Banksy’s established pattern of multiple authenticated street interventions annually, including confirmed London murals in December 2025 and a April 2026 statue installation, underpins the 72% market-implied odds for at least one new outdoor mural or artwork by year-end. Traders point to his event-driven releases often timed around holidays, political moments, or London appearances, with roughly three months remaining offering ample runway despite the current five-month gap since the last verified piece. Official Instagram confirmations serve as the reliable resolution trigger, while the artist’s unpredictable but productive rhythm and ongoing cultural relevance sustain trader consensus for further output before December 31.