Russian military resources remain heavily committed to the Ukraine conflict with limited capacity for broader conventional operations, yet European intelligence assessments in September 2026 highlight a low but growing risk of limited strikes or incursions against bordering NATO states such as Poland or the Baltics. Danish Defence Intelligence Service reporting and statements from Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk point to intensified hybrid activities—including drone incursions, sabotage plots, and airspace violations near alliance borders—as efforts to divert Western support for Ukraine and test Article 5 cohesion. NATO officials note ongoing ambiguity around sub-threshold incidents while emphasizing preparedness and deterrence measures. Full-scale invasion scenarios face significant logistical and force-generation barriers given current Russian deployments.