The 2026 New Zealand general election on 7 November will determine the next government under the MMP system, with 62 seats needed for a majority in the 120-122 seat Parliament. Recent polling averages show National and Labour nearly tied near 29-30 percent, while ACT, NZ First, Greens, and the Opportunities Party each poll in the 6-12 percent range, leaving both the incumbent National-ACT-NZ First coalition and a potential Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori bloc short of a majority without additional support. National has ruled out working with the Opportunities Party, which recent surveys project could clear the 5 percent threshold and act as a potential kingmaker. Volatility in late-campaign polls, combined with low combined support for the two largest parties, keeps multiple coalition scenarios in play ahead of advance voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Jan 31, 2028
Green Party
76%
Labour Party
54%
National Party
53%
ACT New Zealand
67%
Te Pāti Māori
27%
New Zealand First Party
61%
$1,995 Vol.
Green Party
$112 Vol.
76%
Labour Party
$599 Vol.
54%
National Party
$822 Vol.
53%
ACT New Zealand
$30 Vol.
67%
Te Pāti Māori
$325 Vol.
27%
New Zealand First Party
$107 Vol.
61%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.The 2026 New Zealand general election on 7 November will determine the next government under the MMP system, with 62 seats needed for a majority in the 120-122 seat Parliament. Recent polling averages show National and Labour nearly tied near 29-30 percent, while ACT, NZ First, Greens, and the Opportunities Party each poll in the 6-12 percent range, leaving both the incumbent National-ACT-NZ First coalition and a potential Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori bloc short of a majority without additional support. National has ruled out working with the Opportunities Party, which recent surveys project could clear the 5 percent threshold and act as a potential kingmaker. Volatility in late-campaign polls, combined with low combined support for the two largest parties, keeps multiple coalition scenarios in play ahead of advance voting.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
Volume
$1,995End Date
Feb 1, 2028Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.The 2026 New Zealand general election on 7 November will determine the next government under the MMP system, with 62 seats needed for a majority in the 120-122 seat Parliament. Recent polling averages show National and Labour nearly tied near 29-30 percent, while ACT, NZ First, Greens, and the Opportunities Party each poll in the 6-12 percent range, leaving both the incumbent National-ACT-NZ First coalition and a potential Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori bloc short of a majority without additional support. National has ruled out working with the Opportunities Party, which recent surveys project could clear the 5 percent threshold and act as a potential kingmaker. Volatility in late-campaign polls, combined with low combined support for the two largest parties, keeps multiple coalition scenarios in play ahead of advance voting.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.
Volume
$1,995End Date
Feb 1, 2028Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 New Zealand general election on 7 November will determine the next government under the MMP system, with 62 seats needed for a majority in the 120-122 seat Parliament. Recent polling averages show National and Labour nearly tied near 29-30 percent, while ACT, NZ First, Greens, and the Opportunities Party each poll in the 6-12 percent range, leaving both the incumbent National-ACT-NZ First coalition and a potential Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori bloc short of a majority without additional support. National has ruled out working with the Opportunities Party, which recent surveys project could clear the 5 percent threshold and act as a potential kingmaker. Volatility in late-campaign polls, combined with low combined support for the two largest parties, keeps multiple coalition scenarios in play ahead of advance voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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