ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan but excludes Russia and Belarus
Belarus plunges to 1%46%
Zelenskyy stated readiness to meet Putin in Azerbaijan, signaling openness to neutral venues except Russia or Belarus, which affected market prices for Belarus and Russia-related options negatively.
Zelenskyy signals readiness to meet Putin in Azerbaijan after US-led talks stall
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy stated readiness to meet Putin there, excluding Russia and Belarus, highlighting Azerbaijan as a potential neutral venue and diversifying possible meeting locations beyond Turkey, though market impact was limited.
Zelenskyy says ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan during South Caucasus visit
Kazakhstan plunges to 1%48%
Zelenskyy expressed readiness to meet Putin in Azerbaijan, emphasizing willingness to negotiate outside Russia or Belarus. This briefly raised Kazakhstan and regional meeting location prospects but did not lead to a meeting.
Zelenskyy declares readiness to meet Putin in Azerbaijan
During a visit to Gabala, Zelenskyy stated he was willing to meet Putin in Azerbaijan, explicitly ruling out Russia or Belarus as acceptable venues.
Zelenskyy signals readiness to meet Putin in Azerbaijan
No meeting before 2027 plunges to 1%46%
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy expressed readiness to meet Putin there, emphasizing openness to negotiations in any format except on Russian or Belarusian soil, highlighting Azerbaijan's potential role as a neutral venue.
Zelenskyy says he is ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan
US plunges to 2%20%
Zelenskyy announced he was ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan after U.S.–led talks stalled, reinforcing the view that a meeting would most likely occur outside Russia and lowering the US outcome to 2 % while keeping “No meeting before 2027” high.
Zelenskyy visits Saudi Arabia for security and energy talks
Qatar / UAE rises to 4%1%
Zelenskyy held key talks with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman focusing on security cooperation and energy, highlighting Ukraine's diplomatic outreach to Arab countries, which were proposed as potential meeting venues with Putin.
Zelenskyy declares readiness to meet Putin in Azerbaijan
No meeting before 2027 rises to 85%2%
During a visit to the South Caucasus, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated he was ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan, reiterating his willingness to hold talks in any country except Russia or Belarus.
Zelenskyy ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan after stalled US-led talks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%1%
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy expressed readiness to meet Putin there, excluding Russia and Belarus, reflecting ongoing search for neutral venues amid stalled negotiations.
Zelenskyy says he is ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan amid stalled US talks
Turkey rises to 6%3%
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy expressed readiness to meet Putin there after US-led diplomatic talks stalled, suggesting a new potential neutral venue and briefly affecting market expectations for Turkey and nearby regions.
Zelenskyy says he is ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy expressed readiness to meet Putin there, excluding Russia and Belarus as venues, reflecting Ukraine's insistence on neutral ground and influencing market views on meeting locations.
Zelensky says he is ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan
Turkey rises to 5%2%
Zelensky visited Azerbaijan and said he was ready to meet Putin there, highlighting a new possible venue but still no concrete arrangement, keeping the market tilted toward “No meeting”.
Zelenskyy states readiness to meet Putin in Azerbaijan
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy expressed willingness to meet Putin there, expanding the list of potential neutral venues and signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts.
Zelenskyy says he is ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan
Qatar / UAE plunges to 2%47%
Zelenskyy visited Azerbaijan and said he was ready to meet Putin there, briefly lifting the “Qatar / UAE” odds (which also covered other Arab hosts) before they fell again.
Zelenskyy expresses readiness to meet Putin in Azerbaijan amid stalled talks
Qatar / UAE rises to 4%1%
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy stated he is ready to meet Putin there, emphasizing willingness to meet in any country except Russia or Belarus. This statement increased market interest in the Qatar/UAE option as a proxy for Middle Eastern venues.
Zelenskyy says he is ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan amid stalled talks
Kazakhstan rises to 50%1%
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy expressed readiness to meet Putin there, excluding Russia or Belarus as venues. This proposal for a neutral location briefly raised hopes for a meeting outside Russia, impacting market prices for Kazakhstan and other neutral options.
Zelenskyy expresses readiness to meet Putin in Azerbaijan amid stalled talks
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy stated he was ready to meet Putin there after US-led diplomatic talks stalled, signaling openness to neutral venues except Russia or Belarus. This raised some market interest in neutral locations but did not lead to immediate meeting prospects.
Zelenskyy visits Saudi Arabia to deepen defense and energy ties
Zelenskyy held productive talks with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, advancing agreements in security, energy, and infrastructure, signaling Ukraine's diplomatic outreach to Middle Eastern countries amid ongoing conflict.
Zelenskyy announces trilateral peace talks with Russia and US in UAE
Qatar / UAE rises to 3%1%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced that trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US would be held in the United Arab Emirates, signaling a diplomatic push that increased market interest in Qatar/UAE and Turkey as potential meeting locations.
Zelensky visits Saudi Arabia, holds ‘very productive’ meeting with Crown Prince
US rises to 3%1%
Zelenskyy’s visit to Saudi Arabia and his “very productive” meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman raised expectations of broader regional mediation, lifting the “US” outcome from 2 % to 3 % and the “Qatar / UAE” outcome from 3 % to 5 % over the next few days.
Ukraine formally requests Turkey's help to arrange Zelenskyy-Putin talks
Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha confirmed Kyiv's request to Turkey to organize a summit between Zelenskyy and Putin, reflecting Ukraine's preference for a neutral venue other than Russia or Belarus, slightly raising Turkey meeting odds.
Kremlin states Putin ready to meet Zelenskyy only to seal peace deals
Russia rises to 2%1%
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov emphasized Putin's willingness to meet Zelenskyy only for signing finalized peace agreements, suggesting that preliminary diplomatic work must precede any summit. This hardened stance likely dampened market optimism for a near-term meeting.
Kremlin reiterates Putin ready to meet Zelenskyy only to sign final peace agreement in Moscow
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%1%
The Kremlin confirmed that Putin is willing to meet Zelenskyy but only in Moscow and exclusively to sign a final peace agreement, ruling out preliminary talks or meetings in other locations. This hardened position further diminished the likelihood of a meeting before 2027 outside Moscow.
Kremlin states Putin ready to meet Zelenskyy only to finalize peace agreement
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%2%
The Kremlin announced that Putin would meet Zelenskyy solely to sign a final peace agreement, not for preliminary talks. This position signaled a high bar for any summit and suggested that without major concessions, a meeting was unlikely before 2027, reinforcing market expectations.
Kremlin states Putin open to talks only to seal peace deals, not exploratory meetings
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%3%
On April 23, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov emphasized that Putin is willing to meet Zelenskyy only to finalize peace agreements, not for preliminary talks, setting a high bar for any summit. This stance contributed to market skepticism about an imminent meeting.
Kremlin states Putin will meet Zelenskyy only to finalize peace agreement
The Kremlin clarified that Putin is willing to meet Zelenskyy solely to sign a final peace deal, not for preliminary talks, signaling a high bar for any summit and reducing the likelihood of a meeting before 2027.
US President Trump plans to invite Putin to G20 summit in Miami
US rises to 4%1%
Trump announced plans to invite Putin to the G20 summit in Miami in December 2026, raising speculation about a possible meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin on US soil. This contributed to a slight increase in the US meeting location probability.
Putin sets tough precondition for Zelenskyy meeting
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 84%6%
The Kremlin announced that a Putin‑Zelenskyy summit would only occur after concrete progress in lower‑level talks, further dampening expectations for a near‑term meeting and pushing odds toward the “No meeting” outcome.
Trump announces intent to invite Putin to G20 summit in Miami in December 2026
US dips to 2%1%
President Trump stated plans to invite Putin to the G20 summit in Miami, raising speculation about a possible meeting location in the US. However, doubts about Putin's attendance kept market prices for the US option low.
Kremlin says Putin will meet Zelenskyy only to finalize conflict arrangements in Moscow
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 83%5%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated Putin would meet Zelenskyy only to finalize agreements, with Moscow as the venue, which Ukraine rejected. This hardened positions and lowered chances of a meeting elsewhere, impacting market prices.
Putin ready to meet Zelensky only to finalize peace deal, Kremlin says
No meeting before 2027 rises to 85%4%
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin is willing to meet Zelensky but only at the stage of finalizing a peace agreement, indicating Russia's reluctance for preliminary talks and limiting the likelihood of a meeting before 2027.
Kremlin states Putin ready to meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow to finalize peace
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov announced that Putin would meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow and solely to sign a final peace agreement, not for preliminary negotiations, signaling a low likelihood of a summit elsewhere.
Ukraine pushes for Zelenskyy‑Putin summit to revive US‑led peace effort
Qatar / UAE rises to 5%2%
Ukraine’s chief diplomat publicly urged a Zelenskyy‑Putin summit to re‑ignite stalled US‑led peace talks. The announcement lifted the “Qatar / UAE” and “Turkey” odds briefly, before the market settled back to low levels as no concrete venue was identified.
Kremlin says Putin ready to meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow to finalize agreements
No meeting before 2027 dips to 77%4%
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated Putin would meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow and only to finalize agreements already reached, limiting the possibility of a neutral venue meeting and reducing market optimism for other locations.
Ukraine officially requests Turkey to host Zelenskyy-Putin meeting to reinvigorate peace talks
Ukraine's top diplomat publicly announced that Kyiv asked Turkey to host a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, emphasizing readiness to meet anywhere except Belarus or Russia, which boosted the market's confidence in Turkey as the meeting location.
Kremlin states Putin will meet Zelenskyy only to finalize conflict agreements
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 85%5%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin could meet Zelenskyy only to finalize agreements, implying no open-ended or preliminary talks would occur. This stance dampened market optimism for a meeting in a neutral location.
Kremlin states Putin ready to meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow to finalize agreements
Turkey dips to 2%1%
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov declared Putin's willingness to meet Zelenskyy but only in Moscow and only to finalize already reached agreements, limiting the possibility of a neutral venue meeting and reducing market prices for other locations.
Kremlin States Putin Will Only Meet Zelenskyy to Finalize Agreements
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%3%
In response to Ukraine's request for Turkey to host a summit, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin would only meet Zelenskyy to finalize concrete agreements, dampening hopes for exploratory talks.
Putin expresses readiness to meet Zelenskyy but insists on Moscow venue
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%4%
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated Putin is ready to meet Zelenskyy, but Zelenskyy has repeatedly ruled out Moscow as a venue, maintaining a key obstacle to a meeting and reinforcing market doubts.
Putin will meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow to finalise agreements
No meeting before 2027 rises to 85%1%
Kremlin spokesman Peskov said Putin would only meet Zelenskyy in Moscow and only to finalise conflict arrangements, effectively closing off all neutral‑country options and strengthening the market’s “No meeting” position.
Kremlin spokesman states Putin-Zelenskyy meeting only for finalizing conflict agreements
Peskov clarified that Putin would only meet Zelenskyy for the purpose of finalizing agreements on the conflict, signaling a significant shift in Russian diplomatic posture and reducing expectations for a meeting.
Ukraine formally requests Turkey to host Zelenskyy-Putin meeting
Turkey dips to 2%2%
Ukraine officially asked Turkey to help arrange a summit meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, positioning Turkey as a potential neutral venue and affecting market probabilities for Turkey.
Kremlin states Putin will meet Zelenskyy only to finalize conflict agreements
Russia dips to 1%1%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin is ready to meet Zelenskyy but only to finalize agreements on the conflict, emphasizing Moscow's position that any meeting must have a clear goal. This limited the market's optimism about a meeting in Russia or Belarus.
Kremlin says Putin will meet Zelenskyy only to finalize agreements in Moscow
Russia dips to 1%1%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated Putin would only meet Zelenskyy in Moscow to finalize agreements, rejecting other venues. This stance reduced market confidence in meetings outside Russia and increased skepticism about a meeting before 2027.
Kremlin says Putin can meet Zelenskiy only to agree final conflict arrangements
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin would only meet Zelenskyy to finalize agreements on the conflict, signaling Russia's firm stance on meeting conditions and reducing market optimism for a meeting elsewhere.
Ukraine pushes for direct Zelenskyy-Putin summit to revive peace talks
No meeting before 2027 dips to 81%3%
Ukraine's top diplomat advocated for a face-to-face summit between Zelenskyy and Putin to inject momentum into stalled US-led peace efforts. This renewed push came amid increased Ukrainian attacks and ongoing refusal by Putin to accept unconditional ceasefire.
Ukraine seeks Turkey as venue for Zelenskyy-Putin summit amid stalled talks
Turkey dips to 3%1%
Ukraine formally requested Turkey to host a potential Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, rejecting Belarus and Russia as venues. This move indicated Ukraine's preference for a neutral location but did not lead to a confirmed meeting, contributing to the decline in market prices for Turkey and other venues.
Kremlin states Putin can meet Zelenskyy only to finalize conflict arrangements
Turkey drops to 3%6%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin would only meet Zelenskyy to finalize agreements, implying no open-ended negotiations or new meetings would occur soon. This statement dampened market expectations for a meeting in neutral venues like Turkey or Switzerland.
Ukraine pushes for face-to-face talks between Zelenskyy and Putin to inject momentum
On April 22, 2026, Ukraine advocated for a face-to-face summit between Zelenskyy and Putin to revitalize stalled US-led peace efforts. Despite this push, Putin refused a ceasefire and conditions remained unmet, sustaining market skepticism about a meeting.
Putin can meet Zelenskyy only to agree final conflict arrangements, Kremlin says
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%3%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin would meet Zelenskyy only to finalize a settlement, effectively ruling out a neutral‑venue meeting and pulling the market back toward “No meeting before 2027”.
Ukraine pushes for Zelenskyy-Putin summit to revive US-led peace efforts
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 83%5%
Ukraine advocated for a face-to-face summit between Zelenskyy and Putin to inject momentum into stalled peace talks, signaling readiness for a ceasefire. This raised hopes for a meeting but with no confirmed location or date.
Putin reiterates meeting Zelenskyy only after final peace deal reached
No meeting before 2027 rises to 80%4%
Putin publicly stated on April 22, 2026, that a meeting with Zelenskyy would only occur as a final step to sign a peace treaty, possibly in a third country. This reinforced market expectations that no meeting would happen before 2027.
Ukraine pushes for Zelenskyy-Putin summit to revive peace talks
Turkey rises to 5%1%
Ukraine publicly advocated for a direct summit between Zelenskyy and Putin to inject momentum into stalled US-led peace efforts, with Turkey proposed as a potential host. This increased market interest in Turkey as a meeting venue but skepticism remained high due to Russia's conditions and ongoing conflict.
Kremlin Rejects Preliminary Talks, Stating Putin Will Only Meet Zelenskyy to Finalize Peace
No meeting before 2027 rises to 85%2%
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin is ready to meet Zelenskyy only to sign a finalized peace agreement in Moscow, rejecting preliminary talks or trilateral formats.
Ukraine asks Turkey to help arrange Zelenskyy-Putin summit meeting
Turkey rises to 3%1%
Ukraine formally requested Turkey's assistance to host a summit between Zelenskyy and Putin, signaling Kyiv's preference for a neutral venue outside Moscow or Belarus. This diplomatic move raised market interest in Turkey as a potential meeting location but faced uncertainty due to Russia's stance.
Ukraine asks Turkey to host Zelenskyy-Putin meeting to revive peace talks
Turkey dips to 2%2%
Ukraine formally requested Turkey to organize a summit-level meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, signaling a push for neutral ground talks. This was a key diplomatic move but Russia remained hesitant, limiting market optimism for a meeting in Turkey.
Ukraine formally asks Turkey to host Zelenskyy-Putin meeting to revive peace talks
Turkey rises to 6%3%
Ukraine's top diplomat announced that Kyiv has requested Turkey to host a summit between Zelenskyy and Putin to reinvigorate stalled peace negotiations, highlighting Turkey as a favored neutral venue and impacting market prices for Turkey and related options.
Kremlin says Putin can meet Zelenskyy only to finalize conflict arrangements
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin is ready to meet Zelenskyy only to agree on final conflict arrangements, emphasizing a narrow scope for any meeting and limiting market optimism for broader talks.
Kremlin says Putin ready to meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow to finalize agreements
Russia dips to 1%1%
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated Putin's willingness to meet Zelenskyy but only in Moscow and only to sign pre-negotiated agreements, limiting the possibility of a neutral venue and affecting market prices for Russia and other locations.
Kremlin says Putin will only meet Zelenskyy to finalize a prepared conflict agreement
In response to Ukraine's outreach to Turkey, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin is ready for a meeting but only to finalize and sign a completed peace agreement, rather than to conduct open-ended negotiations.
Kremlin Rejects Preliminary Talks, Saying Putin Will Only Meet to Finalize Peace Agreement
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%4%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded to Ukraine's proposal by stating that Putin would only meet Zelenskyy to sign a finalized conflict agreement, dampening hopes of an early summit.
Ukraine requests Turkey to host Zelenskyy-Putin meeting
Turkey dips to 3%3%
Ukraine formally asked Turkey to host a summit between Zelenskyy and Putin, signaling willingness to meet in neutral territory except Russia or Belarus. This raised hopes for a meeting but also underscored ongoing venue disputes.
Kremlin states Putin ready to meet Zelenskyy only to finalize peace agreements
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 83%7%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin is willing to meet Zelenskyy but only at the final stage of negotiations to finalize agreements, not for preliminary talks. This stance dampened expectations for an early meeting, supporting the 'No meeting before 2027' outcome.
Ukraine asks Turkey to host Zelenskyy-Putin meeting to revive peace talks
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 84%8%
Ukraine formally requested Turkey to host a summit between Zelenskyy and Putin to inject momentum into stalled US-led peace efforts, signaling a preference for neutral ground and excluding Russia and Belarus. This diplomatic move was a key factor in market activity, slightly increasing interest in Turkey as a meeting venue but mainly reinforcing the "No meeting before 2027" probability due to ongoing obstacles.
Ukraine proposes Turkey as venue for Zelenskyy-Putin peace talks
Turkey dips to 3%3%
Ukraine formally proposed Turkey as a potential venue for a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, aiming to break the diplomatic deadlock. This proposal was met with skepticism from Russia, which preferred Moscow as a venue, affecting market prices for Turkey and Russia options.
Zelenskyy demands direct talks with Putin as Istanbul peace summit nears
Ahead of a proposed peace summit in Istanbul, Zelenskyy insisted he would only attend if Putin is present, emphasizing the need for genuine negotiations. The Kremlin had not confirmed Putin's attendance, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about a meeting.
Ukraine asks Turkey to host Zelenskyy-Putin talks; Putin reluctant
Turkey plunges to 11%18%
Ukraine formally requested Turkey to organize a summit-level meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, with possible participation of Erdoğan and Trump. However, Putin was reported to be avoiding negotiations, keeping the market skeptical about a meeting.
Ukraine asks Türkiye to host Zelenskyy-Putin talks but Putin avoids meeting
Turkey dips to 3%4%
Ukraine proposed a leaders-level summit in Türkiye with possible participation by Erdoğan and Trump, but Putin avoided the meeting, dampening hopes for a near-term summit in Turkey.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister announces Zelenskyy ready for potential meeting with Putin in Türkiye
Turkey rises to 4%1%
Ukraine formally approached Turkey to organize a summit-level meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, possibly involving Erdogan and Trump, reinforcing Turkey's role as a strategic partner and a likely venue for talks, which supported a slight price increase for the Turkey outcome.
Ukrainian FM says Zelenskyy ready to meet Putin in Istanbul for peace talks
Turkey rises to 4%1%
On April 18, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha stated Zelenskyy is ready to meet Putin in Istanbul, signaling Ukraine's willingness to negotiate in a neutral location, which briefly raised hopes for a meeting.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov says no meeting planned between Putin and Zelensky
No meeting before 2027 dips to 81%2%
Lavrov publicly stated that no meeting between Putin and Zelensky was currently planned, emphasizing Moscow's cautious approach and the need for careful preparation, which dampened market expectations for a near-term summit.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister says Zelenskyy ready to meet Putin in Istanbul for peace talks
Ukraine publicly expressed readiness for a meeting in Istanbul with Putin, signaling willingness for political negotiations and a ceasefire, which briefly raised hopes for a meeting venue in Turkey.
Zelenskyy ready to meet Putin in Istanbul for peace talks, Ukrainian FM says
Turkey dips to 2%1%
Ukrainian Foreign Minister announced Zelenskyy's readiness to meet Putin in Istanbul, possibly with Turkish and US presidents present, indicating active pursuit of direct talks in Turkey. However, Putin's participation remained uncertain.
Ukraine signals readiness for Zelenskyy-Putin meeting in Türkiye with Erdoğan and Trump
Turkey rises to 4%1%
Ukraine proposed a meeting in Türkiye involving Zelenskyy, Putin, and possibly Erdoğan and Trump, showing active diplomatic efforts to break the deadlock and restart peace talks.
US-brokered Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Geneva end with little progress
No meeting before 2027 dips to 84%1%
Peace talks mediated by the US in Geneva concluded with minimal progress, as Zelenskyy accused Putin of stalling and Russia demanded territorial concessions that Ukraine rejected. This reinforced market skepticism about near-term direct meetings.
Ukraine Proposes Four-Way Summit in Turkey with Trump and Erdogan
No meeting before 2027 rises to 85%1%
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha confirmed Ukraine's willingness to meet Putin in Turkey, proposing a summit that would also include Donald Trump and Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Zelenskyy rules out Russia and Belarus as venues for talks
Russia dips to 1%1%
Zelenskyy publicly stated that peace negotiations with Putin cannot be held in Russia or Belarus, citing their roles as aggressors. This sharply reduced market confidence in Russia and Belarus as meeting venues, pushing their prices near zero.
Zelenskyy meets European leaders in London to discuss US peace plan and security
Zelenskyy met with British, French, and German leaders in London to coordinate on the US peace plan and security guarantees, showing European support but no direct meeting with Putin. This maintained market confidence in no meeting before 2027.
