The modest 2025 rebound to an estimated $59.6 billion—up just 4% after two years of contraction and still below the 2022 peak—anchors trader skepticism that 2026 sales will reach the $65 billion threshold. Public auction gains of 9%, led by high-end lots above $10 million, and a more tentative 2% dealer increase highlight an uneven recovery concentrated among top-tier works and U.S. buyers. Cautious dealer sentiment, with only 43% forecasting improvement amid geopolitical tensions, rising costs, trade frictions, and selective collector behavior, reinforces the market-implied 64% probability on “No.” Fall 2026 auction seasons and major fairs represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift momentum.