**Trader consensus heavily favors no Half-Life 3 announcement before 2027 at 84% implied probability, driven by Valve’s long pattern of missed rumor windows and deliberate silence.** Despite persistent 2025 speculation around November reveals, Steam Machine launches, and The Game Awards, no official word has emerged. Insiders such as Tyler McVicker and dataminer Gabe Follower confirm the HLX project remains active with recent code updates and substantial internal resources, yet Valve continues refining without a firm timeline or trailer. The studio’s history of “Valve Time,” recent hardware priorities like the Steam Frame, and absence of guild-style precursors or marketing campaigns reinforce skepticism. With only months left in 2026 and no confirmed catalysts on the horizon, markets reflect caution over hype.