Putin declares Easter cease‑fire; Zelenskyy agrees to reciprocal pause
No meeting before 2027 dips to 81%3%
Putin announced a 32‑hour Easter cease‑fire that was quickly mirrored by Zelenskyy, creating a brief lull in host‑country speculation and causing the “No meeting before 2027” price to dip from 84 % to 81 % (price before = 84, price after = 81).
Ukraine's top aide sees progress toward peace deal with Russia
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 83%5%
Kyrylo Budanov, head of the President's Office and key Ukrainian negotiator, expressed optimism about nearing a peace deal with Russia, noting that both sides were moving away from maximalist positions and that a resolution may not take long to achieve.
Ukraine and Russia move towards potential peace deal amid US mediation
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%1%
In April 2026, reports indicated Ukraine and Russia were moving towards a potential peace deal with US mediation, raising hopes for future meetings. However, no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin was confirmed, keeping market prices cautious.
Yemen’s Southern Transitional Council announces dissolution after leader flees to UAE
The UAE-backed separatist Southern Transitional Council in Yemen announced its dissolution following internal divisions and regional pressure, with its leader fleeing to the UAE. This development further strained Saudi-UAE relations and reduced the chances of the UAE hosting a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin.
Zelenskyy reiterates readiness to meet Putin only on neutral territory, excluding Moscow and Kyiv
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated in an interview that he is ready to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin but only on neutral ground, explicitly ruling out Moscow and Kyiv as meeting locations. This reinforced market expectations that any meeting would not occur on Russian or Ukrainian soil, affecting the probabilities of meeting locations.
Zelenskyy proposes meeting Putin in US or Middle East, excluding Moscow and Kyiv
US dips to 2%1%
Zelenskyy reiterated his readiness to meet Putin on neutral territory such as the US or Middle East, explicitly excluding Moscow and Kyiv, emphasizing flexibility on venue to facilitate talks.
Zelenskyy states willingness to meet Putin outside Moscow or Kyiv
Zelenskyy expressed readiness to meet Putin but rejected Moscow or Kyiv as venues, suggesting neutral locations in the Middle East, Europe, or the US, reflecting ongoing venue disputes.
Zelenskyy reiterates readiness to meet Putin on neutral ground, excluding Moscow and Kyiv
Zelenskyy confirmed his willingness to meet Putin but ruled out Moscow or Kyiv as venues, suggesting the US or European countries as alternatives. This reinforced the market's view of Turkey or other neutral locations as likely meeting sites.
Zelenskyy Rejects Moscow and Kyiv Venues, Proposing Neutral Territory for Putin Meeting
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 84%6%
In an interview with Italian media, Zelenskyy reiterated his willingness to meet Putin but strictly ruled out Moscow or Kyiv, suggesting neutral locations in Europe, the US, or the Middle East.
Putin Announces Easter Ceasefire Following Weeks of Proposals from Kyiv
No meeting before 2027 dips to 83%1%
Vladimir Putin announced a brief ceasefire for the Orthodox Easter weekend, marking a rare moment of mutual agreement, though structural barriers to a direct summit remained high.
Zelenskyy ready to meet Putin in US or Middle East, excluding Moscow and Kyiv
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy expressed readiness to meet Russian President Putin on neutral ground, specifically mentioning the US and Middle East, but ruled out Moscow and Kyiv as meeting locations. This stance reinforced the market's skepticism about a near-term meeting, supporting the "No meeting before 2027" outcome.
Zelenskyy Expresses Readiness to Meet Putin in Neutral Locations Outside Russia or Belarus
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 84%6%
President Zelenskyy reiterated his willingness to meet with Vladimir Putin, suggesting potential venues in Europe, the Middle East, or the United States, while firmly ruling out Moscow or Kyiv.
Zelenskyy states readiness to meet Putin outside Moscow or Kyiv
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 84%6%
Zelenskyy expressed willingness to meet Putin but only outside Moscow or Kyiv, suggesting locations in the Middle East, Europe, or the US. This openness did not translate into concrete plans or meetings, keeping the market's confidence high that no meeting would occur before 2027.
Zelenskyy proposes energy infrastructure ceasefire, Putin agrees temporarily
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 83%5%
Zelenskyy announced Ukraine's readiness to cease attacks on energy infrastructure if Russia reciprocates, with Putin agreeing to a temporary pause. While a positive de-escalation step, it did not translate into progress on direct talks or meetings, maintaining market skepticism about a meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy visits Turkey for security talks with Erdogan, signals readiness to meet Putin
Turkey dips to 2%3%
Zelenskyy's visit to Turkey and discussions with Erdogan revived hopes for talks hosted in Turkey, but Kremlin resistance kept market confidence low for a meeting there.
Zelenskyy expresses readiness to meet Putin in Istanbul
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy publicly stated his willingness to hold peace talks with Russian President Putin in Istanbul, signaling openness to negotiations in a neutral location and influencing market interest in Turkey as a meeting venue.
Zelenskyy ready to meet Putin in Istanbul, Turkey offers support for talks
Turkey rises to 3%1%
Zelenskyy declared readiness to meet Putin in Istanbul, with Turkish President Erdogan supporting the negotiation process. This indicated Ukraine's openness to Turkey as a neutral venue, slightly increasing market interest in Turkey as a meeting location.
Zelenskyy Meets Erdogan in Istanbul and Signals Readiness to Meet Putin in Turkey
Turkey dips to 2%1%
Zelenskyy unexpectedly traveled to Istanbul to meet Turkish President Erdogan, who offered Turkey as a platform for peace talks. Zelenskyy expressed readiness to meet Putin there, though no formal summit was scheduled.
Zelenskyy Expresses Readiness to Meet Putin in Istanbul for Peace Talks
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 84%8%
Reports emerged that Zelenskyy is willing to hold direct peace talks with Vladimir Putin in Istanbul, Turkey, in any format to resolve the conflict.
US-mediated talks held in Abu Dhabi with plans for follow-up
Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia took place in Abu Dhabi, facilitated by the United States, with a second round planned but uncertain due to US-Iran tensions. This raised hopes for a meeting but also highlighted diplomatic complexities.
Kremlin official says Putin ready to meet Zelenskyy only to finalize peace deal in Moscow
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%1%
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin would meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow and solely to finalize a prepared peace agreement, not for preliminary talks. This stance indicated Russia's limited interest in dialogue beyond Ukraine's capitulation, reducing chances of a summit in neutral locations.
Kremlin says Putin could meet Zelenskyy in Belarus if conditions are met
Belarus plunges to 1%46%
Peskov confirmed that Putin was willing to meet Zelenskyy under “certain conditions”, reviving speculation about a possible Belarus venue. The “Belarus” odds briefly rose before falling again as no concrete plan materialised.
Kremlin official confirms Putin ready to meet Zelenskyy under conditions in Moscow
A Kremlin official stated Putin would meet Zelenskyy only under certain conditions in Moscow to finalize a prepared deal, indicating Russia's limited interest in broader diplomatic talks and reducing chances of a meeting elsewhere.
Zelenskyy agrees defense cooperation with UAE and Qatar during Gulf tour
Qatar / UAE plunges to 1%48%
Zelenskyy signed defense cooperation agreements with UAE and Qatar, strengthening ties with Gulf countries amid regional tensions. This diplomatic activity highlighted Ukraine's focus on international partnerships rather than direct talks with Russia.
Zelenskyy signs defense cooperation agreements with UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia
Qatar / UAE dips to 2%2%
Zelenskyy secured defense cooperation agreements with Gulf countries including UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, enhancing Ukraine's diplomatic ties in the Middle East and potentially influencing the market's view on Qatar/UAE as a meeting venue.
Zelenskyy signs historic defence deals with UAE and Qatar
Qatar / UAE rises to 5%2%
Zelenskyy signed 10‑year defence‑cooperation agreements with the United Arab Emirates and Qatar during a Gulf tour, boosting market expectations that a future meeting could be hosted in the Arab world. The “Qatar / UAE” price rose from 3 % to 5 % (price before = 3, price after = 5).
Zelenskyy signs defence deals with UAE and Qatar on Gulf tour
Qatar / UAE rises to 5%2%
Zelenskyy’s Gulf tour culminated in defence‑cooperation agreements with the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. The high‑profile visits raised expectations that the Middle East could serve as a meeting venue, lifting the “Qatar / UAE” price while the “No meeting” price fell slightly.
Zelenskyy signs 10‑year defence pact in Qatar and meets UAE president
Qatar / UAE rises to 5%3%
Zelenskyy’s state visit to Doha and a defence‑cooperation agreement with Qatar (followed by a stop in the UAE) created a concrete link between the Ukrainian president and the Gulf, which nudged the “Qatar / UAE” option upward in the market.
Zelenskyy Signs Air Defense Agreements with Qatar and UAE on Gulf Tour
Zelenskyy expanded his diplomatic outreach in the Middle East by securing defense partnerships with Qatar and the UAE, which briefly increased speculation about these Arab states hosting future peace negotiations.
Zelenskyy visits Qatar, signs defense agreement amid Gulf tour
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy visited Qatar and other Gulf countries to discuss security cooperation and countering Iranian drones, signaling diplomatic outreach but no direct talks with Russia. This bolstered interest in Gulf states as potential meeting venues but did not lead to immediate talks.
Zelenskyy visits UAE and Qatar, signs defense cooperation agreements
Qatar / UAE rises to 6%3%
Zelenskyy made unannounced visits to the UAE and Qatar, signing defense cooperation agreements to counter Iranian drone threats, signaling Ukraine's diplomatic outreach but no direct talks with Putin. This bolstered speculation about Gulf states as potential meeting venues but did not lead to a direct meeting.
Zelenskyy Arrives in Saudi Arabia to Sign Defense Deal and Seek Strategic Backing
Zelenskyy made an unannounced visit to Saudi Arabia to sign a defense cooperation agreement and meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, leveraging Ukraine's drone-countering expertise to secure regional support.
Zelenskyy visits Saudi Arabia, discusses military cooperation amid ongoing war
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%2%
Zelenskyy’s diplomatic outreach included a visit to Saudi Arabia to discuss military tensions and cooperation, signaling efforts to build alliances but not directly advancing a meeting with Putin, keeping market skepticism about a meeting high.
Ukraine and Saudi Arabia Sign Defense Cooperation Agreement in Jeddah
Saudi Arabia jumps to 16%14%
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Saudi Arabia and signed a defense cooperation pact to share drone-interception expertise, highlighting the Gulf nation's growing role as a strategic partner and potential mediator.
Zelenskyy publicly invites Putin to Kyiv for talks, rejecting Moscow and Belarus venues
No meeting before 2027 rises to 76%1%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy challenged Putin to meet in Kyiv, refusing to travel to Moscow or Belarus, framing Russia as the aggressor and emphasizing the importance of international presence in negotiations. This bold invitation raised market interest but also skepticism about an imminent meeting.
Zelenskyy signs defense cooperation agreements with Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar during Gulf tour
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%1%
Zelenskyy secured long-term defense cooperation agreements with Gulf countries, enhancing Ukraine's diplomatic ties but not directly advancing a meeting with Putin, which kept market confidence in no meeting high.
Zelenskyy signs defense cooperation agreements with Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar
Qatar / UAE rises to 1%1%
Zelenskyy secured long-term defense cooperation agreements with Gulf countries, strengthening Ukraine's international support but not advancing direct talks with Putin. This bolstered confidence in Ukraine's position but did not reduce skepticism about a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting soon.
Zelenskyy signs defence cooperation deal in Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia dips to 1%1%
Zelenskyy’s surprise visit to Saudi Arabia and the signing of a defence cooperation pact shifted market sentiment away from the Gulf as a meeting venue, pushing the Saudi Arabia outcome down from 2 % to 1 %. The focus moved toward other regions.
Zelenskyy visits Saudi Arabia, signs defense cooperation deal
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%2%
Zelenskyy made an unannounced visit to Saudi Arabia, signing a defense cooperation agreement, reflecting Ukraine's diplomatic outreach to Gulf states but no indication of a meeting with Putin.
Zelenskyy visits Saudi Arabia for important meetings amid ongoing peace efforts
No meeting before 2027 rises to 77%1%
Zelenskyy traveled to Saudi Arabia for significant meetings related to security and peace efforts. This visit did not lead to a direct meeting with Putin, and the market price for Saudi Arabia as a meeting location remained very low, reinforcing the 'No meeting before 2027' outcome.
Zelenskyy visits Saudi Arabia to strengthen regional security ties amid Iran war
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%1%
Zelenskyy made an unannounced visit to Saudi Arabia, discussing security cooperation and offering Ukraine's drone expertise to Gulf states. While this bolstered Ukraine's regional alliances, it did not directly advance prospects for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, supporting the market's dominant "No meeting before 2027" outcome.
Zelenskyy signs defense cooperation agreements with Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar during Middle East tour
Qatar / UAE rises to 3%1%
Zelenskyy secured 10-year defense cooperation agreements with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, strengthening ties in the Middle East and signaling Ukraine's diplomatic outreach amid stalled peace talks. This bolstered the prospects of meetings in Gulf countries but did not directly lead to a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting.
Zelenskyy visits Saudi Arabia, signs defense cooperation deal
Saudi Arabia plunges to 1%48%
Zelenskyy’s visit to Saudi Arabia and agreements on defense cooperation with Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar highlighted Ukraine’s diplomatic outreach but did not advance direct talks with Putin, reducing market confidence in meetings in Gulf states.
Zelenskyy visits Saudi Arabia, discusses defense cooperation
Zelenskyy visited Saudi Arabia and held productive meetings with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, signing a defense cooperation deal. This diplomatic engagement raised minor market interest in Saudi Arabia as a potential meeting venue.
Zelenskyy visits Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar, signs defense cooperation deals
Saudi Arabia plunges to 1%48%
Zelenskyy made unannounced visits to Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar, securing defense cooperation agreements. These visits highlighted Ukraine's diplomatic outreach but did not advance a direct meeting with Putin in these countries.
Zelenskyy visits Saudi Arabia for important meetings and defense deals
Qatar / UAE dips to 3%2%
Zelenskyy held significant meetings in Saudi Arabia, signing long-term defense cooperation agreements with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, signaling a shift in regional alliances but not advancing direct talks with Putin, lowering chances of meetings in Gulf states.
Zelenskyy visits Saudi Arabia to strengthen defense cooperation amid Iran war
Zelenskyy made an unannounced visit to Saudi Arabia, discussing security and defense cooperation, and offering Ukraine's drone expertise to Gulf states. This diplomatic outreach increased speculation about Middle Eastern venues for talks but did not directly indicate a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting.
US Links Security Guarantees to Ukraine Giving Up Donbas as Trilateral Talks Postponed
No meeting before 2027 rises to 77%1%
President Zelenskyy revealed that the US is linking security guarantees to Ukraine withdrawing from Donbas, while a planned fourth round of trilateral talks was postponed due to the Iran conflict.
Zelenskyy Claims US Ties Security Guarantees to Ukraine Ceding Donbas Region
President Zelenskyy stated that the US was conditioning post-war security guarantees on Ukraine ceding the Russian-occupied Donbas region, highlighting deep diplomatic friction and complicating prospects for direct leader-level peace talks.
Zelenskyy calls for summit with Trump and Putin to settle key issues
Zelenskyy stated that a summit involving himself, Putin, and Trump was the only way to resolve outstanding territorial and security guarantee issues, highlighting the importance of a direct meeting. However, the market remained skeptical about near-term prospects.
Ukraine pushes for Zelensky-Putin summit to revive peace talks
No meeting before 2027 dips to 75%1%
Ukraine's top diplomat publicly called for a face-to-face meeting between Zelensky and Putin to inject momentum into stalled peace efforts, signaling Kyiv's willingness to negotiate despite ongoing conflict. This raised hopes but did not lead to immediate progress, supporting the market's moderate confidence in a meeting.
Zelenskyy publicly invites Putin to Kyiv for peace talks, rejects Moscow meeting
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 76%7%
On March 21, 2026, Zelenskyy publicly challenged Putin to meet in Kyiv "if he dares," firmly rejecting Moscow or Belarus as venues. This bold stance, amid ongoing US-mediated talks and Kremlin insistence on Moscow, highlighted the stalemate and contributed to the market's high probability for no meeting before 2027.
Putin continues military pressure, undermining peace talks prospects
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%1%
Putin's ongoing military actions and refusal to soften stance undermined peace talks prospects, reinforcing market consensus that no meeting would occur before 2027 and causing prices for all meeting locations to remain very low.
No breakthrough in Geneva talks between Russia and Ukraine, both sides say
The Geneva talks ended with no breakthrough and persistent political and military differences, including over territory, reducing expectations for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting and reinforcing the market's preference for no meeting before 2027.
UK Prime Minister hosts Zelenskyy in London amid ongoing peace discussions
No meeting before 2027 rises to 77%2%
The UK Prime Minister hosted Zelenskyy in London, signaling continued diplomatic engagement but no direct meeting with Putin. This event maintained market expectations that no meeting would occur before 2027.
US-brokered Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Geneva end with little progress
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%2%
The US-mediated talks in Geneva concluded with Zelenskyy accusing Putin of stalling and Russia demanding territorial concessions, which Ukraine rejected. This stalemate reinforced market expectations that no meeting would occur soon.
US-mediated peace talks continue without direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%2%
Ongoing US-mediated talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi involved Ukrainian and Russian officials but no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin. The persistence of indirect negotiations and lack of breakthrough kept the market favoring no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy ready for next round of trilateral peace talks, awaiting US and Russia agreement
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%1%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy expressed readiness for the next round of peace talks involving the US and Russia but emphasized that the meeting's timing and location depend on Washington and Moscow, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and contributing to the high market probability of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy ready for next trilateral peace talks but meeting depends on US and Russia
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%2%
Zelenskyy stated readiness for the next trilateral peace talks but emphasized that the meeting depends on agreement between Washington and Moscow, indicating continued uncertainty about a direct meeting with Putin before 2027.
Zelenskyy Says Ukraine Ready for Peace Talks but Awaits US and Russia Agreement on Venue
President Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine is ready for the next round of trilateral peace talks, but the timing and location depend on Washington and Moscow agreeing to meet.
Zelenskyy Says Trilateral Peace Talks Depend on Washington and Moscow
US dips to 2%1%
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated he was ready for the next round of trilateral peace talks involving the U.S. and Russia, but noted that the timing and location depended on agreements between Washington and Moscow.
Zelenskyy states talks have narrowed disputes but rejects meetings in Russia or Belarus
No meeting before 2027 rises to 77%1%
In March 2026, Zelenskyy emphasized that key issues remain over territory and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, rejecting proposals to meet in Russia or Belarus. This stance further diminished chances of a meeting in those locations and supported the market's strong position on no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy accuses Putin of stalling as US-brokered peace talks in Geneva falter
U.S.-brokered peace talks ended with little progress, as Zelenskyy accused Putin of delaying tactics and reiterated Ukraine's non-negotiable sovereignty. This reinforced market skepticism about imminent direct talks, supporting the high price for no meeting before 2027.
US-brokered Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Geneva end with little progress
Peace talks mediated by the US concluded with Zelenskyy accusing Putin of stalling and Russia demanding territorial concessions, which Ukraine rejected. This stalemate reinforced market expectations that no meeting would occur soon.
Zelenskyy to meet Macron in Paris to discuss peace talks and potential venues
Zelenskyy met with French President Macron to discuss diplomatic efforts to halt the war, with the US proposing trilateral peace talks potentially held in Switzerland or Turkey. This indicated ongoing efforts but no confirmed meeting with Putin, influencing market uncertainty.
Zelenskyy urges Swiss‑hosted direct talks with Putin at Geneva
Switzerland rises to 2%1%
Zelenskyy reiterated during Geneva talks that a direct meeting was essential and that Switzerland could serve as a neutral venue. The mention of Switzerland caused its market price to dip to the low‑single‑digit range.
Zelenskyy announces Ukraine-US-Russia talks may resume in Switzerland or Turkey
Zelenskyy confirmed upcoming trilateral peace talks to be held in Switzerland or Turkey, highlighting these neutral venues as potential sites for future negotiations and possible leader meetings, though no meeting had yet occurred.
Zelenskyy says US proposed next Ukraine-Russia talks, possible locations Switzerland or Turkey
Zelenskyy announced that the US proposed a new round of talks with Russia, potentially to be held in Switzerland or Turkey, but noted uncertainty due to Middle East tensions. This kept market interest low for these locations and high for no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy says US proposed Ukraine-Russia talks next week, possible meeting in Switzerland or Turkey
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%2%
Zelenskyy indicated that the US proposed talks could happen soon, possibly in Switzerland or Turkey, reflecting ongoing diplomatic efforts but no firm agreement on a direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin.
Turkey offers to host next round of Ukraine-Russia-US peace talks
Turkey rises to 4%1%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy confirmed that Turkey was ready to host the next round of trilateral peace talks involving Kyiv, Moscow, and Washington, signaling Turkey's role as a potential neutral venue for negotiations.
Zelenskyy says next Ukraine‑US‑Russia talks may resume in Switzerland or Turkey
Switzerland plunges to 1%50%
Zelenskyy announced that the next round of talks could be held in either Switzerland or Turkey, citing both as possible neutral venues. The market reaction was a sharp fall in odds for those two locations.
Zelenskyy confirms trilateral talks planned in Abu Dhabi amid Middle East escalation
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%1%
Despite regional security concerns, Zelenskyy confirmed trilateral talks with the US and Russia planned in Abu Dhabi, but noted uncertainty about the venue. This maintained market skepticism about a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting before 2027.
Ukraine discusses postponing trilateral talks and changing location due to Middle East conflict
No meeting before 2027 rises to 77%2%
Zelenskyy announced talks with the US about postponing the next trilateral meeting and changing its location because of the Iran conflict, adding uncertainty to meeting timing and venue, which likely supported the market's "No meeting before 2027" outcome.
