Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 72.4% implied probability for the best AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's sustained dominance on LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard and coding benchmarks like SWE-bench (52%+ scores) following its April 2026 launch, outpacing rivals in agentic tasks and long-context reasoning. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, updated in March-April, holds 17% with strengths in multimodal capabilities but trails by 20-50 Elo points overall. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 excels in math (e.g., AIME 100%) yet lags in holistic evaluations at 8%. No confirmed frontier releases from competitors before deadline solidify Anthropic's edge, though surprise announcements or benchmark shifts could alter dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 72.4%
Google 17%
OpenAI 8%
xAI 1.8%
$5,761,603 Vol.
$5,761,603 Vol.

Anthropic
72%

17%

OpenAI
8%

xAI
2%

Meta
1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Microsoft
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 72.4%
Google 17%
OpenAI 8%
xAI 1.8%
$5,761,603 Vol.
$5,761,603 Vol.

Anthropic
72%

17%

OpenAI
8%

xAI
2%

Meta
1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Microsoft
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Baidu
<1%
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 72.4% implied probability for the best AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's sustained dominance on LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard and coding benchmarks like SWE-bench (52%+ scores) following its April 2026 launch, outpacing rivals in agentic tasks and long-context reasoning. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, updated in March-April, holds 17% with strengths in multimodal capabilities but trails by 20-50 Elo points overall. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 excels in math (e.g., AIME 100%) yet lags in holistic evaluations at 8%. No confirmed frontier releases from competitors before deadline solidify Anthropic's edge, though surprise announcements or benchmark shifts could alter dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions