Israeli officials have signaled readiness for a renewed large-scale ground operation in Gaza if Hamas refuses to disarm under the October 2025 U.S.-backed ceasefire framework. As of mid-September 2026, Defense Minister Israel Katz stated the IDF is prepared to resume full operations to eliminate Hamas infrastructure and pursue related demographic plans, while Southern Command has fortified positions along the Yellow Line, expanded territorial control to roughly 60-70 percent of the strip, and sustained targeted strikes amid reports of Hamas rebuilding capabilities. Defense assessments from August indicate operational plans exist for incremental advances into Gaza City, contingent on stalled diplomatic efforts and upcoming Israeli elections on October 27. These developments, alongside ongoing low-intensity clashes and international mediation pressures, shape trader views on the timing and likelihood of escalation before any market resolution date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$758,900 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
9%
$758,900 Vol.
December 31
$109,268 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli officials have signaled readiness for a renewed large-scale ground operation in Gaza if Hamas refuses to disarm under the October 2025 U.S.-backed ceasefire framework. As of mid-September 2026, Defense Minister Israel Katz stated the IDF is prepared to resume full operations to eliminate Hamas infrastructure and pursue related demographic plans, while Southern Command has fortified positions along the Yellow Line, expanded territorial control to roughly 60-70 percent of the strip, and sustained targeted strikes amid reports of Hamas rebuilding capabilities. Defense assessments from August indicate operational plans exist for incremental advances into Gaza City, contingent on stalled diplomatic efforts and upcoming Israeli elections on October 27. These developments, alongside ongoing low-intensity clashes and international mediation pressures, shape trader views on the timing and likelihood of escalation before any market resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ET
Volume
$758,900End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli officials have signaled readiness for a renewed large-scale ground operation in Gaza if Hamas refuses to disarm under the October 2025 U.S.-backed ceasefire framework. As of mid-September 2026, Defense Minister Israel Katz stated the IDF is prepared to resume full operations to eliminate Hamas infrastructure and pursue related demographic plans, while Southern Command has fortified positions along the Yellow Line, expanded territorial control to roughly 60-70 percent of the strip, and sustained targeted strikes amid reports of Hamas rebuilding capabilities. Defense assessments from August indicate operational plans exist for incremental advances into Gaza City, contingent on stalled diplomatic efforts and upcoming Israeli elections on October 27. These developments, alongside ongoing low-intensity clashes and international mediation pressures, shape trader views on the timing and likelihood of escalation before any market resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$758,900End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israeli officials have signaled readiness for a renewed large-scale ground operation in Gaza if Hamas refuses to disarm under the October 2025 U.S.-backed ceasefire framework. As of mid-September 2026, Defense Minister Israel Katz stated the IDF is prepared to resume full operations to eliminate Hamas infrastructure and pursue related demographic plans, while Southern Command has fortified positions along the Yellow Line, expanded territorial control to roughly 60-70 percent of the strip, and sustained targeted strikes amid reports of Hamas rebuilding capabilities. Defense assessments from August indicate operational plans exist for incremental advances into Gaza City, contingent on stalled diplomatic efforts and upcoming Israeli elections on October 27. These developments, alongside ongoing low-intensity clashes and international mediation pressures, shape trader views on the timing and likelihood of escalation before any market resolution date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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