Québec solidaire maintains concentrated support in several Montreal-area ridings, including safe or leaning projections for Mercier, Gouin, and Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques, where the party holds incumbency advantages and historical vote shares above 30 percent. Recent polling places QS near 11 percent provincewide, with models from 338Canada and others projecting between three and twelve seats despite an overall decline from 2022 levels. First-past-the-post mechanics reward this geographic clustering, supporting trader consensus on at least one victory. A late surge by other parties or unusually low turnout in core districts could narrow margins, though current evidence shows limited risk of total exclusion from the National Assembly before the October 5 vote.