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icon for Получит ли Илон Маск полную опеку над ребенком из Сент-Клера?

Получит ли Илон Маск полную опеку над ребенком из Сент-Клера?

icon for Получит ли Илон Маск полную опеку над ребенком из Сент-Клера?

Получит ли Илон Маск полную опеку над ребенком из Сент-Клера?

Да

5% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ

Да

5% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
On January 12, Elon Musk announced he would be filing for full custody of the child he shares with Ashley St. Clair. (see: https://www.eonline.com/news/1427282/elon-musk-filing-for-full-custody-of-son-with-ashley-st-clair) This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded sole legal custody, or primary residential/physical custody of his son Romulus in the form of a final order by any U.S. court by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary custody orders or interim arrangements will not qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution unless they become final orders by the stated market deadline. This market will resolve immediately to "No" if all relevant court proceedings permanently cease, or are dropped by either party. This market will resolve based on announcements from Elon Musk, Ashley St. Clair, their official legal or social media representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting.**Strong trader consensus against Elon Musk securing full custody of his son with Ashley St. Clair reflects the realities of contested family law proceedings.** Musk publicly stated in January 2026 his intent to file for sole custody after St. Clair reversed course on transgender issues involving minors, but five months later the matter remains unresolved in public records with no reported court ruling favoring him. St. Clair has served as the primary caregiver since the child's 2024 birth, while Musk balances extensive professional commitments across multiple households. Ongoing disputes over child support and paternity acknowledgment further complicate any swift legal shift. Although celebrity custody cases can pivot on new evidence of parental fitness, historical patterns and the high bar for removing a child from an established home environment sustain the 93.9% implied probability for "No."

On January 12, Elon Musk announced he would be filing for full custody of the child he shares with Ashley St. Clair. (see: https://www.eonline.com/news/1427282/elon-musk-filing-for-full-custody-of-son-with-ashley-st-clair)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded sole legal custody, or primary residential/physical custody of his son Romulus in the form of a final order by any U.S. court by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary custody orders or interim arrangements will not qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution unless they become final orders by the stated market deadline.

This market will resolve immediately to "No" if all relevant court proceedings permanently cease, or are dropped by either party.

This market will resolve based on announcements from Elon Musk, Ashley St. Clair, their official legal or social media representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$9,067
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jan 14, 2026, 11:02 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
On January 12, Elon Musk announced he would be filing for full custody of the child he shares with Ashley St. Clair. (see: https://www.eonline.com/news/1427282/elon-musk-filing-for-full-custody-of-son-with-ashley-st-clair) This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded sole legal custody, or primary residential/physical custody of his son Romulus in the form of a final order by any U.S. court by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary custody orders or interim arrangements will not qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution unless they become final orders by the stated market deadline. This market will resolve immediately to "No" if all relevant court proceedings permanently cease, or are dropped by either party. This market will resolve based on announcements from Elon Musk, Ashley St. Clair, their official legal or social media representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting.
On January 12, Elon Musk announced he would be filing for full custody of the child he shares with Ashley St. Clair. (see: https://www.eonline.com/news/1427282/elon-musk-filing-for-full-custody-of-son-with-ashley-st-clair) This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded sole legal custody, or primary residential/physical custody of his son Romulus in the form of a final order by any U.S. court by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary custody orders or interim arrangements will not qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution unless they become final orders by the stated market deadline. This market will resolve immediately to "No" if all relevant court proceedings permanently cease, or are dropped by either party. This market will resolve based on announcements from Elon Musk, Ashley St. Clair, their official legal or social media representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting.**Strong trader consensus against Elon Musk securing full custody of his son with Ashley St. Clair reflects the realities of contested family law proceedings.** Musk publicly stated in January 2026 his intent to file for sole custody after St. Clair reversed course on transgender issues involving minors, but five months later the matter remains unresolved in public records with no reported court ruling favoring him. St. Clair has served as the primary caregiver since the child's 2024 birth, while Musk balances extensive professional commitments across multiple households. Ongoing disputes over child support and paternity acknowledgment further complicate any swift legal shift. Although celebrity custody cases can pivot on new evidence of parental fitness, historical patterns and the high bar for removing a child from an established home environment sustain the 93.9% implied probability for "No."

On January 12, Elon Musk announced he would be filing for full custody of the child he shares with Ashley St. Clair. (see: https://www.eonline.com/news/1427282/elon-musk-filing-for-full-custody-of-son-with-ashley-st-clair)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded sole legal custody, or primary residential/physical custody of his son Romulus in the form of a final order by any U.S. court by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary custody orders or interim arrangements will not qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution unless they become final orders by the stated market deadline.

This market will resolve immediately to "No" if all relevant court proceedings permanently cease, or are dropped by either party.

This market will resolve based on announcements from Elon Musk, Ashley St. Clair, their official legal or social media representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$9,067
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jan 14, 2026, 11:02 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
On January 12, Elon Musk announced he would be filing for full custody of the child he shares with Ashley St. Clair. (see: https://www.eonline.com/news/1427282/elon-musk-filing-for-full-custody-of-son-with-ashley-st-clair) This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded sole legal custody, or primary residential/physical custody of his son Romulus in the form of a final order by any U.S. court by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary custody orders or interim arrangements will not qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution unless they become final orders by the stated market deadline. This market will resolve immediately to "No" if all relevant court proceedings permanently cease, or are dropped by either party. This market will resolve based on announcements from Elon Musk, Ashley St. Clair, their official legal or social media representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting.

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