**The global art market’s 2025 total of $59.6 billion—up a modest 4% after two years of contraction but still well below the 2022 peak near $68 billion—anchors trader skepticism that 2026 sales will reach $65 billion.** High-end public auctions (up 9% to $20.7 billion) drove most of the rebound through trophy lots above $10 million, while the larger dealer sector grew just 2% to $34.8 billion amid rising operating costs, tariffs, and uneven demand. The U.S. (44% share), U.K., and China together accounted for 76% of value, with growth concentrated at the top and middle/lower tiers facing caution from collectors and profitability pressure on galleries. Cautious optimism appears in dealer surveys, yet persistent headwinds—geopolitical volatility, trade barriers, logistics inflation, and slower volume growth—make a roughly 9% jump to $65 billion in 2026 look ambitious. Recent tariff impacts and gallery restructuring further temper expectations for a broad surge by year-end.