The Vatican's July 2026 decree excommunicating hundreds of Society of St. Pius X clergy and warning thousands of followers after unauthorized bishop consecrations in Switzerland marks the largest such action in decades and signals Pope Leo XIV's firm approach to schism and canon law violations. This decisive response to defiance, which also invalidated sacraments offered by the group, has shaped trader views that additional public excommunications remain likely before year-end amid ongoing Church divisions over tradition and authority. With roughly three months left in 2026 and no signs of de-escalation, the 76% implied probability for "Yes" reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing continued enforcement risks.