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Politics·Trump

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

icon for Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
Politics·Trump

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

$1,409,892 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$1,409,892 Vol.

Polymarket

Dan Scavino

$137 Vol.

30%

Lee Zeldin

$32,279 Vol.

27%

Pete Hegseth

$128,262 Vol.

26%

Howard Lutnick

$94,861 Vol.

23%

Susie Wiles

$56,667 Vol.

20%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$91,347 Vol.

19%

Kash Patel

$306,169 Vol.

18%

David Sacks

$9,216 Vol.

18%

Kristi Noem

$98,126 Vol.

15%

Markwayne Mullin

$2,633 Vol.

22%

John Ratcliffe

$572 Vol.

12%

Russell Vought

$284 Vol.

16%

Tom Homan

$253 Vol.

19%

Marco Rubio

$20,390 Vol.

7%

Stephen Miller

$4,151 Vol.

7%

Scott Bessent

$9,208 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trump’s second-term administration has recorded unprecedented political appointee turnover, with nearly 1,000 non-Senate-confirmed officials departing in the first 18 months—more than double prior administrations at the same point—and 27 Senate-confirmed Cabinet department officials exiting by mid-2026. Multiple Cabinet secretaries left between March and June 2026 through firings and resignations tied to policy friction, agency investigations, and personal circumstances, while the White House saw eight senior aides depart over the summer, including the press secretary and legislative affairs director. Agencies such as Homeland Security, Justice, Commerce, and Labor experienced the steepest losses. This accelerated churn, concentrated before the 2026 midterms, reflects ongoing pressures from executive priorities, staffing shortages, and the typical second-year pattern of officials weighing private-sector roles or burnout.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$1,409,892
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trump’s second-term administration has recorded unprecedented political appointee turnover, with nearly 1,000 non-Senate-confirmed officials departing in the first 18 months—more than double prior administrations at the same point—and 27 Senate-confirmed Cabinet department officials exiting by mid-2026. Multiple Cabinet secretaries left between March and June 2026 through firings and resignations tied to policy friction, agency investigations, and personal circumstances, while the White House saw eight senior aides depart over the summer, including the press secretary and legislative affairs director. Agencies such as Homeland Security, Justice, Commerce, and Labor experienced the steepest losses. This accelerated churn, concentrated before the 2026 midterms, reflects ongoing pressures from executive priorities, staffing shortages, and the typical second-year pattern of officials weighing private-sector roles or burnout.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$1,409,892
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Karoline Leavitt" at 100%, followed by "Tulsi Gabbard" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?" has generated $1.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?" is "Karoline Leavitt" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Tulsi Gabbard" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.