Russia’s ongoing full-scale war in Ukraine continues to absorb the bulk of its military resources and personnel, with Russian forces recording only marginal net territorial gains in 2026 amid Ukrainian counteractions and high attrition. Western intelligence assessments, including recent Danish and U.S. evaluations, describe a low but rising risk of limited strikes or hybrid probes against NATO infrastructure or border states, yet explicitly note no indications of preparations for a conventional invasion of another country before year-end. Analysts highlight that Russia would require substantial reconstitution—widely projected for 2029 or later—before mounting a major new offensive, while NATO’s Article 5 commitments and ongoing sanctions further deter escalation. These constraints underpin trader consensus that an additional invasion remains improbable through December 2026.