Anthropic's active preparation for a late-2026 debut drives the 96.5% market-implied odds it will list before OpenAI. The company has confidentially filed its S-1, released a detailed prospectus projecting massive revenue growth toward $100–110 billion annualized run-rate, and is targeting marketing as soon as mid-November with a potential close before year-end at a $2 trillion valuation. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has repeatedly stated the firm will not pursue an IPO in 2026, citing the need to address AI safety and alignment risks before scaling further, and is instead pursuing a private bridge round of around $30 billion. While Anthropic faces typical execution risks such as SEC review delays or market volatility, OpenAI's explicit timeline shift creates a wide gap unlikely to close without a major reversal in safety priorities.