Zelenskiy holds talks with UAE, Qatar leaders
Qatar / UAE plunges to 3%46%
Zelenskyy held a series of defence‑cooperation talks in the Gulf, meeting leaders of the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. The visits were framed around anti‑drone cooperation, moving market odds away from Qatar/UAE and Saudi Arabia (each falling to ~3 %).
Ukraine says Russia has not agreed to Zelenskyy-Putin summit, peace talks depend on Middle East
Ukraine's intelligence stated Russia had not agreed to a summit between Zelenskyy and Putin, with ongoing geopolitical tensions including US-Iran conflict affecting prospects. This reinforced market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Saudi Arabia bombs Yemen port city over UAE weapons shipment to separatists
Saudi Arabia plunges to 1%48%
Saudi Arabia bombed Yemen’s Mukalla port city after a weapons shipment from the UAE to separatist forces, escalating regional tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This conflict distracted regional powers and complicated diplomatic efforts, indirectly reducing the likelihood of a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting in Saudi Arabia or UAE.
Ukraine says Russia peace talks depend on Middle East situation; no summit agreed
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%2%
Ukraine's intelligence chief stated that Russia had not agreed to a summit between Zelenskyy and Putin, which had been proposed by US envoy Steve Witkoff. The ongoing Middle East tensions and lack of Russian agreement contributed to the market's growing confidence in no meeting before 2027.
Russia Refuses Proposed Zelenskyy-Putin Summit
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%4%
Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov revealed that Russia had not agreed to a bilateral summit between the two leaders, driving 'No meeting before 2027' odds higher.
Zelenskyy says Russia has not agreed to summit with Putin
Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov stated that Russia had not agreed to a summit between Zelenskyy and Putin, which had been proposed earlier. This official confirmation of no agreement further solidified market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy says Russia-Ukraine peace talks depend on Middle East situation
Zelenskyy indicated that the possibility of peace talks and a summit with Putin depended on the evolving situation in the Middle East, adding uncertainty to the timing and location of any meeting.
Zelenskyy links peace talks to Middle East situation, notes no Putin agreement yet
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%4%
Zelenskyy stated that peace talks with Russia depend on the situation in the Middle East and that Russia had not yet agreed to a summit with Putin. This uncertainty contributed to the market's increased confidence in no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy states Russia peace talks depend on Middle East situation, no Putin summit yet
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 76%7%
Zelenskyy indicated that ongoing peace talks with Russia depend on external factors like the Middle East conflict, and that Russia had not agreed to a summit with Putin, signaling continued delays in a direct meeting.
Russia threatens to halt peace talks unless Ukraine cedes territory
Russia warned it would walk away from peace talks if Ukraine did not concede eastern Donbas, signaling a hardening stance that reduced market expectations for a meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy states Russia has not agreed to summit with Putin amid Middle East tensions
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 76%7%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy indicated that Russia had not agreed to a summit with Putin and himself, citing complications including the situation between the US and Iran. This further diminished prospects for a direct meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy says Russia peace talks depend on Middle East situation, no Putin summit agreed
No meeting before 2027 dips to 75%3%
In March 2026, Zelenskyy stated that peace talks with Russia depend on Middle East developments and that Russia had not agreed to a summit with Putin, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy links peace talks progress to Middle East situation, notes no Putin summit
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%2%
Zelenskyy stated that peace talks depend on the Middle East situation and confirmed Russia had not agreed to a summit with Putin, reinforcing market expectations that no meeting would occur before 2027.
Budanov States Russia Has Not Agreed to Zelenskyy-Putin Summit
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%3%
Ukraine's intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov confirmed that Russia has refused to agree to a direct summit between Zelenskyy and Putin, which had been floated by US envoys.
Zelenskyy expects next Russia meeting in Abu Dhabi in early March
No meeting before 2027 rises to 80%4%
Zelenskyy indicated a potential trilateral meeting involving Russia, Ukraine, and the US in Abu Dhabi, signaling diplomatic progress but no confirmed direct meeting with Putin. This briefly raised hopes but did not significantly shift market prices for a meeting venue.
Zelenskyy says next peace talks expected in Abu Dhabi in March
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 80%6%
Zelenskyy announced that the next round of trilateral talks would be held in Abu Dhabi (UAE) in early March, using a format that could bring the two leaders together at a leadership‑level meeting. The focus on Abu Dhabi pushed the market away from Qatar/UAE and maintained the “No meeting” lead.
Zelenskyy expects next peace talks in Abu Dhabi, hints at possible Putin meeting
Qatar / UAE rises to 6%2%
Zelenskyy announced that the next round of peace talks would likely be held in Abu Dhabi, expressing hope for a trilateral meeting with Putin. This raised some market interest in a meeting in the Middle East but did not lead to a direct encounter.
Zelenskyy says next peace talks expected in Abu Dhabi
Qatar / UAE rises to 5%2%
Zelenskyy announced that the next round of peace talks would likely be in Abu Dhabi (UAE) in early March, following Geneva talks. The news briefly raised the “Qatar / UAE” odds, which then fell as the meeting did not materialise.
Zelenskyy supports US action against Iran's regime amid drone supply to Russia
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%2%
Zelenskyy's backing of US action against Iran, a key Russian ally supplying drones, heightened tensions and reduced prospects for a diplomatic meeting, impacting the market's view on meeting likelihood and venue.
Zelenskyy says next round of peace talks with Russia expected in March
No meeting before 2027 surges to 78%19%
Zelenskyy said a new round of talks would be held in March, but without naming a location, reinforcing the market’s view that a direct Zelenskyy‑Putin encounter was unlikely before 2027, pushing the ‘No meeting before 2027’ probability higher.
Zelenskyy expects next peace talks with Russia in Abu Dhabi in March
Zelenskyy announced that the next round of peace talks with Russia would likely be held in Abu Dhabi, signaling continued US mediation but no confirmed direct meeting with Putin. This kept the market skeptical about meetings in other locations, reinforcing the 'No meeting before 2027' outcome.
Zelenskyy announces next round of peace talks expected in Abu Dhabi in March
Qatar / UAE rises to 3%1%
Zelenskyy stated that a new round of peace talks with Russia would likely take place in Abu Dhabi in early March, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts but no confirmed direct meeting with Putin yet.
Zelenskyy expects new peace talks in Abu Dhabi in March
Zelenskyy announced a new round of peace talks expected in Abu Dhabi, a neutral location, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts but no direct meeting with Putin yet. This maintained low market probabilities for meetings in Russia or other venues, supporting no meeting outcome.
Zelenskyy expects new peace talks with Russia in Abu Dhabi in March
Qatar / UAE plunges to 1%48%
Zelenskyy announced a new round of peace talks expected in Abu Dhabi in early March, indicating ongoing indirect negotiations with US mediation. This raised hopes for a meeting in Qatar/UAE but did not confirm direct talks between the leaders, causing only minor market shifts.
Zelenskyy expects next round of peace talks in Abu Dhabi in early March
Zelenskyy announced readiness for a trilateral format peace talk likely in Abu Dhabi in early March, emphasizing the need to finalize security guarantees and prepare for a leadership-level meeting, but no confirmation of a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting yet.
Zelenskyy expects new round of peace talks in Abu Dhabi in early March
Zelenskyy announced plans for a new round of peace talks with Russia in Abu Dhabi, mediated by the US, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts but no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting yet.
Zelenskyy expects peace talks in Abu Dhabi after US-Russia-Ukraine Geneva meetings
Qatar / UAE rises to 3%1%
Following trilateral talks in Geneva, Zelenskyy announced a likely meeting in Abu Dhabi in early March, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts. This raised market hopes for a meeting in the Middle East but did not materialize into a direct encounter.
Zelenskyy expects next Russia‑Ukraine talks to take place in Abu Dhabi
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%3%
Zelenskyy said an upcoming trilateral meeting in Abu Dhabi could lead to a direct leaders‑level talks, suggesting the meeting could be moved to the “leadership level”. The market responded with a brief rise in the “No meeting before 2027” price as the prospect of a direct meeting appeared to improve.
Zelenskyy expects new round of peace talks in Abu Dhabi, urges meeting with Putin
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%1%
Zelenskyy announced readiness for trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and called for a meeting with Putin, signaling diplomatic momentum but no confirmed direct meeting, which kept market prices for meeting locations low and 'No meeting before 2027' high.
Zelenskyy urges meeting with Putin, counts on March trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi
After trilateral talks in Geneva, Zelenskyy expressed readiness for a leaders' meeting with Putin and expected next talks in Abu Dhabi in early March. This reinforced market expectations for a neutral venue meeting but also uncertainty due to ongoing conflict.
Zelenskyy counts on next trilateral talks with US and Russia in March, urges meeting with Putin
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%1%
Following a call with Trump, Zelenskyy expressed hope for a trilateral meeting in early March and reiterated the need for a direct meeting with Putin, though the Kremlin remained noncommittal, sustaining market uncertainty about a meeting location.
Zelenskyy expects next US-brokered peace talks with Russia in Abu Dhabi, urges Putin meeting
No meeting before 2027 rises to 77%3%
In late February 2026, Zelenskyy announced readiness for another round of US-brokered peace talks in Abu Dhabi and emphasized the need for a direct meeting with Putin. However, Russia remained skeptical, and no direct summit was scheduled, sustaining market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy urges meeting with Putin during US-Russia-Ukraine talks in Geneva
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%2%
Zelenskyy called for a direct meeting with Putin as part of a sequence of negotiation steps supported by US President Trump, emphasizing the importance of a leaders' summit on neutral ground. This raised market hopes for a meeting but Kremlin remained noncommittal.
Zelenskyy says next trilateral talks with US and Russia likely in Abu Dhabi in early March
Zelenskyy announced readiness for next trilateral peace talks with US and Russia, likely in Abu Dhabi, emphasizing the need for a leadership-level meeting. However, no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting was confirmed, sustaining market skepticism about imminent talks.
US-Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva focus on territory and prisoner exchanges
A new round of talks in Geneva involving US, Ukraine, and Russia addressed contentious issues like Donbas territory and prisoner exchanges, but tensions remained high and progress was limited, sustaining market doubts about a direct meeting soon.
US invites Ukraine and Russia for talks in Miami with June deadline
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 84%6%
US invited Ukraine and Russia for peace talks in the US, likely Miami, aiming for an agreement by June 2026. Zelenskyy confirmed Ukraine's participation, raising market hopes for a meeting, though no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting was confirmed.
US pushes for trilateral peace talks in Geneva
Trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US took place in Geneva addressing key issues like Donbas and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Despite diplomatic engagement, no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin occurred, maintaining market skepticism.
Trump tells Zelenskyy he wants war to end within a month, discusses trilateral meeting
Trump told Zelenskyy in a phone call that he wanted the war to end within a month and discussed the possibility of a trilateral meeting between Trump, Zelenskyy, and Putin, raising hopes for a meeting and influencing market expectations.
Trump discusses war end and trilateral meeting possibility with Zelenskyy
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%2%
Trump told Zelenskyy he wanted the war to end within a month and discussed a possible trilateral meeting between Trump, Zelenskyy, and Putin, raising market hopes for a meeting but without concrete plans for a direct Zelenskyy-Putin encounter.
Trump calls Zelenskyy, discusses ending war and trilateral meeting possibility
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%3%
Trump told Zelenskyy he wanted the war to end within a month and discussed a possible trilateral meeting with Putin, but no direct meeting occurred, and skepticism remained high.
Zelenskyy and Trump discuss next steps for peace talks in phone call
On February 25, 2026, Trump told Zelenskyy he wanted the war to end within a month and discussed a possible trilateral meeting with Putin. This raised hopes for a meeting but no concrete plans emerged, maintaining market uncertainty.
US-mediated talks in Geneva discuss peace, possibility of trilateral meeting
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%1%
US, Ukraine, and Russia held talks in Geneva focusing on territorial issues and peace proposals, with US President Trump discussing a potential trilateral meeting with Zelenskyy and Putin, but no direct meeting occurred, maintaining market skepticism.
Lukashenka and Putin schedule Union State meeting for Feb 25 in Moscow
Belarus dips to 1%1%
An announcement that Lukashenka and Putin would meet in Moscow on Feb 25 under the Union State framework further signaled that any Zelensky‑Putin encounter would be unlikely, reinforcing the “No meeting” view and keeping all venue probabilities near the 1 % floor.
Trump signals possible US‑hosted trilateral talks with Zelenskyy and Putin
US drops to 3%6%
Trump publicly said a trilateral meeting in the United States was being discussed, briefly lifting the “US” odds before they fell again as no concrete invitation materialised.
Trump discusses possible trilateral meeting with Zelenskyy and Putin
No meeting before 2027 rises to 80%2%
Ahead of bilateral meetings in Geneva, Trump told Zelenskyy he wanted the war to end within a month and discussed the possibility of a trilateral meeting with Putin, raising hopes for direct talks but no firm plans emerged.
US-mediated Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva focus on Donbas and nuclear plant
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%1%
US-mediated talks in Geneva addressed key sticking points including Donbas and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, with expectations of further meetings. These ongoing indirect talks maintained market hopes but no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting was confirmed.
Trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva with peace deal discussions
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%3%
US, Ukraine, and Russia held trilateral talks in Geneva focusing on territorial issues and peace proposals, with Trump discussing a possible trilateral meeting with Putin and Zelenskyy, but no direct meeting occurred.
US pushes Ukraine and Russia to end war by summer with Geneva talks planned
No meeting before 2027 rises to 71%3%
In February 2026, the US pushed for peace talks in Geneva involving Ukraine and Russia, with Zelenskyy and Trump discussing next steps. Despite these efforts, Russian officials remained skeptical, and no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting was arranged, sustaining market doubts about a meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy and Trump discuss peace talks and possible trilateral meeting
Zelenskyy and Trump held a call discussing next steps for peace talks and the possibility of a trilateral meeting including Putin, but no meeting was scheduled, maintaining uncertainty and supporting the market's trend toward no meeting.
US President Trump discusses peace talks with Zelenskyy, proposes trilateral meeting
US jumps to 10%5%
Trump told Zelenskyy he wanted the war to end within a month and discussed a possible trilateral meeting with Putin, raising market expectations for a meeting but no direct meeting occurred.
Trump calls Zelenskyy, discusses trilateral meeting possibility
US rises to 4%1%
On the eve of US-Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva, Trump told Zelenskyy he wanted the war to end within a month and discussed a possible trilateral meeting with Putin. This raised market hopes for a meeting in a US or neutral venue but no direct meeting occurred.
Trump proposes trilateral meeting with Putin and Zelenskyy during Geneva talks
No meeting before 2027 dips to 77%1%
In late February 2026, during US-mediated Geneva talks, Trump expressed willingness to facilitate a trilateral meeting between himself, Zelenskyy, and Putin, raising market hopes for a meeting but with no confirmed location.
Trump discusses trilateral meeting possibility with Zelenskyy
On the eve of US-Ukraine-Russia meetings in Geneva, Trump told Zelenskyy he wanted the war to end within a month and discussed a possible trilateral meeting with Putin, raising market hopes for a meeting but no concrete plans emerged.
US-mediated trilateral talks in Geneva with Zelenskyy, Putin, and Trump discussed
On February 25, 2026, Trump told Zelenskyy he wanted the war to end within a month and discussed a possible trilateral meeting with Putin. However, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov rejected progress claims and dismissed the US-Ukraine peace plan, indicating stalled negotiations and no direct meeting.
US envoy to meet Putin in Moscow as Zelenskyy tours Europe for peace talks
No meeting before 2027 dips to 78%3%
On February 24, 2026, US special envoy Steve Witkoff met Putin in Moscow with a preliminary peace plan while Zelenskyy toured Europe for support. The parallel talks underscored ongoing diplomatic efforts but no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting was arranged, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
US Special Envoy expresses high hopes for Zelenskyy-Putin meeting
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%3%
US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff expressed strong belief in a potential Zelenskyy-Putin meeting to resolve territorial issues, boosting market expectations temporarily for a meeting despite unresolved conditions.
US envoy expresses hope for Zelenskyy-Putin meeting soon
Turkey rises to 6%3%
US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff expressed strong belief in a potential Zelenskyy-Putin meeting within weeks, aiming to resolve territorial issues. This raised market optimism briefly but did not translate into an actual meeting, limiting price gains for meeting locations.
US, Ukraine, Russia hold trilateral talks in Geneva with new Ukrainian team
No meeting before 2027 rises to 72%4%
Trilateral talks in Geneva involved reshuffled Ukrainian negotiators and US and Russian officials, aiming to prepare for leadership-level meetings. Despite progress, no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting was arranged, keeping market skepticism high about a near-term meeting.
US, Ukraine, and Russia hold trilateral talks in Geneva with new negotiating teams
No meeting before 2027 surges to 78%15%
The trilateral talks in Geneva involved reshuffled Ukrainian and Russian delegations and US mediation, but no breakthrough on meeting arrangements. This maintained market uncertainty and supported the trend toward 'No meeting before 2027'.
Framework documents for peace process being finalized, trilateral talks possible
Negotiations advanced with framework documents nearing completion, raising hopes for a trilateral meeting involving Putin, Zelenskyy, and Trump, which briefly increased market optimism for a meeting before 2027.
US envoy expresses hope for Zelenskyy-Putin summit within weeks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 80%2%
US special envoy Steve Witkoff expressed optimism that proposals on the table could lead to a summit between Zelenskyy and Putin within three weeks, reflecting active US mediation efforts and raising market expectations for a meeting soon.
US envoy says Zelenskyy-Putin meeting possible within weeks, Trump may join
No meeting before 2027 rises to 63%2%
US special envoy Steve Witkoff indicated that a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin could occur within three weeks, potentially including former President Donald Trump. This raised market hopes briefly, but the talks remained uncertain due to Russia's stance and lack of concrete agreements.
US envoy Witkoff suggests Zelenskyy-Putin meeting possible within weeks
Turkey rises to 6%4%
US special envoy Steve Witkoff indicated that a direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin could happen soon, possibly including Trump. This raised market hopes for a summit, slightly increasing probabilities for Turkey and Qatar/UAE as neutral venues.
Zelenskyy calls Zelenskyy-Putin meeting 'decisive' for ceasefire
No meeting before 2027 rises to 75%3%
Zelenskyy stated that an in-person meeting with Putin could be decisive for a workable ceasefire, signaling Ukraine's readiness and increasing market optimism for a meeting despite ongoing venue disputes.
Zelenskyy says meeting with Putin could be decisive for ceasefire
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%2%
On February 20, 2026, Zelenskyy stated that a direct meeting with Putin could be decisive for a ceasefire, expressing readiness for such talks but maintaining refusal to meet in Moscow or Belarus. This statement kept hopes alive but did not resolve venue disputes, sustaining market uncertainty.
Zelenskyy publicly invites Putin to Kyiv for peace talks, refusing Moscow or Belarus
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 71%5%
Zelenskyy issued a bold public invitation to Putin to meet in Kyiv, challenging him to come "if he dares," while firmly excluding Moscow and Belarus as meeting locations. This move was seen as a strategic assertion of Ukrainian sovereignty but also highlighted the impasse over venue, dampening market confidence in a near-term meeting.
Saudi Arabia hosts 40‑nation "Peace Formula" summit, Russia absent
Saudi Arabia plunges to 2%47%
Saudi Arabia convened a 40‑nation summit on a "Peace Formula" but excluded Russia, highlighting the difficulty of securing a Russian‑Ukrainian face‑to‑face. The lack of Russian participation caused the market to drop the Saudi Arabia outcome dramatically.
US-brokered Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Geneva end with little progress
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%2%
The US-mediated talks in Geneva between Ukraine and Russia concluded with minimal progress, as Zelenskyy accused Putin of stalling and reiterated Ukraine's non-negotiable sovereignty. This reinforced market doubts about imminent direct meetings, lowering probabilities for specific locations.
US-led Geneva talks continue with Ukraine and Russia
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%1%
Geneva talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and US envoys aimed to resolve key issues but failed to produce a breakthrough, maintaining market skepticism about a near-term meeting.
US-led mediation efforts continue with no breakthrough in Russia-Ukraine talks
No meeting before 2027 dips to 78%3%
Despite ongoing US and European mediation efforts including meetings in Washington and Abu Dhabi, no breakthrough occurred and Russia remained distant from peace terms, sustaining market belief that no meeting would happen before 2027.
Zelenskyy expects next peace talks in Abu Dhabi in March
No meeting before 2027 dips to 75%3%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced that the next round of peace talks with Russia would likely take place in Abu Dhabi in early March, indicating a preference for a neutral location. This raised the possibility of a meeting in the Middle East but no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin was confirmed, keeping the market's confidence in a meeting low.
US, Russia, Ukraine continue peace talks without direct Putin-Zelenskyy meeting
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%2%
As of February 2026, peace talks mediated by the US continued but no direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy occurred, maintaining market skepticism about a near-term meeting and supporting the 'No meeting before 2027' outcome.
Ukraine-Russia peace talks end abruptly with mixed signals in Geneva
The peace talks in Geneva concluded without resolution on key issues like occupied territories, reinforcing market expectations that no meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin would occur soon.
US-brokered Geneva talks among Ukraine, Russia, and US continue amid stalled progress
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%1%
Trilateral peace talks in Geneva involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US focused on territorial issues but faced setbacks as Russia rejected key proposals, dampening prospects for a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting soon.
Trilateral peace talks held amid Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure
No meeting before 2027 rises to 76%1%
Trilateral talks involving the US, Russia, and Ukraine occurred but were overshadowed by Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid, casting doubt on sincerity for peace and reducing chances of a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting soon.
Peace talks in Geneva end without breakthrough, Zelenskyy accuses Russia of stalling
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%2%
The latest round of US-mediated peace talks in Geneva concluded without agreement on key issues. Zelenskyy accused Russia of dragging out negotiations, and no direct leaders' summit was scheduled, increasing market confidence in no meeting before 2027.
