Recent polls ahead of Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential election show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) leading with roughly 39–41% and 36–40% respectively, while other registered candidates such as Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado remain in the low single digits. Multiple surveys indicate neither frontrunner is near a first-round majority, making a runoff on October 25 the probable outcome between these two. Runoff simulations show the pair statistically tied within margins of error. Persistent polarization, high rejection rates for both leading figures, and voter concerns over the economy, security, and recent corruption allegations continue to shape the contest, with limited movement among trailing candidates in the final weeks before voting.