The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center's latest Day 1 Convective Outlook for September 25, 2026, indicates no organized severe thunderstorm areas and explicitly states that organized severe storms are not expected, reflecting limited buoyancy, modest mid-level lapse rates, and weak deep-layer shear across most regions. An early decaying mesoscale convective system over the Texas Panhandle and South Plains has produced outflow that suppresses stronger destabilization, while isolated convection near higher terrain in southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas may yield only marginal hail potential under 500–1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Tornado probabilities remain negligible given the thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Updated SPC outlooks and National Hurricane Center or local NWS briefings through the evening will provide any late adjustments before resolution.