Difficult US-Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Geneva end without breakthrough
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 72%5%
Trilateral talks in Geneva between the US, Ukraine, and Russia concluded without significant progress, with Russia maintaining maximalist demands and Ukraine accusing Russia of prolonging negotiations. This reinforced doubts about imminent direct talks between Zelenskyy and Putin.
Geneva talks continue amid skepticism over direct Putin-Zelenskyy meeting
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%2%
US, Ukrainian, and Russian officials met in Geneva for peace talks, with Zelenskyy expressing hope for a leaders-level meeting but Putin remaining distant, sustaining market confidence in no meeting before 2027 and low prices for other venues like Switzerland and Turkey.
US-led peace talks continue amid skepticism over Putin’s commitment
US and European officials continued to push for peace talks involving Ukraine and Russia, but Putin’s position remained distant from draft agreements, and no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin was scheduled or confirmed.
Geneva peace talks between US, Ukraine, and Russia begin amid tensions
In February 2026, Geneva hosted peace talks involving the US, Ukraine, and Russia, focusing on territorial issues. Despite some progress claims, talks were tense and did not lead to a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, tempering market optimism.
Zelenskyy urges Putin for direct talks during Geneva trilateral talks
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 72%5%
Zelenskyy publicly reiterated that a face-to-face meeting with Putin is the best way to resolve territorial issues, instructing his delegation to propose a summit during trilateral talks in Geneva. This raised market hopes for a meeting but venue disagreements persisted.
Ukraine Suggests Zelenskyy-Putin Summit at Geneva Trilateral Talks
Switzerland rises to 3%2%
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy instructed his delegation to propose a face-to-face summit with Vladimir Putin during trilateral talks in Geneva, briefly keeping diplomatic hopes alive.
US-brokered Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Geneva end with little progress
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 66%6%
The two-day US-mediated talks in Geneva concluded with Zelenskyy accusing Putin of stalling and Russia demanding territorial concessions Ukraine rejects. The lack of progress increased market skepticism about imminent meetings, pushing the "No meeting before 2027" price higher.
Trilateral peace talks in Geneva focus on ceasefire monitoring and territory
No meeting before 2027 rises to 71%3%
On February 17-18, 2026, trilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the US took place in Geneva, with discussions on ceasefire monitoring and territorial issues. The talks were described as difficult with limited progress, and Zelenskyy instructed his team to prepare for a possible face-to-face meeting with Putin. However, no direct meeting occurred.
Zelenskyy reiterates call for face-to-face talks with Putin during Geneva trilateral talks
During US-mediated Geneva talks, Zelenskyy emphasized that direct talks with Putin were essential for progress, reinforcing Ukraine's position and keeping the possibility of a meeting alive but without agreement on location.
Zelenskyy reiterates call for direct talks with Putin in Geneva trilateral talks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 80%2%
Zelenskyy stated that direct talks with Putin are the best way to settle territorial matters and instructed the Ukrainian delegation to propose a summit during ongoing trilateral talks in Geneva, signaling continued efforts to arrange a meeting.
US hosts Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Miami with Zelenskyy and Russian delegation
US rises to 25%3%
In February 2026, the US invited Ukraine and Russia for talks likely in Miami, focusing on territorial issues. This raised hopes for a meeting possibly in the US, temporarily increasing market interest in that outcome.
US-Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva focus on territory and humanitarian issues
No meeting before 2027 rises to 80%2%
Bilateral talks held in Geneva involved Ukraine, Russia, and the US focusing on territorial disputes and humanitarian concerns, including prisoner exchanges. Despite some progress on humanitarian issues, the talks ended abruptly, indicating stalled negotiations and no immediate prospect of a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting.
Ukraine and Russia hold talks in Geneva on Donbas and nuclear plant issues
No meeting before 2027 rises to 80%4%
Bilateral talks in Geneva addressed key sticking points including Donbas and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, signaling ongoing indirect negotiations but no direct meeting between leaders, maintaining uncertainty about a face-to-face encounter.
Trilateral peace talks held in Geneva with no breakthrough
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 79%9%
Trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US took place in Geneva but ended without agreement, with Russia rejecting key proposals. This reinforced doubts about imminent meetings, increasing the market's probability for no meeting before 2027.
US-hosted trilateral talks in Geneva focus on territorial issues
Switzerland plunges to 1%50%
The United States hosted trilateral meetings in Geneva with Ukraine and Russia to discuss practical issues and possible solutions, including territory. While progress was limited and talks were tense, this was a significant diplomatic effort involving all parties, raising hopes for a future meeting.
Trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia talks scheduled in Abu Dhabi
Qatar / UAE drops to 1%5%
Peace talks involving US, Ukraine, and Russia were set for early February in Abu Dhabi, indicating ongoing diplomatic efforts but no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, maintaining market uncertainty.
US hosts Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva focusing on territory and ceasefire
US plunges to 6%16%
In February 2026, the US hosted meetings with Ukraine and Russia in Geneva to discuss territorial issues and peace proposals, including a potential ceasefire. Despite these talks, skepticism from Russia and lack of progress kept market expectations low for a meeting in the US or neutral venues.
Ukraine, US, and Russia hold trilateral talks in Geneva, Zelenskyy pushes for direct summit
Trilateral talks took place in Geneva with Ukraine, US, and Russia. Zelenskyy reiterated that a direct meeting with Putin was the best way to resolve territorial issues and instructed his delegation to propose such a summit. This kept hopes alive for a meeting but no confirmation followed.
US-hosted Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva focus on territory and ceasefire
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 75%5%
Diplomatic talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US took place in Geneva, focusing on territorial issues but failing to produce a direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, maintaining market skepticism about a near-term meeting.
US-mediated Ukraine-Russia talks held in Abu Dhabi amid ongoing tensions
No meeting before 2027 dips to 78%1%
Ukraine and Russia held US-mediated discussions in Abu Dhabi, with a second round planned. The talks aimed to advance peace but faced challenges, maintaining uncertainty about a direct leaders' meeting.
New round of US-brokered peace talks in Switzerland with low expectations
Switzerland dips to 1%2%
In mid-February 2026, a new round of peace talks was held in Switzerland involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US. Despite the talks, hopes for a breakthrough were low due to unresolved major hurdles, dampening market optimism for a meeting in Switzerland.
US-led trilateral peace talks held in Geneva with tense but meaningful progress
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%1%
The United States, Ukraine, and Russia held trilateral talks in Geneva focusing on territory and humanitarian issues. Zelenskyy described the talks as difficult, and Russia rejected some US-backed peace plans, indicating stalled progress and no immediate meeting between leaders.
US-led Geneva talks on Ukraine peace focus on territory and security
No meeting before 2027 rises to 77%2%
Trilateral talks involving the US, Ukraine, and Russia took place in Geneva focusing on territorial issues and security guarantees, but Russian officials expressed skepticism about progress, maintaining the impasse on direct talks between Zelenskyy and Putin.
US, Ukraine, Russia hold trilateral peace talks in Geneva
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%1%
Trilateral talks in Geneva showed some progress but no breakthrough, with Russia and Ukraine maintaining divergent positions, reducing the likelihood of a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting soon.
US-Ukraine-Russia trilateral talks held in Geneva with no breakthrough
No meeting before 2027 rises to 82%4%
The trilateral meetings in Geneva involving US, Ukraine, and Russia failed to achieve a peace breakthrough, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov rejecting progress claims and dismissing the US-Ukraine peace plan. This reinforced market skepticism about imminent direct talks between Zelenskyy and Putin.
US-mediated trilateral talks in Geneva show limited progress and tense negotiations
No meeting before 2027 rises to 77%4%
Meetings between US, Ukraine, and Russia in Geneva were described as tense with limited progress, and plans for trilateral talks involving Putin, Zelenskyy, and Trump remained uncertain. This contributed to the market's growing skepticism about a direct meeting before 2027.
Geneva trilateral talks with Ukraine, Russia, and US advance negotiations but no meeting set
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%2%
Negotiations in Geneva included security advisers and Putin's aide, marking a new phase in talks. Despite progress, no agreement on a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting location or date was reached, sustaining market doubts about a meeting before 2027.
Trilateral peace talks held in Geneva between US, Ukraine, and Russia
The US, Ukraine, and Russia held trilateral peace talks in Geneva focusing on territorial issues and ceasefire parameters. Despite some progress on military issues, political differences remained deep, and no breakthrough was achieved.
Trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia talks held in Geneva with no breakthrough
No meeting before 2027 dips to 77%1%
The trilateral talks in Geneva focused on ceasefire, territory, and security guarantees but ended without agreement, reflecting ongoing stalemate and reducing chances of imminent face-to-face meeting between leaders.
US hosts Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva with focus on territory
No meeting before 2027 dips to 77%1%
Geneva talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US focused on territorial issues but showed limited progress, maintaining uncertainty about a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting and sustaining market skepticism.
Geneva talks among US, Ukraine, Russia focus on territory issues
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%1%
Trilateral talks in Geneva involving US, Ukraine, and Russia focused on territorial disputes but showed no breakthrough, with Russian officials dismissing progress. This sustained market skepticism about imminent direct meetings.
US-hosted trilateral talks in Geneva focus on Ukraine conflict issues
Trilateral talks involving the US, Ukraine, and Russia took place in Geneva, addressing contentious issues like Donbas and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. While these talks involved high-level delegations, no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin occurred, maintaining market uncertainty about a direct summit.
US-Ukraine-Russia trilateral talks held in Geneva focusing on territorial issues
Switzerland plunges to 1%50%
Trilateral talks took place in Geneva involving US, Ukraine, and Russia, focusing on territorial disputes. The meeting was a key diplomatic event but did not lead to a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, maintaining uncertainty about the venue.
Third round of Ukraine-Russia talks held in Switzerland under US mediation
No meeting before 2027 dips to 78%1%
Senior Ukrainian and Russian officials met in Switzerland for a third round of talks brokered by the US, focusing on territorial and security issues. Despite the talks, no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin occurred, maintaining market skepticism about a meeting before 2027.
Russian attacks on Ukraine continue amid peace talks in UAE
No meeting before 2027 rises to 80%4%
Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine occurred simultaneously with ongoing peace talks in Abu Dhabi involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US, undermining prospects for a direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin and increasing market confidence in no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy condemns Putin at Munich Security Conference, warns against territorial concessions
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%2%
At the Munich Security Conference, Zelenskyy strongly criticized Putin and rejected territorial concessions, signaling a hard stance that likely dampened hopes for a near-term meeting, contributing to the market's high probability for no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy tours Europe, pushing for peace talks amid stalled negotiations
Zelenskyy visited European allies to sustain support for Ukraine and peace efforts, but Russia continued military pressure, reducing chances of a direct meeting soon.
US hosts Ukraine-Russia talks in Miami aiming for June peace deal
US plunges to 5%17%
The US invited Ukraine and Russia for talks in Miami focusing on territorial issues, raising hopes for a meeting but with no direct Zelenskyy-Putin encounter confirmed. This increased interest in the US as a potential meeting venue.
Zelenskyy announces upcoming US-hosted peace talks with Russia
Zelenskyy confirmed US-hosted talks with Russia focusing on territorial issues, indicating ongoing indirect negotiations but no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, sustaining market expectations of no imminent meeting.
Geneva trilateral talks slated to begin 17‑18 Feb, says Zelenskyy
Switzerland plunges to 3%48%
Zelenskyy confirmed that trilateral talks in Geneva would start on 17‑18 February, prompting a modest rise in the “Switzerland” odds as the venue appeared plausible.
Zelenskyy announces new round of peace talks in the US focusing on territory
Zelenskyy confirmed upcoming talks in the US aimed at ending the war by June 2026, increasing speculation about a possible meeting involving Putin, though no direct meeting was confirmed.
US-mediated talks in Abu Dhabi continue without breakthrough
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%2%
US-mediated discussions between Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi continued but failed to produce a breakthrough or agreement on a meeting, maintaining market skepticism about a meeting before 2027 and depressing prices for all location options.
Lukashenka and Putin discuss Union State agenda in phone call
Belarus plunges to 1%46%
Lukashenka’s phone call with Putin discussed the upcoming Union State council meeting, hinting that a Belarus‑Russia venue might host the next high‑level talks. The market responded by moving the “Belarus” probability sharply lower, from around 47 % to 1 %.
Zelenskyy says U.S. invited Ukraine and Russia to Miami talks
US dips to 2%1%
Zelenskyy announced the U.S. had invited Ukraine and Russia for talks in the United States (likely Miami), shifting some market weight toward the US option before it fell back to low levels.
Zelenskyy announces US-led talks with Russia and Ukraine aiming for June peace deal
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 81%11%
Zelenskyy stated that the US wanted to reach an agreement to end the war by June 2026 and confirmed Ukraine's participation in talks likely held in Miami. This raised hopes for progress but did not specify a direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, influencing market expectations.
Trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi postponed amid ongoing tensions
Scheduled trilateral talks involving Russia, Ukraine, and the US in Abu Dhabi were postponed, with both Putin and Zelensky rejecting offers to meet in person. Putin suggested Russia or Belarus as hosts, but Zelenskyy insisted on any country except Russia or Belarus, maintaining the deadlock and reducing chances of a meeting in those locations.
Ukraine shifts approach to peace talks amid Russian attacks
Qatar / UAE dips to 3%2%
In early February 2026, Zelenskyy indicated a shift in Ukraine's approach to peace talks in the Emirates following heavy Russian bombardment. This development did not lead to a direct meeting with Putin, contributing to low market prices for meetings in Qatar/UAE and other locations.
Trilateral peace talks continue in Abu Dhabi with US mediation
Peace talks involving Russia, Ukraine, and the US continued in Abu Dhabi, but no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin occurred. The talks were described as productive but technical, with no breakthrough on a summit.
Putin agrees to pause strikes on Kyiv until Feb 1, 2026
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%3%
Russia’s abrupt halt to Kyiv attacks until Feb 1 2026, announced by Trump, was reported as a de‑escalation step but did not include a Zelenskyy‑Putin meeting, further cementing the market’s shift toward “No meeting before 2027” (price climbed to 81 % by 2026‑04‑14).
Trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and US held in Abu Dhabi
Separate trilateral talks involving Russia, Ukraine, and the US took place in Abu Dhabi, with Kyiv's negotiator calling them productive. However, no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting was planned, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Ukraine, US and Russia set to meet in Abu Dhabi on Feb 4‑5
Qatar / UAE rises to 2%2%
A trilateral meeting of Ukraine, the United States and Russia was scheduled for Abu Dhabi (UAE) on Feb 4‑5 2026. The announcement raised the probability of a meeting taking place in the “Qatar / UAE” region, briefly lifting that outcome from 0 % to 2 % before the market again reverted as the talks were postponed.
Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy grid threaten peace talks
Russia launched attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure just before trilateral talks, casting doubt on Moscow’s sincerity and reducing market confidence in imminent meetings, especially in Russia or Belarus.
Trilateral peace talks held amid Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%1%
US-mediated trilateral talks involving Russia and Ukraine took place in the Emirates, but both Putin and Zelenskyy rejected offers to meet in person, with Putin suggesting Russia or Belarus as venues and Zelenskyy inviting talks in Ukraine. The ongoing refusal to meet face-to-face kept market confidence high in 'No meeting before 2027'.
Putin and Zelenskyy Reject Offers to Meet in Person
Belarus dips to 1%1%
Reports confirmed that both leaders rejected proposals for an in-person meeting, with Putin pushing for Russia or Belarus and Zelenskyy insisting on Ukraine.
Putin agrees to halt Kyiv strikes after Trump’s request, but both leaders still refuse in‑person talks
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 78%9%
Russia halted strikes on Kyiv after a personal request by Trump, but both leaders still declined a face‑to‑face meeting, confirming the stalemate and contributing to the market’s shift toward “No meeting”.
Putin says any Zelensky‑Putin meeting could only be in Russia or Belarus
Turkey plunges to 3%26%
Putin’s public suggestion that any meeting could only be held in Russia or Belarus, coupled with Zelensky’s invitation to Kyiv, led markets to view meetings in Qatar/UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan and Turkey as highly unlikely, pushing all those outcomes to 1 %‑2 % levels.
Trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi continue amid Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure
No meeting before 2027 dips to 77%1%
In early February 2026, trilateral talks involving Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. took place in Abu Dhabi, but Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid cast doubt on Moscow’s sincerity. Both Putin and Zelenskyy rejected in-person meetings, with Putin suggesting Russia or Belarus as hosts and Zelenskyy inviting talks in Ukraine, maintaining stalemate.
Trilateral peace talks begin in Abu Dhabi involving US, Ukraine, and Russia
Rare trilateral talks involving representatives from the US, Ukraine, and Russia took place in Abu Dhabi focusing on military cooperation, but no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin occurred, reflecting ongoing diplomatic challenges.
Russia launches energy strikes amid trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi
No meeting before 2027 rises to 80%3%
During trilateral talks involving Russia, Ukraine, and the US in Abu Dhabi, Russia launched massive attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid, undermining trust and sincerity in peace efforts. Both Putin and Zelenskyy rejected offers to meet in person, with Putin suggesting Russia or Belarus as hosts and Zelenskyy inviting Ukraine. This event decreased chances of a meeting in Turkey, Qatar/UAE, Belarus, or Russia, boosting 'No meeting before 2027' odds.
Russia halts strikes on Kyiv at Trump's request amid peace talks
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%3%
Russian President Putin agreed to halt strikes on Kyiv until February 1 at the personal request of US President Trump, reflecting US influence in peace negotiations and raising hopes for direct talks between Putin and Zelenskyy.
Ukraine's top negotiator calls trilateral talks productive but no direct meeting set
On February 4, 2026, Ukraine's top negotiator described trilateral talks involving the US, Ukraine, and Russia as productive but emphasized that talks remained at a technical level with no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin scheduled. This maintained market expectations that no direct meeting would occur before 2027.
Trilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia, and US continue in Abu Dhabi
Trilateral peace talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US took place in Abu Dhabi, reflecting ongoing diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict. Despite these talks, no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin occurred, sustaining market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Russian strikes threaten trilateral peace talks in Geneva
Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure complicated ongoing trilateral peace talks involving the US, Ukraine, and Russia in Geneva, with both Putin and Zelensky rejecting in-person meetings and suggesting different locations, increasing doubts about a direct meeting.
Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy threaten trilateral peace talks
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%2%
Renewed Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure undermined the fragile peace talks involving the US, Ukraine, and Russia, with both Zelenskyy and Putin rejecting offers to meet in person, further dimming prospects for a meeting.
New round of trilateral peace talks held in Abu Dhabi with Ukraine, Russia, and US
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%1%
A new round of trilateral talks took place in Abu Dhabi on February 4-5, continuing diplomatic efforts without a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting. This reinforced market expectations that no direct meeting would occur before 2027, keeping the highest probability on that outcome.
Putin and Zelenskyy reject personal meeting, suggest Belarus or Russia as host
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 78%7%
Foreign Policy reported that both leaders rejected a face‑to‑face meeting, with Putin preferring Russia or Belarus as a venue and Zelenskyy inviting Ukraine. The discussion of possible host countries (Belarus, Russia) further drove the market away from Belarus and China, reinforcing the “No meeting” trend.
US-mediated trilateral peace talks held in Abu Dhabi
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%2%
Peace talks involving Russia, Ukraine, and the US took place in Abu Dhabi but were postponed and continued without a breakthrough, reflecting ongoing challenges in arranging a direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin.
Putin and Zelensky reject in-person meeting offers; Putin suggests Russia or Belarus as venue
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%1%
Both leaders rejected offers to meet in person, with Putin proposing Russia or Belarus as meeting locations, which Zelenskyy declined, further diminishing prospects of a direct meeting before 2027.
Trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi continue without summit agreement
No meeting before 2027 dips to 78%3%
February 2026 trilateral talks among Russia, Ukraine, and the US in Abu Dhabi proceeded but failed to schedule a summit between Zelenskyy and Putin, maintaining market skepticism about a direct meeting before 2027.
Trilateral peace talks held in Abu Dhabi with US, Ukraine, and Russia
Rare trilateral talks involving US, Ukrainian, and Russian representatives took place in Abu Dhabi focusing on military cooperation, but no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting occurred, reflecting ongoing diplomatic complexity and limited progress toward a summit.
Abu Dhabi set as next venue for Ukraine‑Russia talks, but leaders remain divided
Qatar / UAE plunges to 3%46%
Reports that the next round of talks would be staged in Abu Dhabi (UAE) and that Putin preferred Belarus while Zelensky pressed for Ukraine shifted expectations toward a Middle‑East venue, but subsequent refusals led the market to slash the Qatar/UAE probability from ~50 % to the low single digits.
Russia proposes Moscow or Belarus for talks; Zelenskyy rejects these venues
Belarus dips to 1%1%
Russia suggested Moscow or Belarus as venues for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, but Zelenskyy rejected these options, further diminishing the likelihood of meetings in these locations and pushing market prices down for those outcomes.
Trilateral peace talks postponed amid ongoing Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy
No meeting before 2027 rises to 80%2%
Trilateral talks involving Russia, Ukraine, and the US were postponed amid Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, with both Putin and Zelenskyy rejecting in-person meetings for now, suggesting Belarus or Ukraine as possible venues respectively.
Putin signals willingness to meet Zelenskyy abroad after a lasting deal
No meeting before 2027 dips to 74%4%
During a press conference in Saint Petersburg, Putin said Russia would be ready to meet Zelenskyy in a third country once a “lasting” deal was reached. The optimistic tone pulled the “No meeting before 2027” price down briefly (from 78 % to 74 %) before it rebounded.
Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy grid threaten peace talks
Russia launched attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure just before trilateral peace talks, casting doubt on Moscow's sincerity and reducing optimism for a meeting in neutral locations like Switzerland or Qatar/UAE. This contributed to the decline in prices for those meeting locations.
