Avengers: Doomsday leads trader consensus with 57% implied probability due to its record-shattering presales exceeding $50 million months ahead of its December 18 release, fueled by Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, Russo brothers direction, and multiverse-scale hype that outpaces even Deadpool & Wolverine benchmarks. Spider-Man: Brand New Day trails at 40.5% on the strength of its actual $360 million domestic opening earlier in 2026, the second-largest ever, though its momentum has cooled post-release. The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping and Dune: Messiah register negligible odds given later November and December dates plus more modest tracking. Key catalysts ahead include final presale updates and any late marketing shifts before the holiday frame.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich movie has biggest opening week in 2026?
Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?
Avengers: Doomsday 57%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 41%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1%
Dune: Messiah <1%
$200,947 Vol.
$200,947 Vol.
Jan 31, 2027
Avengers: Doomsday
57%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
41%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
<1%
Dune: Messiah
<1%
Avengers: Doomsday 57%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 41%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1%
Dune: Messiah <1%
$200,947 Vol.
$200,947 Vol.
Jan 31, 2027
Avengers: Doomsday
$91,113 Vol.
57%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$76,898 Vol.
41%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$3,404 Vol.
<1%
Dune: Messiah
$3,728 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Avengers: Doomsday leads trader consensus with 57% implied probability due to its record-shattering presales exceeding $50 million months ahead of its December 18 release, fueled by Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, Russo brothers direction, and multiverse-scale hype that outpaces even Deadpool & Wolverine benchmarks. Spider-Man: Brand New Day trails at 40.5% on the strength of its actual $360 million domestic opening earlier in 2026, the second-largest ever, though its momentum has cooled post-release. The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping and Dune: Messiah register negligible odds given later November and December dates plus more modest tracking. Key catalysts ahead include final presale updates and any late marketing shifts before the holiday frame.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Volume
$200,947End Date
Feb 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Avengers: Doomsday leads trader consensus with 57% implied probability due to its record-shattering presales exceeding $50 million months ahead of its December 18 release, fueled by Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, Russo brothers direction, and multiverse-scale hype that outpaces even Deadpool & Wolverine benchmarks. Spider-Man: Brand New Day trails at 40.5% on the strength of its actual $360 million domestic opening earlier in 2026, the second-largest ever, though its momentum has cooled post-release. The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping and Dune: Messiah register negligible odds given later November and December dates plus more modest tracking. Key catalysts ahead include final presale updates and any late marketing shifts before the holiday frame.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$200,947End Date
Feb 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Avengers: Doomsday leads trader consensus with 57% implied probability due to its record-shattering presales exceeding $50 million months ahead of its December 18 release, fueled by Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, Russo brothers direction, and multiverse-scale hype that outpaces even Deadpool & Wolverine benchmarks. Spider-Man: Brand New Day trails at 40.5% on the strength of its actual $360 million domestic opening earlier in 2026, the second-largest ever, though its momentum has cooled post-release. The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping and Dune: Messiah register negligible odds given later November and December dates plus more modest tracking. Key catalysts ahead include final presale updates and any late marketing shifts before the holiday frame.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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