Tyler Robinson faces aggravated murder charges in the September 2025 fatal shooting of Charlie Kirk at Utah Valley University, with prosecutors presenting DNA evidence, surveillance footage, witness statements, and reported confessions during a July 2026 preliminary hearing. Defense counsel has challenged key elements including DNA reliability and the basis for seeking the death penalty, prompting the judge to request additional briefs before ruling on probable cause for trial, with arguments set for early September. These procedural steps, combined with the high bar for conviction in a capital case and potential plea negotiations or evidentiary rulings, underpin traders' slight lean toward no conviction despite the volume of evidence introduced. Upcoming court decisions on bindover and trial eligibility remain the primary near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
44% вероятность
$282,135 Объем
$282,135 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
44% вероятность
$282,135 Объем
$282,135 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Tyler Robinson has been charged with Aggravated Murder by The State of Utah for the death of Charlie Kirk. You can read more about that here: https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON (OTN: 70090584) by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
If this specific charge is dropped, or otherwise changed such that it is no longer considered a criminal homicide offense (https://le.utah.gov/xcode/Title76/Chapter5/76-5-S201.html), this market will immediately resolve to "No".
If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open until the resolution date (July 31) to consider further retrials. If a homicide conviction has not been rendered by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.Tyler Robinson faces aggravated murder charges in the September 2025 fatal shooting of Charlie Kirk at Utah Valley University, with prosecutors presenting DNA evidence, surveillance footage, witness statements, and reported confessions during a July 2026 preliminary hearing. Defense counsel has challenged key elements including DNA reliability and the basis for seeking the death penalty, prompting the judge to request additional briefs before ruling on probable cause for trial, with arguments set for early September. These procedural steps, combined with the high bar for conviction in a capital case and potential plea negotiations or evidentiary rulings, underpin traders' slight lean toward no conviction despite the volume of evidence introduced. Upcoming court decisions on bindover and trial eligibility remain the primary near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities.
Tyler Robinson has been charged with Aggravated Murder by The State of Utah for the death of Charlie Kirk. You can read more about that here: https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON (OTN: 70090584) by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
If this specific charge is dropped, or otherwise changed such that it is no longer considered a criminal homicide offense (https://le.utah.gov/xcode/Title76/Chapter5/76-5-S201.html), this market will immediately resolve to "No".
If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open until the resolution date (July 31) to consider further retrials. If a homicide conviction has not been rendered by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON (OTN: 70090584) by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
If this specific charge is dropped, or otherwise changed such that it is no longer considered a criminal homicide offense (https://le.utah.gov/xcode/Title76/Chapter5/76-5-S201.html), this market will immediately resolve to "No".
If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open until the resolution date (July 31) to consider further retrials. If a homicide conviction has not been rendered by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.
Открытие рынка: Jun 16, 2026, 8:27 PM ET
Объем
$282,135Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 16, 2026, 8:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tyler Robinson has been charged with Aggravated Murder by The State of Utah for the death of Charlie Kirk. You can read more about that here: https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON (OTN: 70090584) by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
If this specific charge is dropped, or otherwise changed such that it is no longer considered a criminal homicide offense (https://le.utah.gov/xcode/Title76/Chapter5/76-5-S201.html), this market will immediately resolve to "No".
If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open until the resolution date (July 31) to consider further retrials. If a homicide conviction has not been rendered by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.Tyler Robinson faces aggravated murder charges in the September 2025 fatal shooting of Charlie Kirk at Utah Valley University, with prosecutors presenting DNA evidence, surveillance footage, witness statements, and reported confessions during a July 2026 preliminary hearing. Defense counsel has challenged key elements including DNA reliability and the basis for seeking the death penalty, prompting the judge to request additional briefs before ruling on probable cause for trial, with arguments set for early September. These procedural steps, combined with the high bar for conviction in a capital case and potential plea negotiations or evidentiary rulings, underpin traders' slight lean toward no conviction despite the volume of evidence introduced. Upcoming court decisions on bindover and trial eligibility remain the primary near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities.
Tyler Robinson has been charged with Aggravated Murder by The State of Utah for the death of Charlie Kirk. You can read more about that here: https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON (OTN: 70090584) by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
If this specific charge is dropped, or otherwise changed such that it is no longer considered a criminal homicide offense (https://le.utah.gov/xcode/Title76/Chapter5/76-5-S201.html), this market will immediately resolve to "No".
If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open until the resolution date (July 31) to consider further retrials. If a homicide conviction has not been rendered by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON (OTN: 70090584) by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
If this specific charge is dropped, or otherwise changed such that it is no longer considered a criminal homicide offense (https://le.utah.gov/xcode/Title76/Chapter5/76-5-S201.html), this market will immediately resolve to "No".
If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open until the resolution date (July 31) to consider further retrials. If a homicide conviction has not been rendered by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.
Объем
$282,135Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 16, 2026, 8:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tyler Robinson faces aggravated murder charges in the September 2025 fatal shooting of Charlie Kirk at Utah Valley University, with prosecutors presenting DNA evidence, surveillance footage, witness statements, and reported confessions during a July 2026 preliminary hearing. Defense counsel has challenged key elements including DNA reliability and the basis for seeking the death penalty, prompting the judge to request additional briefs before ruling on probable cause for trial, with arguments set for early September. These procedural steps, combined with the high bar for conviction in a capital case and potential plea negotiations or evidentiary rulings, underpin traders' slight lean toward no conviction despite the volume of evidence introduced. Upcoming court decisions on bindover and trial eligibility remain the primary near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы