Recent releases from leading labs, including Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 series and OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 variants, have pushed top Chatbot Arena Elo scores into the 1500–1510 range as of mid-May 2026, yet none have sustained the 1550 threshold required for market resolution. Traders assign the highest implied probability to no model reaching that level this year because gains remain incremental amid maturing scaling dynamics and intense competition across frontier labs. Anthropic’s edge in agentic coding and reasoning benchmarks supports its 33.5% share, while Google’s consistent multimodal updates keep it in contention at 11%. OpenAI and xAI trail due to narrower leads on key human-preference metrics. Key catalysts ahead include potential mid-year model refreshes and developer conference announcements that could accelerate or stall further progress.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNone in 2026 57%
Anthropic 33%
Google 11%
OpenAI 2.8%
$54,452 Vol.
$54,452 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
57%
Anthropic
33%
11%
OpenAI
3%
xAI
2%
Alibaba
1%
Mistral
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
None in 2026 57%
Anthropic 33%
Google 11%
OpenAI 2.8%
$54,452 Vol.
$54,452 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
$10,084 Vol.
57%
Anthropic
$6,982 Vol.
33%
$7,388 Vol.
11%
OpenAI
$7,444 Vol.
3%
xAI
$5,414 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$4,750 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$3,688 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$4,795 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$3,908 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Recent releases from leading labs, including Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 series and OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 variants, have pushed top Chatbot Arena Elo scores into the 1500–1510 range as of mid-May 2026, yet none have sustained the 1550 threshold required for market resolution. Traders assign the highest implied probability to no model reaching that level this year because gains remain incremental amid maturing scaling dynamics and intense competition across frontier labs. Anthropic’s edge in agentic coding and reasoning benchmarks supports its 33.5% share, while Google’s consistent multimodal updates keep it in contention at 11%. OpenAI and xAI trail due to narrower leads on key human-preference metrics. Key catalysts ahead include potential mid-year model refreshes and developer conference announcements that could accelerate or stall further progress.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Market Opened: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Volume
$54,452End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Recent releases from leading labs, including Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 series and OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 variants, have pushed top Chatbot Arena Elo scores into the 1500–1510 range as of mid-May 2026, yet none have sustained the 1550 threshold required for market resolution. Traders assign the highest implied probability to no model reaching that level this year because gains remain incremental amid maturing scaling dynamics and intense competition across frontier labs. Anthropic’s edge in agentic coding and reasoning benchmarks supports its 33.5% share, while Google’s consistent multimodal updates keep it in contention at 11%. OpenAI and xAI trail due to narrower leads on key human-preference metrics. Key catalysts ahead include potential mid-year model refreshes and developer conference announcements that could accelerate or stall further progress.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volume
$54,452End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent releases from leading labs, including Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 series and OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 variants, have pushed top Chatbot Arena Elo scores into the 1500–1510 range as of mid-May 2026, yet none have sustained the 1550 threshold required for market resolution. Traders assign the highest implied probability to no model reaching that level this year because gains remain incremental amid maturing scaling dynamics and intense competition across frontier labs. Anthropic’s edge in agentic coding and reasoning benchmarks supports its 33.5% share, while Google’s consistent multimodal updates keep it in contention at 11%. OpenAI and xAI trail due to narrower leads on key human-preference metrics. Key catalysts ahead include potential mid-year model refreshes and developer conference announcements that could accelerate or stall further progress.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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