Trilateral peace talks held in Abu Dhabi with US mediation
Qatar / UAE rises to 6%4%
Ukraine, Russia, and US held trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi aiming to advance peace negotiations. This increased market interest in neutral venues like Qatar/UAE and Turkey as potential meeting sites.
Trilateral peace talks scheduled in Abu Dhabi involving US, Ukraine, Russia
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%2%
In early February 2026, trilateral meetings were set for Abu Dhabi to continue peace talks, signaling ongoing indirect negotiations but no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin. This maintained market skepticism about a direct meeting soon.
Russian strikes on Ukraine energy threaten trilateral peace talks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%2%
Russia launched attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure during ongoing trilateral talks, undermining trust and reducing chances of a direct meeting. Both Putin and Zelenskyy rejected offers to meet in person, with Putin suggesting Russia or Belarus as hosts and Zelenskyy inviting Ukraine.
US-led trilateral peace talks held in Abu Dhabi with Russia and Ukraine
The US, Russia, and Ukraine held trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi aiming to advance peace negotiations. Despite a constructive atmosphere, major obstacles remained, and no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin was arranged, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Putin and Zelenskyy reject offers to meet in person; venue disputes continue
No meeting before 2027 rises to 80%4%
Both leaders rejected offers to meet in person, with Putin suggesting Russia or Belarus and Zelenskyy inviting Putin to Ukraine. Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure threatened peace talks, further reducing chances of a meeting before 2027.
Putin and Zelenskyy reject in-person meeting offers; venue proposals discussed
No meeting before 2027 dips to 77%3%
During trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, both leaders rejected offers to meet in person. Putin suggested Russia or Belarus as possible hosts, while Zelenskyy invited Putin to Ukraine. This stalemate contributed to market skepticism about a direct meeting before 2027.
Russia halts Kyiv strikes until Feb 1 ahead of trilateral talks
Belarus plunges to 1%46%
A Russian strike postponement ahead of the Geneva talks hinted at a possible Russian‑hosted venue, nudging the “Belarus” odds upward briefly.
Ukraine prepares for trilateral peace talks with US and Russia in UAE
No meeting before 2027 rises to 75%4%
Zelenskyy announced new trilateral peace talks with the US and Russia in Abu Dhabi, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts but no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, which kept market confidence in no meeting before 2027 high.
US-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi described as constructive but no breakthrough
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 76%6%
Ukraine, Russia, and the US held trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi, which Zelenskyy called 'constructive.' Despite progress on some issues, key sticking points like territorial concessions and peacekeepers remain unresolved, maintaining market skepticism about imminent meetings.
Putin says he will meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow
Russia plunges to 1%43%
During a direct‑line broadcast, Putin reiterated he would only meet Zelenskyy in Moscow, eliminating other possible venues (Turkey, Qatar/UAE, etc.). This reinforced the market’s shift toward “No meeting” and kept the Russia probability near its lows.
Kremlin insists Zelenskyy-Putin meeting only in Moscow
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%1%
In early February 2026, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reiterated that Russia would only consider Moscow as the venue for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, rejecting other locations. Zelenskyy had publicly refused to travel to Moscow or Belarus, reinforcing the deadlock and market confidence in no meeting before 2027.
Next round of trilateral talks scheduled in Abu Dhabi amid ongoing negotiations
No meeting before 2027 rises to 77%1%
The US, Ukraine, and Russia planned another round of trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi to continue peace negotiations. While progress was noted, no direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy was arranged, sustaining market confidence in 'No meeting before 2027'.
Trilateral Ukraine-Russia-US talks in Abu Dhabi end constructively but no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 75%5%
Diplomatic talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US concluded with constructive discussions on ending the war but no agreement on a direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin. The talks raised hopes for future negotiations but maintained the status quo, reinforcing market confidence in 'No meeting before 2027'.
Putin agrees to halt Kyiv strikes for a week at Trump’s request
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%1%
Putin announced a temporary halt to strikes on Kyiv until Feb 1, after a request from Trump. The pause was presented as a goodwill gesture but did not include any commitment to a face‑to‑face meeting, reinforcing market confidence in the “No meeting” outcome (price remained above 70 %).
Zelenskyy announces new trilateral peace talks with US and Russia in UAE
Qatar / UAE rises to 7%2%
Zelenskyy confirmed plans for new trilateral talks with the US and Russia in the United Arab Emirates, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts to end the war. This raised hopes for progress but did not directly involve a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, causing minor market impact on meeting location probabilities.
Zelenskyy rejects Kremlin's proposal to meet Putin in Moscow, invites him to Kyiv
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 78%8%
Zelenskyy publicly rejected the Kremlin's invitation to meet Putin in Moscow, stating it was impossible and instead invited Putin to Kyiv. This hardened stance reduced the likelihood of a meeting in Russia or Belarus, impacting market expectations.
Zelenskyy publicly rejects meeting Putin in Moscow, invites him to Kyiv instead
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%2%
Zelenskyy declared it impossible to meet Putin in Moscow and invited Putin to Kyiv, challenging Russia's insistence on Moscow as the meeting place. This public rejection contributed to market skepticism about a direct meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy invites Putin to Kyiv for talks, challenges him to meet 'if he dares'
Russia dips to 1%1%
On January 30, 2026, Zelenskyy publicly invited Putin to Kyiv for talks, rejecting Moscow as a meeting venue and challenging Putin to meet in Ukraine. This bold move highlighted the diplomatic impasse and reduced chances of a meeting in Russia, affecting market prices for meeting locations.
Zelenskyy invites Putin to Kyiv for peace talks, Kremlin confirms Putin's agreement to proposal
Qatar / UAE dips to 2%1%
Zelenskyy publicly invited Putin to Kyiv for talks, stating 'if he dares'. The Kremlin confirmed Putin had received the request and 'of course' agreed to the proposal, though no meeting date was set. This was a significant diplomatic move but did not lead to a confirmed meeting.
Putin says he will meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow
No meeting before 2027 drops to 1%8%
Putin publicly stated he would only meet Zelenskyy in Moscow, narrowing the venue options and causing the “US” and “Switzerland” odds to collapse as those locations became less likely.
Zelenskyy invites Putin to Kyiv for talks, rejects meeting in Moscow
No meeting before 2027 dips to 78%1%
Zelenskyy publicly invited Putin to Kyiv for talks but rejected the idea of meeting in Moscow, reflecting ongoing disagreements over meeting location and reducing chances of a near-term encounter.
Zelenskyy rejects Putin's suggestion to meet in Moscow, doubles down on 2027 EU accession target
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 65%14%
Zelenskyy publicly stated it was impossible to meet Putin in Moscow and reaffirmed Ukraine's EU accession goal for 2027, signaling a firm stance against Putin's proposals and reducing the likelihood of a meeting in Russia or any immediate talks. This caused a sharp drop in the Russia meeting probability and a rise in 'No meeting before 2027'.
Zelenskyy says meeting in Belarus is ‘impossible’, insists on neutral venue
Belarus plunges to 1%46%
Zelenskyy publicly refused to travel to Moscow or Belarus for a face‑to‑face meeting, insisting any summit must be on neutral ground. The rejection of Belarus as a venue sharply lowered the market’s belief that the next meeting would occur there, pushing the Belarus outcome from double‑digits to near‑zero.
Zelensky invites Putin to Kyiv; Kremlin says Putin received the request
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 81%6%
Zelensky publicly invited Putin to Kyiv; the Kremlin confirmed the request was received. The invitation, combined with Putin’s refusal to meet in Kyiv, kept expectations low for a near‑term meeting, reinforcing the “No meeting” trend.
Zelenskyy invites Putin to Kyiv; Kremlin says Putin received request
Belarus plunges to 1%46%
Zelenskyy invited Putin to Kyiv, but the Kremlin said Putin had 'of course' agreed to the proposal, temporarily raising the “Belarus” and “Russia” odds before they fell back to ~1 % as the market concluded the invitation was unlikely to be accepted.
Zelenskyy publicly invites Putin to Kyiv for talks, rejects Moscow and Belarus venues
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy invited Russian President Putin to Kyiv for peace talks, stating he would not travel to Moscow or Belarus. This reinforced Ukraine's stance on meeting location, reducing chances of meetings in Russia or Belarus and affecting market prices for those options.
Zelenskyy invites Putin to Kyiv for talks, says meeting in Moscow impossible
Ukraine plunges to 1%28%
Zelenskyy publicly invited Putin to Kyiv for talks but stated it was impossible to meet in Moscow, equating it to Putin visiting Kyiv. This reinforced Zelenskyy's stance against meeting in Russia and underscored ongoing venue disputes, reducing chances of a meeting before 2027.
Kremlin reiterates invitation for Zelenskyy to Moscow for peace talks
Russia dips to 1%1%
Russia officially invited Zelenskyy to Moscow for talks, but Zelenskyy rejected meeting in Moscow, inviting Putin to Kyiv instead. This stalemate reduced market expectations for a meeting in Russia or Belarus and increased uncertainty.
Kremlin invites Zelenskyy to Moscow for peace talks; Zelenskyy rejects meeting in Russia
Russia plunges to 1%43%
The Kremlin confirmed Putin's readiness to meet Zelenskyy in Moscow only to finalize agreements, but Zelenskyy ruled out meeting in Russia or Belarus, complicating prospects for a meeting and reducing Russia's market probability.
Russia invites Zelenskyy to Moscow for peace talks; Kremlin insists meeting only if Zelenskyy travels to Moscow
Russia dips to 2%1%
The Kremlin stated that a meeting would only occur if Zelenskyy traveled to Moscow, rejecting Zelenskyy's invitation for Putin to come to Kyiv. This hardened the stance on meeting location, reducing chances for Kyiv and increasing uncertainty.
Kremlin invites Zelenskyy to Moscow for peace talks; Zelenskyy rejects meeting in Moscow
No meeting before 2027 rises to 68%3%
The Kremlin confirmed Putin received Zelenskyy's invitation to talks, but Zelenskyy stated it was impossible to meet in Moscow and suggested Putin come to Kyiv instead. This exchange highlighted the impasse over meeting location, reducing chances of a direct meeting in Russia or Ukraine and increasing the likelihood of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy rejects Kremlin's proposal to meet Putin in Moscow, invites him to Kyiv
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 76%9%
Zelenskyy publicly refused to meet Putin in Moscow, citing ongoing hostilities, and instead invited Putin to Kyiv. This hardened stance diminished chances of a meeting in Russia or Belarus, reducing market confidence in those locations.
Kremlin reiterates invitation for Zelenskyy to Moscow for peace talks
No meeting before 2027 drops to 66%6%
Russia publicly invited Zelenskyy to Moscow for talks, but Zelenskyy rejected meeting in Moscow, inviting Putin to Kyiv instead. This stalemate on meeting location contributed to market skepticism about a direct meeting before 2027.
Kremlin states Moscow is only venue for Putin-Zelensky meeting
Russia plunges to 8%36%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declared that Moscow is the sole location under discussion for a potential Putin-Zelensky summit, emphasizing Russia's position and impacting market confidence in meetings elsewhere.
Zelenskyy invites Putin to Kyiv for talks, Kremlin confirms receipt
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%2%
Zelenskyy publicly invited Putin to Kyiv for talks, which Kremlin spokesman Peskov confirmed Putin had received and agreed to consider. Zelenskyy ruled out meeting in Moscow, signaling ongoing venue disagreements and uncertainty about a meeting.
Russia insists Zelenskyy must travel to Moscow for direct talks with Putin
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%2%
Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov stated that Zelenskyy should travel to Moscow for direct talks with Putin, which Zelenskyy rejected, inviting Putin to Kyiv instead. This hardened stance reduced market optimism for a meeting outside Russia and reinforced the "No meeting before 2027" outcome.
Zelenskyy rejects Putin's Moscow invitation, invites Putin to Kyiv instead
No meeting before 2027 rises to 76%2%
Zelenskyy publicly rejected the Kremlin's proposal to meet in Moscow, stating it was impossible for him to meet Putin there and inviting Putin to Kyiv instead. This stance maintained the impasse on meeting location, reinforcing market skepticism about a near-term meeting and boosting 'No meeting before 2027' odds.
Zelenskyy urges compromise as peace talks begin in Abu Dhabi
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 78%6%
In late January 2026, Zelenskyy emphasized the need for compromises from all sides during trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi involving the US, Ukraine, and Russia. Despite these talks, it remained unclear if Zelenskyy and Putin would meet face-to-face, sustaining market skepticism about a meeting before 2027.
US-mediated Ukraine-Russia talks in Abu Dhabi show progress but no breakthrough
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 79%12%
Negotiations mediated by the US in Abu Dhabi involved Ukraine and Russia discussing key issues including territorial matters and ceasefire parameters. Zelenskyy expressed readiness to meet Putin personally to resolve sensitive issues, but no meeting was scheduled, maintaining market skepticism about near-term talks.
Next trilateral peace talks scheduled for Abu Dhabi, postponed to following week
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 79%5%
Peace talks involving Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. were planned for Abu Dhabi but postponed, reflecting ongoing difficulties in arranging direct meetings between Zelenskyy and Putin and uncertainty about venue and timing.
Ukraine, Russia, and US conclude constructive trilateral peace talks in UAE
Trilateral peace talks mediated by the US in the UAE concluded with constructive discussions on parameters for ending the war, but no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin occurred. This maintained market uncertainty and low probabilities for a summit in Gulf states.
Russia invites Zelenskyy to Moscow for peace talks, guarantees security
No meeting before 2027 plunges to 1%43%
The Kremlin renewed its invitation for Zelenskyy to meet Putin in Moscow, promising security guarantees. Zelenskyy rejected Moscow as a venue, reducing the likelihood of a meeting in Russia and increasing the market's confidence in 'No meeting before 2027'.
Zelenskyy publicly invites Putin to Kyiv for peace talks, refuses Moscow or Belarus
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 70%6%
Zelenskyy issued a bold public invitation to Putin to meet in Kyiv 'if he dares,' while firmly rejecting meetings in Moscow or Belarus, labeling Russia as aggressor and Belarus as partner in war. This hardened positions and reduced market confidence in meetings in Russia or Belarus.
US-mediated trilateral peace talks held in Abu Dhabi with progress reported
No meeting before 2027 rises to 72%4%
Russia, Ukraine, and US delegations met in Abu Dhabi for two days of peace talks, marking the first such US-mediated meeting since the war escalated. Officials reported progress and expressed optimism about a future Putin-Zelenskyy meeting, though no direct meeting occurred yet, supporting market confidence in 'No meeting before 2027'.
First trilateral peace talks between Russia, Ukraine, and US held in Abu Dhabi
No meeting before 2027 rises to 77%1%
Russian, Ukrainian, and US delegations met in Abu Dhabi for the first trilateral talks since the war began. Discussions focused on territorial issues, with no compromise reached. Zelenskyy emphasized the need for Russia to be ready to end the war. The talks were described as constructive but inconclusive.
Orban criticizes Zelenskyy ahead of Hungarian elections, straining ties
Hungary drops to 1%7%
Orban publicly rebuked Zelenskyy, calling him desperate and refusing to support Ukraine's war efforts, worsening bilateral relations and reducing the likelihood of a meeting in Hungary, reflected in the drop of Hungary meeting odds.
US-mediated trilateral talks held in Abu Dhabi with Ukraine and Russia
Qatar / UAE plunges to 2%47%
Ukraine, Russia, and US negotiators met in Abu Dhabi for the first trilateral talks since the war began, with officials reporting progress but no breakthrough or direct Putin-Zelenskyy meeting, which maintained low market prices for UAE/Qatar and Saudi Arabia venues.
US-mediated trilateral talks held in Abu Dhabi with Russia and Ukraine
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 76%9%
Russian, Ukrainian, and US delegations met in Abu Dhabi for trilateral talks, marking progress but no breakthrough. Officials indicated Zelenskyy and Putin were close to arranging a direct meeting, but it did not materialize, keeping market confidence low for a meeting before 2027.
Trilateral peace talks held in Abu Dhabi with US, Russia, Ukraine
Qatar / UAE rises to 3%1%
The first trilateral talks involving US, Russia, and Ukraine took place in Abu Dhabi, described as 'productive' but without a breakthrough. The event highlighted the complexity of negotiations and the absence of a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting.
First trilateral peace talks held in Abu Dhabi between Ukraine, Russia, and US
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%3%
Ukraine, Russia, and US officials held their first trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, focusing on peace negotiations. Despite constructive discussions, territorial disputes remained a major obstacle, and no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin was arranged, maintaining uncertainty about a leaders' summit.
Ukraine, Russia, and US hold first trilateral peace talks in UAE
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 78%6%
Ukraine, Russia, and the US held trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi aiming to advance peace negotiations, but no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin occurred. The talks highlighted ongoing territorial disputes and stalled progress, reinforcing market expectations of no imminent face-to-face meeting.
Zelenskyy meets Trump at World Economic Forum as US envoys meet Putin in Moscow
Switzerland plunges to 1%50%
Zelenskyy met Trump in Davos to discuss peace proposals while US envoys held talks with Putin in Moscow. This dual diplomacy raised hopes for progress but no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting was arranged, impacting market prices for Switzerland and Turkey.
Zelenskyy meets Trump in Davos, discusses peace talks and meeting with Putin
Qatar / UAE rises to 5%3%
Zelenskyy met with US President Donald Trump at the World Economic Forum in Davos, expressing hope for peace talks and a future meeting with Putin. This bolstered market optimism for a meeting, slightly increasing probabilities for neutral venues and talks.
Zelenskyy and Trump meet at World Economic Forum in Davos
Switzerland rises to 2%1%
Zelenskyy met Trump in Davos to discuss the peace plan, with Trump acknowledging an 'abnormal hatred' between Zelenskyy and Putin as a barrier. The meeting underscored ongoing challenges and the need for further negotiations.
Zelenskyy and Trump meet in Davos amid intensified US-led peace efforts
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%3%
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Zelenskyy and Trump discussed peace efforts, with Trump urging Putin to end the war. Despite these efforts, no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin was arranged, reflecting ongoing diplomatic challenges.
Zelenskyy says Ukraine readying for US‑Russia peace talks in UAE on Feb 4‑5
Qatar / UAE plunges to 5%44%
Zelenskyy told Trump at the World Economic Forum in Davos that Ukraine was preparing for new trilateral talks in the United Arab Emirates on 4‑5 Feb. The announcement shifted market odds toward a meeting in the UAE and away from other venues.
US envoys meet Putin in Moscow for peace talks ahead of Abu Dhabi trilateral meeting
No meeting before 2027 rises to 82%4%
US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met with Putin in Moscow to discuss peace deal terms, signaling active US involvement and raising market interest in a potential meeting location in Russia, though no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting occurred.
Zelenskyy and Trump meet at Davos amid intensified US-led peace efforts
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%1%
Zelenskyy and Trump held talks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, emphasizing the need for Putin to face international prosecution and criticizing European allies, but no direct meeting with Putin was arranged.
Zelenskyy meets Trump in Davos, US envoys head to Moscow for talks with Putin
No meeting before 2027 drops to 75%5%
Zelenskyy met with US President Donald Trump in Davos, Switzerland, discussing security guarantees and peace efforts. US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner proceeded to Moscow to meet Putin, signaling active US mediation. This raised hopes for progress but highlighted unresolved territorial issues, impacting market expectations for a meeting location.
Ukraine, Russia, and US hold first trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi
Qatar / UAE rises to 4%3%
Ukraine's President Zelenskyy announced a trilateral meeting with Russia and the US in Abu Dhabi, marking the first such talks since the war began. This event raised hopes for progress but did not include a direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, impacting market prices by slightly increasing interest in a meeting in Qatar/UAE.
Zelenskyy and Trump meet at Davos, announce US-Russia-Ukraine talks in UAE
Qatar / UAE rises to 50%1%
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Zelenskyy met Trump and announced trilateral talks between the US, Russia, and Ukraine to be held in the UAE, raising hopes for diplomatic progress and a possible meeting venue outside Russia.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet at Davos amid ongoing peace efforts
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%4%
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Zelenskyy met with Trump, who continued to push for peace talks including trilateral meetings involving Russian representatives. Despite this, Zelenskyy highlighted the 'abnormal hatred' between him and Putin as a barrier to direct talks, reflecting persistent diplomatic challenges.
Putin warns Russia will extend gains if peace talks fail
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%1%
Russian President Putin publicly warned that Russia would seek to extend its territorial gains in Ukraine if peace talks fail, signaling hardened positions and reducing likelihood of a direct meeting with Zelenskyy, which influenced market prices downward for meeting locations and upward for no meeting.
Zelenskyy meets Trump at Davos, criticizes Europe, discusses peace talks
Switzerland jumps to 6%5%
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Zelenskyy met Trump and criticized European inaction while highlighting progress on US security guarantees. US envoys planned meetings with Putin in Moscow, and trilateral talks were scheduled in Abu Dhabi, indicating ongoing diplomatic momentum but no direct Putin-Zelenskyy meeting yet.
Trump hosts World Economic Forum meeting highlighting peace efforts
At the Davos Forum, Trump emphasized ongoing diplomatic efforts and security guarantees for Ukraine, signaling continued US involvement in peace talks. However, Russia remained distant from draft terms, maintaining a hardline stance, which dampened prospects for a near-term meeting.
Zelenskyy meets Trump at Davos, discusses stalled peace talks
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 75%5%
Zelenskyy and Trump met in Davos, Switzerland, to discuss ongoing peace negotiations. Zelenskyy announced agreement on US-backed security guarantees but noted Russia must be ready for compromises. The meeting underscored continued diplomatic efforts but no direct Putin-Zelenskyy meeting was arranged, reinforcing market doubts about a near-term summit.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet at Davos amid ongoing peace efforts
No meeting before 2027 rises to 67%4%
Trump and Zelenskyy met at the World Economic Forum in Davos, expressing optimism about peace talks. Trump invited Putin to join a peace board, and US envoys planned talks with Putin in Moscow, but no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting was arranged, reinforcing market doubts about a near-term meeting.
