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Sports·UFC

Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?

icon for Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?
Sports·UFC

Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?

Islam Makhachev 70%

Carlos Prates 18.6%

Michael Morales 12.4%

Ian Machado Garry 12%

Polymarket

$38,322 Vol.

Islam Makhachev 70%

Carlos Prates 18.6%

Michael Morales 12.4%

Ian Machado Garry 12%

Polymarket

$38,322 Vol.

Islam Makhachev

$5,415 Vol.

70%

Carlos Prates

$911 Vol.

15%

Michael Morales

$1,144 Vol.

12%

Ian Machado Garry

$1,903 Vol.

12%

Shavkat Rakhmonov

$2,791 Vol.

1%

Kamaru Usman

$1,015 Vol.

1%

Leon Edwards

$891 Vol.

1%

Belal Muhammad

$713 Vol.

1%

Sean Brady

$1,029 Vol.

<1%

Joaquin Buckley

$21,039 Vol.

<1%

Jack Della Maddalena

$1,471 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Islam Makhachev's reign as UFC welterweight champion, solidified by his dominant 2025 conquest of Jack Della Maddalena for the vacant title, anchors trader consensus at 70% implied probability for year-end retention, bolstered by his P4P top ranking, minimal weight cut demands, and announced camp for a first defense potentially against #1 contender Ian Machado Garry in August. Recent UFC Perth main event on May 2 saw Carlos Prates deliver a third-round TKO over Della Maddalena, vaulting him to #2 in rankings and 12.5% odds amid momentum. Undefeated 19-0 prospect Michael Morales sits third-ranked at 12.8%, while Garry's top spot yields 11.5%, reflecting the crowded contender path in a stacked division.

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Volume
$38,322
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Islam Makhachev's reign as UFC welterweight champion, solidified by his dominant 2025 conquest of Jack Della Maddalena for the vacant title, anchors trader consensus at 70% implied probability for year-end retention, bolstered by his P4P top ranking, minimal weight cut demands, and announced camp for a first defense potentially against #1 contender Ian Machado Garry in August. Recent UFC Perth main event on May 2 saw Carlos Prates deliver a third-round TKO over Della Maddalena, vaulting him to #2 in rankings and 12.5% odds amid momentum. Undefeated 19-0 prospect Michael Morales sits third-ranked at 12.8%, while Garry's top spot yields 11.5%, reflecting the crowded contender path in a stacked division.

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Volume
$38,322
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Islam Makhachev" at 70%, followed by "Carlos Prates" at 15%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 70¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" has generated $38.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" is "Islam Makhachev" at 70%, meaning the market assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Carlos Prates" at 15%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.