**Trader consensus heavily favors "None in 2026" at 78.5% implied probability because frontier large language models remain clustered well below the 1550 Elo threshold on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard.** As of late September 2026, the highest scores sit around 1506 for Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5, with strong Anthropic variants (Opus 4.6/4.7) and close competitors from Google (Gemini 3.1 Pro) and Meta (Muse Spark) in the 1490–1500 range. Incremental gains of 10–20 Elo points over recent months have not accelerated enough to close the roughly 45-point gap before year-end. Anthropic’s 11.5% market-implied odds reflect its consistent leaderboard leadership and recent model iterations, while OpenAI (4.7%), Google (1.6%), and others trail due to slightly lower peak scores and less frequent frontier updates. Key upcoming catalysts include potential Q4 releases or major updates from the leading labs, though historical release cycles and the current tight clustering of capabilities suggest limited probability of a rapid jump to 1550 this year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNone in 2026 78%
Anthropic 11%
OpenAI 4.3%
Google 1.8%
$126,226 Vol.
$126,226 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
81%
Anthropic
11%
OpenAI
4%
2%
xAI
1%
Alibaba
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
None in 2026 78%
Anthropic 11%
OpenAI 4.3%
Google 1.8%
$126,226 Vol.
$126,226 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
$26,251 Vol.
81%
Anthropic
$18,694 Vol.
11%
OpenAI
$15,322 Vol.
4%
$12,081 Vol.
2%
xAI
$9,668 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$11,378 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$13,542 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$9,817 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$9,474 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.**Trader consensus heavily favors "None in 2026" at 78.5% implied probability because frontier large language models remain clustered well below the 1550 Elo threshold on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard.** As of late September 2026, the highest scores sit around 1506 for Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5, with strong Anthropic variants (Opus 4.6/4.7) and close competitors from Google (Gemini 3.1 Pro) and Meta (Muse Spark) in the 1490–1500 range. Incremental gains of 10–20 Elo points over recent months have not accelerated enough to close the roughly 45-point gap before year-end.
Anthropic’s 11.5% market-implied odds reflect its consistent leaderboard leadership and recent model iterations, while OpenAI (4.7%), Google (1.6%), and others trail due to slightly lower peak scores and less frequent frontier updates. Key upcoming catalysts include potential Q4 releases or major updates from the leading labs, though historical release cycles and the current tight clustering of capabilities suggest limited probability of a rapid jump to 1550 this year.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Market Opened: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Volume
$126,226End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.**Trader consensus heavily favors "None in 2026" at 78.5% implied probability because frontier large language models remain clustered well below the 1550 Elo threshold on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard.** As of late September 2026, the highest scores sit around 1506 for Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5, with strong Anthropic variants (Opus 4.6/4.7) and close competitors from Google (Gemini 3.1 Pro) and Meta (Muse Spark) in the 1490–1500 range. Incremental gains of 10–20 Elo points over recent months have not accelerated enough to close the roughly 45-point gap before year-end.
Anthropic’s 11.5% market-implied odds reflect its consistent leaderboard leadership and recent model iterations, while OpenAI (4.7%), Google (1.6%), and others trail due to slightly lower peak scores and less frequent frontier updates. Key upcoming catalysts include potential Q4 releases or major updates from the leading labs, though historical release cycles and the current tight clustering of capabilities suggest limited probability of a rapid jump to 1550 this year.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volume
$126,226End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus heavily favors "None in 2026" at 78.5% implied probability because frontier large language models remain clustered well below the 1550 Elo threshold on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard.** As of late September 2026, the highest scores sit around 1506 for Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5, with strong Anthropic variants (Opus 4.6/4.7) and close competitors from Google (Gemini 3.1 Pro) and Meta (Muse Spark) in the 1490–1500 range. Incremental gains of 10–20 Elo points over recent months have not accelerated enough to close the roughly 45-point gap before year-end. Anthropic’s 11.5% market-implied odds reflect its consistent leaderboard leadership and recent model iterations, while OpenAI (4.7%), Google (1.6%), and others trail due to slightly lower peak scores and less frequent frontier updates. Key upcoming catalysts include potential Q4 releases or major updates from the leading labs, though historical release cycles and the current tight clustering of capabilities suggest limited probability of a rapid jump to 1550 this year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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