Trump and Zelenskyy to meet at Davos; US envoys to meet Putin in Moscow
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%4%
President Trump announced a meeting with Zelenskyy at the World Economic Forum in Davos and sent envoys to meet Putin in Moscow, signaling continued US mediation efforts. Despite these diplomatic moves, no direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy was arranged, maintaining market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Putin says Russia studying peace board proposal after Trump accepts invite
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 84%14%
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Putin said Russia was studying a U.S.‑backed peace board proposal after Trump announced he had accepted an invitation to meet. The statement reinforced expectations that any direct meeting would be deferred, lifting the “No meeting before 2027” probability (70 % → 84 % on 2026‑01‑21).
Turkey offers to host trilateral summit, but both leaders balk at venue
Turkey plunges to 3%26%
After a series of talks in the region, Turkish officials announced they would host a trilateral summit only if both sides agreed. Putin’s insistence on a Russian or Belarusian venue and Zelenskyy’s refusal to travel to Turkey caused the market to cut the Turkey probability sharply.
Trump claims Zelenskyy is holding up Ukraine peace deal
No meeting before 2027 rises to 75%3%
US President Trump publicly stated that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, not Putin, was delaying a peace deal, contrasting with European views. This statement reflected ongoing political complexities and reduced market confidence in a near-term Zelenskyy-Putin meeting.
Trump says Zelenskyy, not Putin, is holding up Ukraine peace deal
No meeting before 2027 rises to 80%1%
In a January 15, 2026 interview, Trump stated that Putin was ready to end the war but Zelenskyy was less willing to make a deal. This statement reflected ongoing difficulties in arranging a direct meeting and contributed to the market's confidence in "No meeting before 2027."
Trump claims Putin ready for peace but Zelenskyy less willing
No meeting before 2027 rises to 83%4%
Trump stated that Putin is ready to end the war while Zelenskyy is more reticent, reflecting ongoing divisions that reduce the likelihood of a direct meeting between the two leaders soon, reinforcing market confidence in 'No meeting before 2027'.
Trump hosts Board of Peace signing ceremony in Davos with Putin invited
The US hosted a Board of Peace signing ceremony in Davos, inviting Russia and other countries, including those in the Middle East, to participate in peace efforts. This diplomatic initiative raised hopes but did not lead to a direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, affecting market prices for meeting locations.
Peace talks continue in Paris with no breakthrough
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 78%6%
January 2026 talks in Paris involving US, Ukrainian, and Russian envoys failed to close the deal, with Kremlin distancing itself from draft terms. This reinforced market expectations that a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting was unlikely soon.
Putin holds top‑military briefing in Paris as Zelenskyy tours Europe
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 78%10%
Paris talks (Jan 6‑7) produced no breakthrough and Russian officials emphasized holding the strategic initiative, while Zelenskyy was travelling across Europe. The lack of a concrete Putin‑Zelenskyy encounter caused a further swing toward the “No meeting” outcome and depressed all venue options.
Kremlin aide praises Trump's peace efforts after Zelenskyy meeting and Putin call
No meeting before 2027 rises to 82%2%
Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev praised Trump's peace efforts following the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting and a phone call between Trump and Putin, indicating ongoing diplomatic engagement but no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting. This reinforced market confidence in no meeting before 2027.
Ukraine allies agree on multilayered security guarantees in peace plan talks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 75%1%
European allies, including France and the UK, agreed on security guarantees for Ukraine as part of peace plan discussions, but Russia maintained maximalist demands, limiting prospects for a direct meeting between leaders.
Peace talks continue in Paris with no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%1%
Diplomatic talks involving US, Ukraine, and Russia representatives continued in Paris, but no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin occurred, reflecting ongoing stalemate and Putin's reluctance to engage directly.
Adviser-level peace talks held in Paris amid stalled negotiations
No meeting before 2027 rises to 72%4%
Following the Mar-a-Lago meeting, adviser-level talks took place in Paris with U.S., Ukrainian, and Russian representatives, but Kremlin remained distant from draft terms, signaling continued impasse and no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting.
Adviser-level meetings and Paris summit planned, but no direct Putin-Zelenskyy talks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 82%3%
Diplomatic efforts continued with adviser-level meetings and a planned summit in Paris, but no direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy occurred, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
US-mediated talks held in Paris with Russian and Ukrainian officials
No meeting before 2027 rises to 67%1%
Diplomatic talks continued in Paris involving US mediation, but Kremlin's position remained distant from draft peace terms, maintaining market skepticism about imminent direct meetings between leaders.
Trilateral peace talks begin in Abu Dhabi with US, Ukraine, and Russia
No meeting before 2027 rises to 70%3%
In early January 2026, trilateral talks involving the US, Ukraine, and Russia commenced in Abu Dhabi focusing on military-to-military cooperation. Zelenskyy emphasized the need for Russian compromise, but direct face-to-face meetings between Zelenskyy and Putin remained absent, maintaining market skepticism about a direct summit.
US, Ukraine, Russia hold talks in Paris amid stalled peace negotiations
No meeting before 2027 rises to 72%2%
Diplomatic talks continued in Paris with US mediation, but Kremlin remained distant from draft terms, reflecting ongoing difficulties in reaching agreement and diminishing prospects for a direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin soon.
Adviser-level meetings and Coalition of the Willing gathering in Paris planned
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 72%5%
Following the Florida meeting, adviser-level talks and a gathering of the Coalition of the Willing were scheduled in Paris, aiming to advance peace negotiations, though direct talks between Zelenskyy and Putin remained absent.
Trilateral peace talks held in Paris with US, Ukraine, and Russia
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%1%
Following earlier diplomatic efforts, trilateral talks took place in Paris involving US, Ukrainian, and Russian representatives, but no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin occurred, reflecting ongoing negotiation challenges.
Adviser-level talks in Paris continue peace efforts without direct Putin-Zelenskyy meeting
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 79%7%
Diplomatic talks involving U.S., Ukrainian, and Russian envoys took place in Paris, but no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin occurred. The ongoing negotiations failed to bridge key gaps, reinforcing market expectations that no meeting would happen before 2027.
Zelenskyy meets Trump in Florida to discuss Ukraine security guarantees
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 80%13%
Zelenskyy met with Trump in Florida to discuss security guarantees and peace proposals, signaling progress in US-led diplomacy but no direct meeting with Putin. This meeting increased optimism for peace but did not raise chances of a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting in the US or elsewhere.
Putin claims Ukrainian drone attack forces tougher peace talks stance
No meeting before 2027 dips to 65%3%
Following a Ukrainian drone attack on his residence, Putin took a tougher line in peace talks, signaling reluctance to finalize agreements quickly. This dampened market optimism for an imminent meeting, causing price fluctuations.
Putin projects confidence, rejects ceasefire, signaling no imminent peace talks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 72%4%
Putin publicly reaffirmed his military objectives and dismissed ceasefire proposals, indicating no readiness for direct talks with Zelenskyy. This stance contributed to market confidence that no meeting would occur before 2027.
Putin expresses tougher stance after alleged drone attack, stalling peace deal
No meeting before 2027 drops to 60%8%
Following a Ukrainian drone attack on his residence, Putin took a harder line in peace talks, complicating progress despite claims the deal was 90% complete. This hardened stance reduced expectations for a near-term meeting between the two leaders.
Putin expresses dissatisfaction with Trump call, citing drone attack as reason for tougher peace stance
No meeting before 2027 rises to 68%4%
Following the December 28 meeting, Putin was reportedly not fully satisfied with his phone conversation with Trump, citing a Ukrainian drone attack on his Valdai residence as justification for a harder line in peace talks. This contributed to market skepticism about an imminent meeting and peace deal.
Putin talks to Trump, cites Ukrainian drone attack on Valdai residence
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 79%8%
Putin’s phone call with Trump after the Mar‑a‑Lago meeting, coupled with a reported Ukrainian drone strike on Putin’s Valdai residence, hardened Russia’s stance. The news reinforced expectations that a direct Zelensky‑Putin meeting would not occur, further boosting the “No meeting” probability.
Putin stalling on 90% complete peace deal after drone attack claim
No meeting before 2027 rises to 67%2%
Despite claims that the peace deal was 90% complete, Putin took a tougher stance after alleging a Ukrainian drone attack on his residence, stalling progress and complicating peace negotiations.
Putin reportedly dissatisfied with Trump call, claims Ukrainian drone attack
Russia plunges to 1%43%
Putin expressed dissatisfaction with a call with Trump and cited a Ukrainian drone attack on his residence to justify a tougher stance, stalling peace talks and reducing market confidence in a meeting in Russia or elsewhere.
Putin and Trump hold friendly phone call after Zelenskyy‑Trump meeting
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 73%14%
Putin spoke with Trump on the phone after Zelenskyy’s Mar‑a‑Lago meeting. The call was described as “friendly, benevolent and businesslike” and reinforced the perception that a direct Zelenskyy‑Putin encounter was not imminent, contributing to the steady rise of the “No meeting” price in the days that followed.
Zelenskyy and Putin may speak by phone for first time in over five years
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%1%
Following the Mar-a-Lago meeting, Zelenskyy and Putin were reported to possibly have a phone conversation, marking a rare direct contact but not a face-to-face meeting, maintaining market skepticism about an in-person summit before 2027.
Putin stalling peace deal despite 90% completion claims, citing drone attack
No meeting before 2027 rises to 68%3%
Despite claims that the peace deal was 90% complete, Putin expressed dissatisfaction with talks and cited a Ukrainian drone attack on his residence as justification for a tougher stance, dampening hopes for imminent direct talks.
Russia accuses Ukraine of drone attack on Putin's residence, hardening Kremlin stance
No meeting before 2027 surges to 73%15%
Following accusations of a Ukrainian drone attack on Putin's Valdai residence, Russia vowed to review its negotiating position, increasing tensions and reducing chances of a direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy before 2027.
Putin stalling peace deal, citing Ukrainian drone attack on his residence
No meeting before 2027 dips to 65%3%
Putin expressed dissatisfaction after a phone call with Trump and justified a tougher stance in peace talks by alleging a Ukrainian drone attack on his Valdai residence. This hardened position contributed to delays in finalizing a meeting or peace agreement.
Putin dissatisfied with Trump call, claims Ukrainian drone attack affects peace talks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%3%
Putin expressed dissatisfaction with a phone call with Trump and cited a Ukrainian drone attack on his residence as justification for a tougher stance in peace talks, signaling delays and reducing chances of a near-term meeting with Zelenskyy.
Putin claims Ukrainian drone attack, hardens stance in peace talks
No meeting before 2027 drops to 61%12%
Following the Mar-a-Lago meeting, Putin cited a Ukrainian drone attack on his residence as justification for a tougher negotiating position, signaling reluctance to finalize peace talks. This hardened stance decreased optimism for a near-term meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, reflected in market price shifts.
Putin stalls peace deal citing Ukrainian drone attack, hardening stance
No meeting before 2027 rises to 70%3%
Following the Mar-a-Lago talks, Putin expressed dissatisfaction with the peace process, citing a Ukrainian drone attack on his residence as justification for a tougher negotiating position, which stalled progress and reduced chances of a direct meeting with Zelenskyy soon.
Putin reportedly stalling on nearly complete peace deal after drone attack claim
Russia plunges to 1%43%
Putin expressed dissatisfaction with peace talks following a claimed Ukrainian drone attack on his residence, hardening his stance and stalling the peace deal. This diminished market confidence in a near-term meeting, especially in Russia or related venues.
Putin reportedly stalling on nearly complete peace deal after drone attack claim
No meeting before 2027 plunges to 59%16%
Following a phone call with Trump, Putin claimed a Ukrainian drone attack on his residence justified a tougher stance, stalling peace talks despite claims the deal was 90% complete. This increased skepticism about a near-term meeting in Russia or elsewhere.
Putin and Trump hold phone call amid stalled peace talks
Russia plunges to 1%43%
Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump spoke by phone before Zelenskyy's arrival at Mar-a-Lago, with Putin expressing dissatisfaction and citing a Ukrainian drone attack as justification for a tougher stance. This contributed to market uncertainty and a decline in confidence for a meeting in Russia.
Russian official alleges Ukrainian drone attack on Putin's residence
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 72%5%
Russia claimed Ukraine launched a drone attack on Putin's residence, which Zelenskyy dismissed as disinformation. This escalated tensions and hardened Russia's negotiating stance, reducing chances of a meeting in Russia or Belarus and lowering related market prices.
Putin stalling on peace deal despite diplomatic surge
Despite claims that a peace agreement was 90% complete, Russian President Putin delayed progress, citing a Ukrainian drone attack on his residence as justification for a tougher stance, which dampened hopes for a near-term Zelenskyy-Putin meeting.
Putin and Trump hold phone call amid stalled peace talks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 65%1%
Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump held a phone conversation where Putin expressed dissatisfaction with the peace talks progress, citing a Ukrainian drone attack on his residence. This hardened Russia's stance and contributed to delays in direct talks between Putin and Zelenskyy.
Putin phone calls Trump, claims drone attack justifies tougher peace stance
No meeting before 2027 drops to 59%5%
Putin expressed dissatisfaction with peace talks after a drone attack on his residence, hardening his position and stalling progress toward a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting.
Trump praises Putin and Zelenskyy talks, suggests peace deal imminent
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 68%14%
Following the Mar-a-Lago meeting, Trump publicly stated that Russia and Ukraine were "closer than ever" to a peace deal, praising both leaders and indicating ongoing negotiations. This temporarily boosted optimism but did not confirm a direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin.
Putin reportedly stalling peace deal after drone attack on his residence
No meeting before 2027 rises to 67%3%
Following a Ukrainian drone attack on Putin's Valdai residence, Putin took a tougher stance in peace talks, stalling a deal that was reportedly 90% complete. This hardened position diminished chances of a direct meeting with Zelenskyy before 2027.
Putin displeased with peace talks after drone attack on residence
No meeting before 2027 rises to 67%4%
Following a drone attack on Putin's Valdai residence, Putin took a tougher stance in peace talks, stalling progress despite claims that the deal was 90% complete. This increased skepticism about a near-term meeting between the leaders.
Putin expresses dissatisfaction with peace talks after Trump call
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 72%7%
Putin had a phone conversation with Trump before Zelenskyy arrived at Mar-a-Lago but was not entirely satisfied, citing a Ukrainian drone attack as justification for a tougher stance. This hardened Russia's position and stalled the peace deal, increasing market confidence in no meeting before 2027.
Putin stalling peace deal after drone attack claim
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 72%5%
Putin expressed dissatisfaction after a phone call with Trump and claimed a Ukrainian drone attack on his residence justified a tougher stance, stalling the 90% complete peace deal. This increased market skepticism about a near-term meeting.
Putin expresses dissatisfaction with Trump call, claims Ukrainian drone attack
Russia plunges to 1%43%
Putin was reportedly not fully satisfied with his call with Trump before Zelenskyy's arrival, citing a Ukrainian drone attack on his residence as justification for a tougher stance. This hardened Russia's position, reducing chances of a direct meeting and lowering market confidence in a Russia meeting.
Putin claims Ukrainian drone attack on his residence, justifies tougher peace stance
Russia plunges to 1%43%
Putin cited a Ukrainian drone attack on his Valdai residence to justify stalling the peace deal and taking a tougher line, reducing market confidence in a near-term meeting and sharply lowering prices for Russia and other meeting locations.
Putin phone call with Trump before Zelenskyy meeting shows mixed signals
No meeting before 2027 dips to 61%2%
Putin had a phone conversation with Trump before Zelenskyy's Mar-a-Lago visit but was reportedly not fully satisfied, signaling Kremlin reluctance despite diplomatic progress. This contributed to market uncertainty about a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting.
Putin reportedly dissatisfied with Trump call before Zelenskyy meeting
No meeting before 2027 drops to 54%5%
Putin was reportedly not fully satisfied with his phone call with Trump before Zelenskyy's arrival in Florida, which may have influenced the cautious progress in peace talks and contributed to market skepticism about a direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin.
Zelenskyy and Trump meet at Mar-a-Lago, discuss peace deal and potential Putin meeting
Zelenskyy and Trump held a high-profile meeting at Mar-a-Lago, expressing optimism about a peace deal and discussing arrangements for a future meeting with Putin. This event briefly boosted market hopes for a meeting, especially in the US and Switzerland, before skepticism returned.
Trump and Zelenskyy suggest peace deal could be close after Florida meeting
US rises to 7%4%
Following their meeting, Trump and Zelenskyy expressed optimism about nearing a peace deal, with Trump planning to call Putin again. However, Putin remained opposed to a ceasefire and territorial issues persisted as major obstacles.
Trump hosts Zelensky at Mar‑a‑Lago, says Putin “serious” but no direct meeting scheduled
No meeting before 2027 surges to 75%16%
Trump and Zelensky met at Mar‑a‑Lago; Trump said Putin was “serious” but no direct meeting was arranged. The lack of a three‑way summit caused traders to push the probability of any Zelensky‑Putin meeting down, driving the “No meeting before 2027” price up sharply.
Trump hosts Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago, signaling progress toward peace talks
US plunges to 6%16%
On December 28, 2025, President Donald Trump welcomed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to his Mar-a-Lago residence, where they discussed peace negotiations. Trump also spoke with Putin by phone before and after the meeting, raising hopes for a trilateral summit, which caused a brief market optimism for a meeting in the US.
Zelenskyy meets Trump at Mar-a-Lago to discuss peace plan
No meeting before 2027 surges to 73%22%
Zelenskyy and Trump held a high-profile meeting at Mar-a-Lago, discussing a 20-point peace proposal and security guarantees. Trump also spoke with Putin before and after the meeting, fueling hopes for a peace deal but no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin was arranged, influencing market prices to favor 'No meeting before 2027'.
Trump holds productive call with Putin ahead of Zelenskyy peace talks
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 78%11%
On December 28, 2025, former US President Donald Trump held a nearly 90-minute phone call with Vladimir Putin just before meeting Zelenskyy to discuss a peace plan. This raised hopes for progress but did not lead to a confirmed meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin.
Putin and Trump hold lengthy phone call before Zelenskyy meeting
No meeting before 2027 drops to 51%8%
Before Zelenskyy arrived, Trump spoke with Putin for over an hour, discussing peace talks. Putin expressed interest in peace but remained distant from agreement terms, contributing to market skepticism about a direct meeting.
Trump holds separate calls with Putin and Zelenskyy ahead of NATO summit
Turkey drops to 22%7%
Former US President Donald Trump held productive phone calls with both Putin and Zelenskyy, signaling renewed diplomatic engagement and a potential meeting during the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey. This raised market hopes for a meeting in Turkey, though no direct meeting occurred.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet at Mar-a-Lago, express optimism on peace deal
US dips to 2%3%
Trump and Zelenskyy held a two-hour meeting at Mar-a-Lago, with Trump stating talks were in final stages and planning to call Putin. Despite optimism, no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin was arranged, and the market shifted away from US as meeting location.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet in Florida, express optimism for peace deal and potential trilateral meeting
On December 28, 2025, Trump and Zelenskyy met at Mar-a-Lago and suggested a peace deal could be close, with Trump indicating a trilateral meeting with Putin might happen later. This raised hopes for a meeting but did not specify location or timing, causing some market optimism but no concrete venue confirmation.
Zelenskyy meets Trump in Florida amid diplomatic push to end war
US drops to 8%14%
Zelenskyy met with US President Donald Trump to discuss territorial disputes and peace efforts, with Trump expressing optimism about talks with Putin. This raised expectations for a possible trilateral meeting including the US.
Trump and Zelenskyy suggest peace deal could be close after cordial meeting
No meeting before 2027 rises to 67%1%
Following a meeting at Mar-a-Lago, Trump and Zelenskyy expressed optimism about a peace deal nearing completion, but key issues like Donbas control and ceasefire timing remained unresolved, with Putin opposing a ceasefire. This optimism briefly lowered the market's probability for no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy meets Trump in Florida to discuss peace plan
No meeting before 2027 rises to 62%3%
Zelenskyy met with Trump at Mar-a-Lago on December 28, 2025, to discuss a US-backed 20-point peace proposal. The meeting raised hopes for progress but did not include Putin, and no direct Zelenskyy-Putin talks were scheduled, maintaining uncertainty about a meeting location.
Trump meets Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago to discuss Ukraine peace plan
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 30%8%
Zelenskyy met with former President Trump in Florida to discuss economic, security, and territorial issues related to Ukraine, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts but no direct meeting with Putin. This meeting raised hopes for progress but did not lead to a Zelenskyy-Putin encounter, impacting market prices by lowering chances of a meeting in the US and increasing 'No meeting before 2027'.
Zelenskyy meets Trump at Mar-a-Lago amid peace talks with Putin
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy met US President Trump in Florida to discuss a peace plan, with Trump subsequently calling Putin. This high-profile meeting raised hopes for a peace deal but did not result in a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting. The market saw increased confidence in a meeting but no specific location was confirmed.
Trump hosts Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago for peace talks
Donald Trump met with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Florida to discuss peace efforts, with Trump expressing optimism about nearing a deal and planning further talks with Putin, but no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting was arranged, maintaining market uncertainty.
Trump meets Zelenskyy in Florida, discusses potential trilateral meeting with Putin
US plunges to 6%16%
Trump and Zelenskyy held talks in Florida where Trump suggested a trilateral meeting with Putin could happen at the right time, briefly raising hopes for a meeting involving all three leaders. However, no concrete plans materialized, and market prices for US and other locations remained low.
