Lionel Messi’s 84% market-implied probability for the 2027 MLS Sprint Season Golden Boot reflects his unmatched scoring consistency and Inter Miami’s attacking structure heading into the abbreviated 14-game campaign. At 39, the Argentine has posted 21 goals and 13 assists through 24 matches in 2026 while leading the league in goal contributions, extending a run that includes back-to-back 20-plus goal seasons and a prior Golden Boot. His expected goals on target and chance creation metrics remain elite, and Miami’s supporting cast continues to create high-quality opportunities. The condensed February-to-May schedule limits variance for challengers, favoring Messi’s proven ability to deliver in limited fixtures against conference opponents. Key catalysts include his ongoing fitness, any late roster additions, and the absence of major international commitments during the sprint window.