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Sports·UFC

Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?

icon for Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?
Sports·UFC

Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?

Islam Makhachev 64%

Ian Machado Garry 26.8%

Michael Morales 4.9%

Belal Muhammad 4.9%

Polymarket

$611,427 Vol.

Islam Makhachev 64%

Ian Machado Garry 26.8%

Michael Morales 4.9%

Belal Muhammad 4.9%

Polymarket

$611,427 Vol.

Islam Makhachev

$6,266 Vol.

64%

Ian Machado Garry

$3,029 Vol.

27%

Michael Morales

$4,726 Vol.

5%

Belal Muhammad

$1,472 Vol.

5%

Carlos Prates

$1,730 Vol.

5%

Kamaru Usman

$365,813 Vol.

1%

Shavkat Rakhmonov

$201,707 Vol.

1%

Jack Della Maddalena

$1,982 Vol.

1%

Leon Edwards

$1,298 Vol.

1%

Joaquin Buckley

$21,382 Vol.

1%

Gabriel Bonfim

$542 Vol.

1%

Sean Brady

$1,481 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Islam Makhachev holds the welterweight title after capturing it in late 2025 via dominant unanimous decision over Jack Della Maddalena, following his move up from lightweight, which has anchored his 73% implied probability to remain champion through 2026. Recent rankings place Ian Machado Garry as the clear top contender after statement wins including a first-round finish of Belal Muhammad, positioning him for a likely August title shot and supporting his 24.5% share. Michael Morales and Carlos Prates sit immediately behind with strong late-2025 victories that elevated their profiles, while the rest of the division’s depth—featuring Shavkat Rakhmonov, Sean Brady, and others—reflects thinner odds amid Makhachev’s established grappling edge and activity. Trader pricing aligns with official rankings and confirmed matchmaking rather than speculation on long-term outcomes.

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Volume
$611,427
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Islam Makhachev holds the welterweight title after capturing it in late 2025 via dominant unanimous decision over Jack Della Maddalena, following his move up from lightweight, which has anchored his 73% implied probability to remain champion through 2026. Recent rankings place Ian Machado Garry as the clear top contender after statement wins including a first-round finish of Belal Muhammad, positioning him for a likely August title shot and supporting his 24.5% share. Michael Morales and Carlos Prates sit immediately behind with strong late-2025 victories that elevated their profiles, while the rest of the division’s depth—featuring Shavkat Rakhmonov, Sean Brady, and others—reflects thinner odds amid Makhachev’s established grappling edge and activity. Trader pricing aligns with official rankings and confirmed matchmaking rather than speculation on long-term outcomes.

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Volume
$611,427
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Islam Makhachev" at 64%, followed by "Ian Machado Garry" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 64¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" has generated $611.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" is "Islam Makhachev" at 64%, meaning the market assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ian Machado Garry" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.