US regular gasoline prices currently average $4.48 per gallon nationally, supported by crude oil benchmarks near $83 WTI and $88 Brent amid ongoing geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and related supply uncertainties. Elevated refinery margins, seasonal demand patterns, and reduced inventories have sustained pump prices at multi-year highs for September, with the national average up sharply from levels a year earlier. Trader sentiment on near-term thresholds reflects these fundamentals, as any daily reading at or above a given level through September 30 would determine resolution, leaving minimal scope for reversal before the deadline. Market-implied odds incorporate the latest AAA data releases and crude futures movements, though shoulder-season weather and potential diplomatic developments could still influence final daily averages.