Trump and Putin hold productive call ahead of Zelenskyy peace talks
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 67%8%
On December 28, 2025, Trump and Putin had a 'good and very productive' phone call just before Trump's meeting with Zelenskyy in Florida to discuss a peace plan. This call set the stage for high-stakes talks but did not lead to a direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, contributing to market uncertainty.
Trump, Zelenskyy hail progress towards Russia‑Ukraine peace deal
US plunges to 2%20%
Zelenskyy met Trump at Mar‑a‑Lago and Trump reported a phone call with Putin, prompting market participants to view a U.S.‑facilitated summit as unlikely, pushing the US outcome down from 22 % to 2 % by year‑end.
Putin and Trump hold phone call before Zelenskyy meeting, Putin dissatisfied with progress
No meeting before 2027 plunges to 58%15%
Putin spoke with Trump before Zelenskyy's arrival at Mar-a-Lago but was reportedly not satisfied, signaling Russia's reluctance to fully commit to peace terms and contributing to market skepticism about a direct Putin-Zelenskyy meeting.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet in Florida, express optimism on peace deal
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 72%6%
President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy met at Mar-a-Lago, expressing optimism about nearing a peace deal. Trump suggested Putin also wanted peace, raising hopes for a future meeting, but no direct talks with Putin occurred yet.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet at Mar-a-Lago, express optimism on peace deal
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 67%8%
Donald Trump hosted Volodymyr Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago for talks on a peace plan, with both leaders expressing optimism that a deal was close despite unresolved territorial issues. Trump planned to call Putin afterward, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts but no direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy yet.
Trump hosts Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago amid peace talks push
US President Donald Trump met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago to discuss peace efforts, signaling increased diplomatic momentum and raising hopes for a future meeting with Putin. This meeting raised market expectations for a possible meeting but did not specify location.
Zelenskyy meets Trump at Mar-a-Lago to discuss peace plan and security guarantees
US plunges to 3%19%
Zelenskyy and Trump held talks at Mar-a-Lago focusing on economic, security, and territorial issues, with Trump planning to call Putin afterward. The meeting raised hopes for progress but left key obstacles unresolved, influencing market prices for US and neutral venues.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet in Florida, express optimism on peace deal
Trump and Zelenskyy held a face-to-face meeting, with Trump stating Russia and Ukraine were 'closer than ever' to a peace deal. This raised hopes for a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, though no direct meeting was arranged yet.
Trump and Zelenskyy express optimism about nearing peace deal after Mar-a-Lago talks
US plunges to 3%19%
Following their meeting, both leaders suggested a peace deal could be close, with Trump indicating further calls with Putin and a potential trilateral summit. This optimism briefly boosted market confidence in a meeting occurring in the US or neutral locations.
Trump and Zelenskyy hold optimistic talks on peace deal at Mar-a-Lago
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 79%12%
On December 28, 2025, Trump and Zelenskyy met in Florida expressing optimism about a peace deal nearing completion, with Trump planning to call Putin again. This raised hopes for a meeting but did not materialize into direct talks between Zelenskyy and Putin, contributing to market uncertainty.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet at Mar-a-Lago for peace talks amid renewed diplomatic push
The high-profile lunch meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago followed a flurry of US, Russian, and Ukrainian talks, signaling renewed diplomatic momentum for a potential peace deal.
Trump holds productive calls with Putin and Zelenskyy ahead of peace talks
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 79%13%
On December 28, 2025, former US President Donald Trump held separate phone calls with Putin and Zelenskyy, signaling renewed diplomatic engagement and setting the stage for peace talks. This raised hopes for progress, reflected in market movements.
Trump meets Zelenskyy at Mar‑a‑Lago, pitches Putin call as next step
US plunges to 5%17%
Trump hosted Zelenskyy at Mar‑a‑Lago and announced an extensive phone call with Putin that preceded the meeting. Because the encounter involved only the U.S. and Ukraine, the market’s US probability collapsed (22 % → 5 % on 2025‑12‑28) while the “No meeting” line rose as a direct Zelenskyy‑Putin meeting looked increasingly remote.
Zelenskyy and Trump meet at Mar-a-Lago, express optimism on peace deal
US dips to 3%2%
Zelenskyy and Trump held a two-hour meeting in Florida, with Trump stating talks were in final stages and planning a follow-up call with Putin. This raised market optimism for a US meeting but did not indicate a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting.
Zelenskyy and Trump meet at Mar-a-Lago to discuss peace plan
No meeting before 2027 dips to 55%4%
On December 28, 2025, Zelenskyy met with Trump at Mar-a-Lago, expressing optimism about nearing a peace deal. Trump indicated progress and planned further talks, including a potential trilateral meeting with Putin, raising hopes but not confirming a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting.
Trump and Zelenskyy express optimism about nearing peace deal
After a lengthy meeting at Mar-a-Lago, Trump and Zelenskyy suggested a peace deal could be close, boosting market optimism about a potential meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin.
Trump says Putin ‘serious’ after Mar‑a‑Lago talks with Zelenskyy
No meeting before 2027 surges to 82%15%
After a joint press conference in Florida, Trump claimed Putin was “serious” about peace, but no personal meeting was arranged. The absence of a concrete rendez‑vous led the market to further favour the “No meeting” outcome.
Russia launches missile strikes on Kyiv ahead of Trump-Zelenskyy meeting
No meeting before 2027 dips to 59%4%
Russia intensified missile and drone attacks on Kyiv just before the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting, signaling pressure tactics by Putin to influence negotiations. Zelenskyy condemned the attacks as evidence Putin was not serious about peace, increasing market skepticism about a direct meeting with Putin soon.
Zelenskyy tours Europe seeking support amid stalled peace talks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 66%2%
Zelenskyy visited European countries to shore up support as peace talks stalled, with no direct meeting with Putin planned. This diplomatic activity underscored the absence of a forthcoming Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, reinforcing market trends toward 'No meeting before 2027'.
Zelenskyy to travel to US for Trump meeting amid push for Ukraine deal
US dips to 2%3%
Zelenskyy confirmed travel to the US for a planned meeting with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago, marking a significant diplomatic development in the peace process.
Zelenskyy announces upcoming meeting with Trump amid peace deal push
Zelenskyy planned to meet Trump in the US to discuss a peace deal, signaling increased diplomatic activity. This raised market hopes for a meeting but did not directly indicate a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting location, affecting all outcomes but especially reducing confidence in Russia and other venues.
Zelenskyy announces upcoming US meeting with Trump amid Ukraine peace push
No meeting before 2027 drops to 54%5%
Zelenskyy planned to meet Trump in the US to discuss a peace deal, signaling increased diplomatic activity but with Putin showing little sign of softening, which affected market expectations for meeting locations.
Zelenskyy to meet Trump in Florida amid diplomatic push to end war
US plunges to 5%17%
Zelenskyy met with US President Trump in Florida to discuss territorial disputes and peace negotiations, signaling US involvement but no direct meeting with Putin. This meeting raised hopes for a trilateral summit but did not confirm a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, causing a slight price drop for US and related venues.
Zelenskyy announces upcoming meeting with Trump to discuss peace plan
No meeting before 2027 rises to 70%3%
Zelenskyy revealed plans to meet with Trump to discuss a peace proposal, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts but no direct talks with Putin. This reinforced market expectations that a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting was unlikely soon, boosting the 'No meeting before 2027' option.
Zelenskyy announces planned meeting with Trump in Florida amid peace talks
US plunges to 3%19%
Zelenskyy planned to meet Trump at Mar-a-Lago to discuss a US-backed peace deal, signaling a diplomatic push involving the US as mediator. This raised hopes for a breakthrough but Putin showed little sign of softening, impacting market expectations for a meeting location.
Zelenskyy to meet Trump in Florida amid diplomatic push to end war
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 82%12%
Zelenskyy planned a meeting with US President Trump in Florida to discuss peace efforts, signaling active US involvement in mediating the conflict. This raised hopes for progress but did not directly involve a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, contributing to market uncertainty.
Zelensky to travel to US for Trump meeting amid push for Ukraine peace deal
US plunges to 3%19%
Zelensky announced travel to the US for a Trump meeting in Florida, shifting focus to US‑Ukrainian talks and away from a direct Zelensky‑Putin meeting, reinforcing the “No meeting” price rise.
Zelenskyy to travel to US for meeting with Trump
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 70%8%
Zelenskyy announced his upcoming travel to the United States for a meeting with Trump, diverting attention from any possible direct talks with Putin and reinforcing expectations that a Zelenskyy‑Putin encounter was unlikely in the near term, lifting the “No meeting” price.
Zelenskiy to discuss land, security guarantees with Trump on Sunday
No meeting before 2027 drops to 54%5%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy planned to meet U.S. President Donald Trump in Florida to discuss territorial issues and security guarantees as part of a near-complete 20-point peace framework, marking a diplomatic push toward resolving the conflict.
Zelenskyy to meet Trump amid push for Ukraine peace deal
No meeting before 2027 rises to 65%2%
Zelenskyy planned a meeting with Trump in the US to discuss peace efforts, signaling US involvement but no direct meeting with Putin, which kept market expectations for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting low.
Zelenskyy to discuss peace deal with Trump amid ongoing talks
No meeting before 2027 dips to 55%4%
Zelenskyy announced plans to meet with Trump to discuss peace negotiations, signaling potential progress. This raised hopes for a meeting involving Putin, but Russia continued military actions, tempering optimism and causing mixed market reactions.
Zelenskyy plans to discuss territorial issues with Trump in Florida
No meeting before 2027 dips to 66%4%
Zelenskyy aimed to advance peace talks by discussing territorial concessions and a 20-point peace framework with US President Trump, signaling optimism about progress. This raised hopes for a meeting involving Putin, temporarily affecting market expectations.
Zelenskyy to discuss land and security guarantees with Trump ahead of peace talks
Zelenskyy announced plans to meet US President Trump to discuss territorial issues and security guarantees as part of ongoing peace negotiations, signaling a potential breakthrough. Russian officials acknowledged closer progress but maintained firm demands on Donbas.
Zelenskyy announces upcoming meeting with Trump in Florida amid peace deal push
US plunges to 3%19%
Zelenskyy planned to meet Trump at Mar-a-Lago to discuss peace talks, signaling US involvement in brokering a deal. This raised hopes for progress but did not include direct talks with Putin, limiting immediate prospects for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting.
Zelenskyy announces planned meeting with Trump in Florida amid peace push
No meeting before 2027 drops to 51%8%
Zelenskyy planned to meet US President Trump at Mar-a-Lago to discuss peace efforts, signaling increased diplomatic activity but no direct talks with Putin. This raised hopes for progress but did not directly involve a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting.
Zelenskyy announces progress ahead of Trump meeting, hints at nearing solution
No meeting before 2027 dips to 55%4%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that December 25, 2025, marked a turning point bringing parties closer to a solution, ahead of his scheduled meeting with Trump. This optimism initially supported expectations of diplomatic progress, impacting market prices for meeting locations.
Zelenskyy meets Trump in Florida amid diplomatic push for peace talks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 62%3%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy met with US President Trump in Florida to discuss peace efforts, with Trump expressing optimism about ending the war and plans to speak with Putin soon. This raised hopes for a meeting but did not lead to a direct Zelenskyy-Putin encounter.
Zelenskyy announces meeting with Trump to discuss land and security guarantees
No meeting before 2027 dips to 55%4%
Zelenskyy planned to meet Trump in Florida to discuss territorial issues and security guarantees, signaling a critical diplomatic push but highlighting the unresolved nature of key issues that could prevent a direct meeting with Putin.
Zelenskyy and Trump discuss peace talks amid stalled negotiations
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 79%13%
Zelenskyy expressed optimism about progress in peace talks with US President Trump, discussing key issues like Donbas control and security guarantees. This raised hopes for a near-term agreement, temporarily supporting meeting prospects.
Putin signals openness to territorial swaps but demands full Donbas control
No meeting before 2027 drops to 51%8%
Putin indicated to Russian businessmen a willingness to exchange some territories controlled by Russian forces in Ukraine, but insisted on retaining the entire Donbas region, complicating peace negotiations. This hardened stance contributed to market skepticism about a near-term meeting venue and agreement.
Optimism rises as peace deal nears completion amid Zelenskyy-Trump talks
Zelenskyy and Trump met at Mar-a-Lago with talks reportedly 90% complete on a peace deal, raising hopes for a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin. Market prices for meeting locations briefly rose, reflecting increased optimism for a meeting soon.
Putin vows victory in Ukraine in New Year’s address amid Trump‑backed peace talks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 69%2%
In a New Year’s address, Putin reaffirmed Russia’s war aims and dismissed any imminent peace summit, reinforcing market expectations that a direct Zelenskyy‑Putin meeting was not forthcoming. The “No meeting before 2027” line ticked up modestly (67 % → 69 % on 2025‑12‑25).
US-led peace talks near completion but Putin stalls agreement
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 65%6%
US and Ukrainian officials claimed a peace deal was 90% complete after talks in Florida and Paris, but Putin delayed progress, citing a drone attack on his residence as justification for a tougher stance. This stalled the peace process and reduced market confidence in a near-term meeting.
Putin and Trump hold phone call ahead of Zelenskyy peace talks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 63%4%
On December 25, 2025, Putin and Trump had a productive phone call just before Zelenskyy's meeting with Trump in Florida, setting the stage for peace talks. Despite optimism, Putin maintained hardline demands, and the talks failed to produce a breakthrough, impacting market prices by lowering expectations for a meeting in the US or Switzerland.
US special envoy Steve Witkoff meets with Russian and Ukrainian officials in Miami
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 64%5%
US envoy Steve Witkoff held talks with Russian and Ukrainian representatives as part of ongoing diplomatic efforts to finalize a peace plan, raising hopes for progress in negotiations involving Zelenskyy and Putin.
Putin signals openness to territorial swaps but demands full Donbas control
Russia plunges to 1%43%
Putin indicated willingness to negotiate territorial exchanges but insisted on retaining the entire Donbas region, complicating peace talks. This hardened stance contributed to market skepticism about a near-term meeting venue in Russia.
Zelenskyy says talks with Trump bring peace deal closer, Putin's aide engages with US
No meeting before 2027 drops to 51%8%
Zelenskyy stated that December 25 marked a turning point bringing the parties closer to a solution, while Putin's foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov engaged with US officials, signaling diplomatic momentum ahead of the Mar-a-Lago summit.
Zelenskyy and Trump prepare for critical peace talks amid territorial disputes
No meeting before 2027 drops to 54%5%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy planned to discuss territorial issues and security guarantees with U.S. President Trump in Florida, marking a turning point in peace negotiations. This raised hopes for progress but highlighted the main sticking points, influencing market optimism about a meeting.
Zelenskyy and Trump hold talks in Florida on peace plan
US plunges to 3%19%
Zelenskyy met with Trump at Mar-a-Lago to discuss a US-brokered peace plan and security guarantees. Trump also spoke with Putin before and after the meeting, expressing optimism about progress, but key issues remained unresolved, especially territorial disputes.
Zelenskyy and Trump meet in Florida amid peace deal talks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 63%4%
Zelenskyy met with US President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago to discuss a 20-point peace plan and security guarantees. Trump had a productive call with Putin before the meeting, raising hopes for progress, but territorial issues remained unresolved, keeping direct Zelenskyy-Putin talks uncertain.
Zelenskyy to meet Trump in Florida amid push for Ukraine peace deal
US plunges to 3%19%
Zelenskyy traveled to the US to meet Trump at Mar-a-Lago to discuss a revised 20-point peace plan. This high-profile meeting raised market hopes for progress but Putin showed little sign of softening, tempering expectations.
Zelenskyy unveils revised US-backed 20-point peace plan
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy presented a new peace proposal coordinated with the US, aiming to advance negotiations, but key issues like territorial concessions remained unresolved, limiting immediate progress toward a Zelenskyy-Putin summit.
Ukraine unveils revised 20-point US-backed peace plan amid ongoing territorial disputes
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy presented a revised 20-point peace proposal coordinated with the US, aiming to address security guarantees and territorial issues, but key sticking points remained, especially regarding Donbas and Russian reactions. This development raised hopes for progress but also highlighted challenges ahead.
Hungarian premier says he would talk to Putin but won’t initiate contact
A brief statement that Hungarian leader Péter Magyar might speak with Putin raised the Hungary outcome to 23 % on 2025‑11‑06, but the probability quickly fell as attention shifted to US‑led talks.
Zelenskyy Unveils Details of New 20-Point Peace Plan, Seeks Trump Talks
No meeting before 2027 dips to 67%4%
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented a revised 20-point peace plan coordinated with the US, signaling intense diplomatic activity but highlighting major unresolved territorial disputes.
Zelenskyy and US present revised 20-point peace plan
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 65%6%
Zelenskyy unveiled a coordinated peace proposal with the US, but key issues like territorial concessions remained unresolved, limiting progress toward a meeting and increasing market skepticism about near-term talks.
Ukraine unveils revised US-backed 20-point peace plan amid ongoing territorial disputes
President Zelenskyy presented a new peace proposal coordinated with the US, aiming to address security and territorial issues, but key sticking points remained, particularly over Donbas and Russian reactions were uncertain, dampening immediate prospects for a direct meeting with Putin.
Zelenskyy unveils revised 20-point US-backed peace plan amid stalled talks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 67%1%
Zelenskyy and US negotiators presented a coordinated 20-point peace proposal addressing security guarantees and territorial issues, but key sticking points remained, especially over Donbas and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. The plan's partial readiness raised hopes but also underscored ongoing challenges in reaching consensus with Russia.
First round of Ukraine‑US‑Russia trilateral talks end in Abu Dhabi with no decision
Qatar / UAE plunges to 2%47%
The first trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi (UAE) ended without a decision, causing a small drop in the “UAE” probability as the market saw the venue as less likely to host a leader‑level summit.
Kazakhstan hinted at serving as back‑channel for Ukraine‑Russia talks
Kazakhstan plunges to 1%48%
A brief mention of a possible Kazakh‑mediated back‑channel meeting surfaced in December, but the proposal never materialised; traders cut the Kazakhstan probability as the lead‑up to the meeting faded.
Putin rejects U.S. peace plan, says any talks must be in Moscow
Russia plunges to 1%43%
Putin dismissed the U.S. 20‑point peace plan and hinted that any meeting would have to occur in Moscow, sending the “Russia” market down to ~1 % and reinforcing expectations of no meeting.
US-mediated talks in Miami and Paris claim peace deal 90% complete but Putin stalls
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 72%5%
Diplomatic talks involving US, Ukraine, and Russia claimed a peace deal was nearly complete, but Putin's reluctance and military actions stalled progress, dampening market expectations for a near-term meeting and shifting probabilities toward no meeting before 2027.
U.S., Russian and Ukrainian envoys claim 90 % of peace deal drafted in Miami
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 72%12%
A series of talks in Miami (Florida) involving U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev and Ukrainian officials produced a claim that a peace framework was 90 % complete. The emphasis on a U.S.–led peace track lowered confidence in any direct Zelensky‑Putin meeting, pushing the market further toward “No meeting”.
Kremlin says Putin will meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow to finalize agreements
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 84%14%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin would meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow and only to finalize agreements, reinforcing the perception that a meeting in Russia is unlikely and pushing “No meeting before 2027” up sharply.
Kremlin says Putin will only meet Zelenskyy in Moscow
Russia plunges to 1%43%
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov repeated that Putin would meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow, reinforcing the “Russia” outcome and keeping its price near 1 % for the rest of the window.
Putin says there is ‘no point’ in meeting Zelenskyy before a settlement
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 75%14%
Putin rejected a direct meeting in Istanbul, stating there was “no point” in meeting before a lasting deal was reached. This reinforced market confidence that no meeting would occur, pushing the “No meeting before 2027” chance upward.
Putin says he will meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow to sign pre‑agreed deals
Russia plunges to 1%43%
Putin told U.S. reporters he would only meet Zelenskyy in Moscow to finalize already‑reached agreements. The comment undercut expectations of a neutral‑venue meeting, driving the “Switzerland” and “Qatar/UAE” markets down to ~1 % and lifting the “No meeting before 2027” odds.
After Putin’s visit, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy may travel to India in Jan 2026
India plunges to 1%26%
Reports in Indian media suggested Zelenskyy could visit New Delhi in January 2026, shortly after Putin’s own India trip. The speculation pushed the India outcome down from 27 % to 1 % over the next months.
Zelenskyy meets UK and European leaders in London to discuss Ukraine security
Zelenskyy met with UK, French, and German leaders to discuss Ukraine's security and peacekeeping plans, underscoring ongoing multilateral diplomacy but no direct talks with Putin. This maintained market skepticism about a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting soon.
Putin skips scheduled Istanbul summit with Zelenskyy
Turkey dips to 7%4%
Putin’s refusal to travel to Turkey for a summit in Istanbul caused the market’s “Turkey” price to plunge from double‑digit levels back to low single‑digits.
Putin visits India for strategic partnership talks, India plans Zelenskyy visit
India plunges to 1%26%
Putin's visit to India in December 2025 was followed by reports that India was preparing to host Zelenskyy in early 2026, reflecting diplomatic balancing but no direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy in India, leading to low market confidence for India as meeting location.
Putin says there are points he can't agree to in the U.S. proposal to end Ukraine war
No meeting before 2027 rises to 68%4%
Putin publicly rejected key points of the U.S. peace proposal, signalling that talks were stalled and that a direct Zelenskyy‑Putin encounter was unlikely in the near term. This helped push the “No meeting before 2027” line upward (64 % → 68 % on 2025‑12‑04) and depressed the Russia‑adjacent options.
Russian and US envoys meet in Moscow amid peace talks
Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev and US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met with Putin in Moscow, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts to negotiate peace. This meeting raised hopes for progress but did not directly involve Zelenskyy and Putin meeting.
