**Ongoing political deadlock after the May 2026 no-confidence vote that ended the PSD-PNL-UDMR coalition government has fragmented trader probabilities across dozens of coalition outcomes.** Negotiations between PSD and the PNL-USR-UDMR bloc remain stalled over prime minister selection, rotation agreements, and parliamentary support, with Siegfried Mureșan’s recent designation for a minority center-right cabinet facing explicit rejection from both PSD and AUR. This leaves roughly 170 reliable votes short of the 233 needed, while PSD explores limited options and far-right parties gain leverage. The wide distribution—led by variants including PSD + PNL + UDMR or standalone PSD—reflects uncertainty over whether pro-European parties can secure cross-bloc deals, whether early elections loom, or whether a narrower minority arrangement can pass amid economic pressures like the budget deficit and EU funds. Historical precedent of broad centrist coalitions supports the modest edge for inclusive formulas, yet persistent distrust sustains the spread.