Blue Origin’s January 2026 decision to pause New Shepard suborbital flights for at least two years, redirecting resources to New Glenn orbital development and lunar landers, forms the main driver behind the 74.5% market-implied probability that Jeff Bezos will not reach space before 2028. The company’s 38th New Shepard mission in January marked the end of routine crewed operations, while a May 2026 New Glenn static-fire explosion at Cape Canaveral further delayed heavy-lift timelines and pad reconstruction efforts aimed at a late-2026 return to flight. These shifts prioritize NASA lunar contracts over suborbital tourism, with no confirmed crewed missions or Bezos flight windows announced through 2027. Trader consensus incorporates the technical and scheduling uncertainties inherent in shifting from proven suborbital hardware to unproven orbital and lunar systems.