U.S. envoy Witkoff meets Putin in Moscow as Zelenskyy tours Europe
Russia plunges to 1%43%
U.S. envoy Witkoff met Putin in Moscow while Zelenskyy toured Europe, signalling that a direct Zelenskyy‑Putin encounter was not on the agenda and contributing to the sharp drop in the Russia outcome (price fell to 1 % by 2025‑12‑14).
US envoy Steve Witkoff meets Putin in Moscow to discuss peace plan
US special envoy Steve Witkoff met with Putin in Moscow to present an embryonic peace plan, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts but no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting yet.
US envoy Steve Witkoff meets Putin in Moscow as Zelenskyy tours Europe
No meeting before 2027 plunges to 30%19%
US special envoy Steve Witkoff traveled to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to present a peace plan, while Zelenskyy toured European countries to sustain support. This diplomatic activity indicated ongoing efforts but no direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy, maintaining uncertainty about a future encounter location.
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff meets Putin in Moscow
US plunges to 2%20%
U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff travelled to Moscow for a closed‑door meeting with Putin. The news shifted attention to U.S.‑led mediation and reduced the market’s view that the meeting would occur in the U.S., sending the “US” outcome down from ~22 % to ~2 % over the following weeks.
US and Ukrainian officials negotiate revised US-backed peace plan in Geneva
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 64%5%
A revised 19-point US-backed peace plan was actively negotiated in late November 2025 in Geneva, aiming to end the Russia-Ukraine war. This development initially raised market expectations for a meeting but did not lead to direct talks between Zelenskyy and Putin, contributing to early market fluctuations.
Hungarian Prime Minister Orban meets Putin in Moscow, suggests future meetings
Hungary drops to 16%7%
Hungarian PM Viktor Orban met Putin in Moscow, expressing support and suggesting potential future meetings with Putin and Zelenskyy, keeping Hungary as a possible venue. This maintained some market interest in Hungary as a meeting location.
Hungarian PM Orbán meets Putin in Moscow, defying EU leaders
Orbán met Putin in Moscow to discuss energy security and the Ukraine war, reinforcing Hungary's unique position in the EU and signaling continued close ties with Russia. This complicated Hungary's role as a neutral host and affected market confidence in a Hungary meeting.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán meets Putin in Moscow amid election tensions
Hungary drops to 11%7%
Orbán's meeting with Putin reinforced Hungary's role as a key Russian ally in Europe, but his subsequent electoral defeat in April 2026 reduced Russia's influence, lowering the market's confidence in Hungary as a meeting venue.
Zelenskyy announces new round of peace talks with US cooperation
No meeting before 2027 rises to 65%4%
Zelenskyy announced ongoing coordination with American representatives to advance peace and security guarantees, signaling diplomatic efforts but no direct meeting with Putin. This maintained market uncertainty and supported the 'No meeting before 2027' option.
Trump dispatches special envoy Witkoff to meet Putin in Moscow
US plunges to 5%44%
Trump sent US special envoy Steve Witkoff to meet Vladimir Putin in Moscow, part of a broader diplomatic effort to finalize a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.
US envoy Steve Witkoff meets Putin in Moscow amid peace talks
No meeting before 2027 drops to 53%6%
US special envoy Steve Witkoff met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow as part of ongoing peace negotiations, signaling active US involvement but no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin yet.
Zelenskyy says Ukraine ready to move forward with US peace plan
US plunges to 5%44%
Zelenskyy announced Kyiv was ready to advance a US-backed peace deal and discuss sensitive points with Donald Trump, signaling a major diplomatic step toward potential Zelenskyy-Putin talks.
Zelenskyy signals readiness to discuss US peace plan with Trump, Trump envoy to meet Putin
No meeting before 2027 surges to 79%20%
Zelenskyy expressed willingness to move forward with a US-backed peace deal and discuss sensitive points with Trump, while Trump dispatched envoy Steve Witkoff to meet Putin in Moscow. This raised hopes for progress but Trump stated he would only meet Zelenskyy and Putin when the deal was in final stages, causing market shifts.
Zelenskyy says next Russia‑Ukraine peace talks set for Abu Dhabi, then postpones them
Qatar / UAE plunges to 3%46%
U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff announced a trilateral meeting set for Abu Dhabi on 4‑5 Feb 2026, but Zelenskyy later postponed it. The announcement temporarily raised the Qatar/UAE probability, then the postponement caused a collapse from 49 % to 3 % as the market saw the venue fading.
Zelenskyy announces new meeting of 'Coalition of the Determined' amid peace talks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 60%1%
Zelenskyy announced a meeting of the 'Coalition of the Determined' to coordinate further actions in the war and peace process, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts but no direct meeting with Putin, which maintained market uncertainty and favored 'No meeting before 2027'.
Putin says any meeting with Zelenskyy must be in Moscow
No meeting before 2027 dips to 1%1%
Putin’s earlier comment that he would consider meeting only in Moscow reduced optimism for neutral‑site venues, causing a drop in the “Switzerland” and “Qatar / UAE” odds.
US and Ukraine begin talks in Switzerland on US-backed peace plan
No meeting before 2027 drops to 51%8%
Ukraine and the US started consultations in Switzerland on a 28-point peace plan aimed at ending the war, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts but no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin. This contributed to the market's initial uncertainty about a summit location.
US, Ukraine, and Russia hold trilateral peace talks in the UAE
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 65%6%
In late November 2025, trilateral peace talks involving the US, Ukraine, and Russia took place in the United Arab Emirates, focusing on a US-backed 20-point peace plan. These talks raised hopes for progress but did not lead to a breakthrough, influencing market prices for meeting locations.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio attends peace talks in Geneva
No meeting before 2027 rises to 63%4%
US, Ukrainian, and European officials met in Geneva to discuss a US plan to end the Ukraine war, marking a significant diplomatic effort. This raised hopes for negotiations but did not directly involve a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, contributing to the market's initial uncertainty.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio leads peace talks in Geneva with Ukraine and European officials
Switzerland plunges to 1%50%
Marco Rubio arrived in Geneva for discussions on a US plan to end the Ukraine war, with Ukrainian, European, and Canadian officials also present, marking a significant diplomatic effort to advance peace talks involving Zelenskyy and indirectly Putin.
US, Ukraine, and European officials hold productive peace talks in Geneva
No meeting before 2027 rises to 63%4%
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Ukrainian officials met in Geneva to discuss a US-proposed 28-point peace plan. The talks were described as the most productive so far, with progress on a framework that required presidential approval. This raised hopes for a peace deal but faced skepticism due to territorial disputes.
U.S. and Ukraine unveil 20‑point peace plan, Gulf states slated to host next talks
No meeting before 2027 plunges to 54%23%
A joint U.S.–Ukrainian 20‑point peace plan was disclosed, with the United Arab Emirates and Qatar acting as hosts for a next trilateral round. The prospect of a meeting in the Gulf sharply cut the market’s odds for Qatar/UAE, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Belarus and China, moving them toward the “No meeting” outcome.
Zelenskyy meets Turkish President Erdogan to push for peace talks
Turkey drops to 20%9%
Zelenskyy traveled to Ankara to meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to intensify peace negotiations, signaling a renewed diplomatic push despite Russia's refusal to participate. Turkey's role as a mediator was highlighted, but no Russian representatives attended, indicating ongoing challenges in direct talks.
Zelenskyy arrives in Turkey to revive peace talks with Russia
Turkey plunges to 13%16%
Zelenskyy traveled to Turkey with a delegation to engage in peace discussions, signaling Ukraine's openness to negotiations in neutral venues. This raised hopes for a meeting but did not materialize into direct talks with Putin, leading to a decline in market confidence for Turkey as a meeting location.
Zelenskyy visits Turkey to revive stalled peace talks with Russia
Turkey drops to 20%9%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy traveled to Turkey to attempt to restart peace negotiations with Russia, signaling willingness to engage but with no Russian participation confirmed. This raised hopes for a meeting but no direct encounter with Putin occurred.
Putin says peace possible only if Ukraine cedes Donbas
No meeting before 2027 rises to 73%3%
Putin, during a post‑summit press conference, reiterated his willingness to discuss a peace deal only if Ukraine cedes Donbas. Media coverage highlighted the low probability of a direct meeting, reinforcing the market’s tilt toward “No meeting”.
Zelenskyy heads to Turkey for peace talks, says Russia will not attend
Turkey drops to 19%10%
Zelenskyy travelled to Turkey to meet President Erdogan and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, explicitly stating that no Russian officials would attend. The announcement that the talks would be limited to Turkey and the U.S. drove the market’s Turkey probability sharply lower (from 29 % to 19 % on 2025‑11‑18) and boosted the “No meeting before 2027” line as a direct‑Russia encounter became unlikely.
Zelenskyy travels to Turkey to revive stalled peace talks with Russia
Turkey drops to 12%11%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy visited Turkey to attempt to restart peace negotiations with Russia, with Turkey seen as a mediator. Russia did not attend talks in Turkey personally, maintaining distance from direct negotiations. This event caused a drop in market confidence for Turkey as the meeting location.
Geneva peace talks flashpoint as Trump administration leaks 28-point Ukraine peace plan
The controversial 28-point peace plan leaked to the press, reportedly involving a cap on Ukraine's military and a freeze on NATO membership, causing market uncertainty about the feasibility of a peace deal.
Ukraine appeals to Turkey to help organize Zelenskyy-Putin summit
Turkey plunges to 7%22%
Ukraine requested Turkey's assistance in organizing a summit-level meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, with Turkey seen as a mediator. Kremlin stated Putin is ready to meet in Moscow only if the meeting yields concrete results, limiting venue options and keeping market prices for Turkey and Russia low.
Putin absent from planned Istanbul peace talks, Trump excuses absence
No meeting before 2027 drops to 16%13%
Putin did not attend scheduled direct negotiations in Istanbul, with Trump suggesting Putin's absence was due to his non-attendance rather than refusal, signaling stalled peace talks and reducing chances of a meeting soon.
Putin proposes direct talks with Ukraine in Istanbul after European ceasefire calls
Turkey drops to 20%9%
Following European calls for a ceasefire extension, Putin suggested direct talks in Istanbul, but neither Putin nor Zelenskyy attended the scheduled meeting, with Putin sending a low-level delegation instead. This failure to hold direct talks dampened market optimism for a meeting in Turkey.
Zelenskyy publicly invites Putin to Kyiv for peace talks, refuses Moscow or Belarus
No meeting before 2027 drops to 51%8%
Zelenskyy issued a bold public invitation to Putin to meet in Kyiv, challenging him to come "if he dares," while firmly refusing to travel to Moscow or Belarus. This escalated the diplomatic standoff and diminished prospects for a meeting in Russia or Belarus, pushing market prices for Kyiv and Belarus options down.
Putin and Trump meet in Alaska, discuss Ukraine peace but no agreement reached
No meeting before 2027 rises to 63%4%
In August 2025, Putin and Trump met in Alaska and voiced interest in economic cooperation and peace talks, but no concrete agreement was reached. Putin reportedly offered to end the war if Ukraine ceded Donbas, which Zelenskyy rejected. This meeting set a diplomatic context but did not lead to direct Putin-Zelenskyy talks, influencing market expectations.
Zelenskyy publicly offers to meet Putin in Turkey for face-to-face talks
Turkey jumps to 37%8%
On May 11, 2025, Zelenskyy announced readiness to travel to Turkey for direct talks with Putin, signaling a willingness to negotiate in a neutral venue. This raised market expectations for a meeting in Turkey, reflected in initial price levels.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov signals readiness to discuss US-Russia summit preparations
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 73%14%
Lavrov stated Russia was ready to discuss preparations for a summit with the US, indicating ongoing diplomatic engagement that could influence meeting prospects between Zelenskyy and Putin. This contributed to early market movements but did not lead to a direct meeting.
Russia launches strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure amid peace talks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 62%3%
Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid coincided with trilateral peace talks, undermining trust and causing both Putin and Zelenskyy to reject in-person meeting offers. This heightened skepticism about a near-term meeting, boosting the 'No meeting before 2027' outcome.
Putin skips scheduled Istanbul meeting with Zelensky, citing logistical issues
Turkey plunges to 7%22%
Early speculation that Istanbul could host direct talks collapsed after Putin failed to attend the scheduled May 15 meeting, prompting a sharp decline in the “Turkey” outcome and a rise in “No meeting”.
Kremlin sees no grounds for Zelenskyy-Putin meeting
No meeting before 2027 surges to 75%16%
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated Moscow does not see concrete steps from Kyiv to organize a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, emphasizing territorial issues as complex and requiring expert-level work. This dampened market expectations for a meeting soon, increasing the 'No meeting before 2027' price.
Russia Rejects US Push for Zelenskyy-Putin Summit
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 59%9%
Russia rejected a push by the United States to organize a summit between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin, causing the probability of 'No meeting before 2027' to rise and other options to decline.
Kremlin insists Moscow only venue for Zelenskyy-Putin talks
Russia plunges to 1%43%
The Kremlin reiterated that it considers only Moscow as the appropriate venue for a meeting with Zelenskyy, rejecting other locations and emphasizing the need for specific agreements before a meeting, reinforcing diplomatic stalemate and lowering market confidence in a meeting outside Russia.
Zelenskyy instructs team to prepare for face-to-face meeting with Putin
Zelenskyy publicly stated his intention to discuss territorial issues directly with Putin and instructed his team to prepare for a face-to-face meeting, signaling early diplomatic efforts that influenced market optimism about a meeting occurring.
Kremlin rules out Zelensky-Putin talks outside Moscow
Russia plunges to 1%43%
The Kremlin declared that any direct talks between Zelenskyy and Putin could only occur in Moscow, rejecting alternative venues. This hardened stance diminished market confidence in meetings outside Russia, causing a sharp drop in probabilities for venues like Switzerland and the US.
Zelenskyy rejects Belarus as venue for Putin talks
Belarus plunges to 0%47%
Zelenskyy publicly ruled out meeting in Belarus, reinforcing his preference for neutral third‑countries and causing the Belarus outcome to fall from 47 % to zero by April 2026.
Zelenskyy announces trilateral talks with Russia and US in UAE
Qatar / UAE plunges to 3%46%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced that trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the United States would be held in the United Arab Emirates, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts but no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin. This announcement initially affected market expectations for a meeting in UAE/Qatar and related locations.
US, Russia and Ukraine to hold trilateral talks in UAE, Zelenskyy says
No meeting before 2027 surges to 79%20%
Zelenskyy announced trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US to be held in the UAE, signaling a diplomatic push but no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin. This news caused a sharp drop in the Qatar/UAE meeting probability and increased the likelihood of no meeting before 2027.
Ukraine pushes Turkey to mediate Zelenskyy-Putin summit talks
Turkey drops to 23%6%
Ukraine officially requested Turkey's assistance to organize a direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, aiming to break the diplomatic deadlock and accelerate peace talks. This move highlighted Turkey's role as a mediator but faced challenges due to Russia's conditions and ongoing conflict dynamics.
Market starts with moderate optimism for Zelenskyy-Putin meeting in neutral venues
At the start of the analysis window, the market showed moderate probabilities for meetings in Qatar/UAE, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, Turkey, and Belarus, reflecting ongoing diplomatic efforts and Zelenskyy's openness to talks in neutral countries.
Speculation that Kazakhstan could host Zelensky‑Putin talks
Kazakhstan plunges to 1%48%
Early‑month speculation that Kazakhstan might serve as a neutral venue for a Zelenskyy‑Putin summit appeared in Ukrainian outlets, briefly lifting the Kazakhstan probability before it collapsed to 1 % as no concrete invitation materialised.
Zelenskyy reiterates need for direct engagement with Putin
Early in the analysis window Zelenskyy’s repeated calls for a direct summit kept the market’s baseline probability of a meeting modest; the initial 59 % price for “No meeting” reflects the prevailing scepticism.
Trump pledges to push for a Zelenskyy‑Putin meeting after August 2025 Alaska summit
No meeting before 2027 surges to 75%16%
The market opened at 59 % “No meeting before 2027”. Early optimism that Trump might force a meeting after the August 2025 Alaska summit caused the price to rise to 75 % by 17 Nov 2025.
US President Trump proposes trilateral meeting with Zelenskyy and Putin
Trump expressed willingness to host a trilateral meeting and provide security guarantees to Ukraine, raising initial market interest in a US-hosted meeting. However, skepticism remained due to ongoing conflict and negotiation challenges.
US Special Envoy says Zelenskyy-Putin meeting possible within weeks
No meeting before 2027 drops to 51%8%
US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff stated that a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin could happen within three weeks, possibly including US President Trump, raising market hopes for a near-term summit and causing some price fluctuations in related outcomes.
Ukraine and Russia hold trilateral talks in Switzerland with US involvement
No meeting before 2027 rises to 63%4%
Trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US took place in Switzerland, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts but no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin. This maintained market expectations of no imminent meeting.
Zelenskyy publicly offers to meet Putin in Turkey for peace talks
On November 6, 2025, Zelenskyy announced readiness to travel to Turkey for face-to-face talks with Putin, signaling Ukraine's willingness to negotiate directly. This raised initial market hopes for a meeting in Turkey, reflected in the price movements.
Trump announces potential trilateral summit with Putin and Zelenskyy
Trump signaled interest in a three-way meeting between Russia, Ukraine, and the US, boosting hopes for direct negotiations and influencing market expectations for a meeting location.
Putin visits India amid diplomatic balancing by Ukraine and India
India plunges to 1%26%
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited India, where diplomatic efforts included discussions with Indian leaders who maintain contacts with both Russia and Ukraine. This visit raised speculation about India as a potential meeting venue for Zelenskyy and Putin, briefly supporting the India option in the market.
Kremlin insists Zelenskyy must come to Moscow for talks
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 73%14%
Russian President Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia only considers Moscow as the venue for a meeting with Zelenskyy, rejecting other locations. This hardened Russia's position on meeting conditions, reducing market confidence in meetings elsewhere.
Kremlin says no grounds for a Zelensky‑Putin meeting
No meeting before 2027 drops to 59%5%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia sees no grounds for a Zelensky‑Putin meeting, stating that Kyiv has made no concrete steps. The market interpreted this as a strong signal that a meeting was unlikely, pushing the “No meeting before 2027” probability up sharply.
Switzerland mooted as neutral venue for potential Zelenskyy‑Putin summit
Switzerland plunges to 2%49%
Early‑November reports suggested a Swiss‑hosted summit could be the neutral ground for a Zelenskyy‑Putin meeting, lifting the Switzerland odds. Subsequent diplomatic dead‑locks caused the probability to collapse to near‑zero by late January.
Renewed diplomatic push for Ukraine peace talks with US mediation
No meeting before 2027 rises to 63%4%
Following reports of a 28-point peace plan, fresh rounds of talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the US were initiated, raising hopes for progress but with skepticism about Russia's willingness to compromise. This increased market interest in a meeting but uncertainty remained.
Ukraine rules out Minsk and Russia as venues for Zelenskyy-Putin meeting
No meeting before 2027 drops to 51%8%
Ukrainian officials confirmed readiness for a meeting but ruled out Minsk and Russia as locations, limiting possible venues and affecting market prices for Russia and Belarus options.
Trump announces plans for Russia-Ukraine peace talks including possible trilateral meeting
Turkey jumps to 37%8%
Following the 2025 Russia–United States summit, Trump indicated interest in facilitating peace talks involving Putin and Zelenskyy, including a potential trilateral meeting, raising market hopes for a meeting venue like Turkey or the US.
Talks hint at possible Abu Dhabi trilateral summit
Early‑month speculation that a trilateral summit could be hosted in the Gulf (Abu Dhabi) led to a brief spike in the Qatar/UAE outcome (price at 49 % on 2025‑11‑06) before the prospect faded as other venues were discussed.
Trump and Putin meet in Alaska summit, discuss Ukraine peace prospects
The 2025 Russia–United States summit in Alaska raised hopes for peace talks, with Putin reportedly offering to end the war if Ukraine ceded Donbas, but Zelenskyy rejected territorial concessions. This event initially influenced market optimism about a meeting.
US releases 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, sparking diplomatic activity
No meeting before 2027 drops to 51%8%
The US circulated a detailed 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, initiating a diplomatic push involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US. This plan led to multiple rounds of talks but faced resistance from Russia, especially on territorial issues, limiting prospects for a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting and influencing early market price shifts away from meeting locations toward 'No meeting before 2027'.
Ukraine pushes Turkey to facilitate Zelenskyy-Putin summit talks
Turkey plunges to 8%21%
Ukraine officially requested Turkey's help to organize a direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, signaling Kyiv's readiness for high-level negotiations and willingness to consider neutral venues other than Moscow or Belarus. This raised hopes for a meeting but faced challenges due to Putin's prior refusals.
Hungary offers to host Putin-Zelenskyy peace talks amid US interest
Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó confirmed Hungary's readiness to host peace talks between Putin and Zelenskyy, supported by US President Donald Trump's administration considering Budapest as a venue. This raised market expectations for a meeting in Hungary, boosting that outcome's price.
Kremlin insists Zelenskyy must come to Moscow for talks
Russia plunges to 8%36%
Russian officials, including Dmitry Peskov, reiterated that Moscow is the only acceptable venue for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, rejecting other locations. Zelenskyy publicly refused to meet in Moscow or Belarus, sharply reducing market confidence in meetings in Russia or Belarus and increasing "No meeting before 2027" odds.
US-Russia summit in Alaska raises hopes for peace talks
The 2025 Russia–United States summit in Alaska included discussions on ending the Ukraine war, with Putin reportedly offering to end the war if Ukraine ceded Donbas, but Zelenskyy rejected concessions. This event initially raised hopes for a meeting but also highlighted deep disagreements, causing market uncertainty.
Kremlin insists Moscow only venue for Zelenskyy-Putin talks
Russia plunges to 8%36%
Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia considers only Moscow as the location for a meeting with Zelenskyy, rejecting other venues. This hardened stance contributed to market declines in the likelihood of meetings outside Russia, particularly Kyiv or Belarus.
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