President Javier Milei’s administration has shifted from campaign pledges of full dollarization and central bank abolition toward a managed crawling exchange rate band system implemented in January 2026, with bands widening monthly based on recent inflation to support reserve accumulation and debt servicing. Public statements indicate limited citizen support for replacing the peso, reducing near-term political momentum despite ongoing fiscal reforms and projected GDP growth. Dollarization would require substantial foreign reserves, congressional approval, and broad institutional backing that remain absent through mid-2026. Traders therefore assign low implied probabilities to completion by late 2026, viewing the current stabilization approach as the dominant path absent major legislative or economic shifts before Milei’s term advances.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$41,216 Vol.

December 31, 2026
4%
$41,216 Vol.

December 31, 2026
4%
An announcement that dollarization will begin will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" - for this market to resolve to "Yes", dollarization must have actually begun.
Note: a peg does not need to be 1:1 to USD.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting indicating either of the listed scenarios have begun.
Market Opened: Jun 28, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...An announcement that dollarization will begin will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" - for this market to resolve to "Yes", dollarization must have actually begun.
Note: a peg does not need to be 1:1 to USD.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting indicating either of the listed scenarios have begun.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...President Javier Milei’s administration has shifted from campaign pledges of full dollarization and central bank abolition toward a managed crawling exchange rate band system implemented in January 2026, with bands widening monthly based on recent inflation to support reserve accumulation and debt servicing. Public statements indicate limited citizen support for replacing the peso, reducing near-term political momentum despite ongoing fiscal reforms and projected GDP growth. Dollarization would require substantial foreign reserves, congressional approval, and broad institutional backing that remain absent through mid-2026. Traders therefore assign low implied probabilities to completion by late 2026, viewing the current stabilization approach as the dominant path absent major legislative or economic shifts before Milei’s term advances.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated

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