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Politics·Abortion

Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?

icon for Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?
Politics·Abortion

Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?

23% chance
Polymarket
NEW
23% chance
Polymarket
NEW
Missouri voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment (Amendment 3) which, if passed, would repeal the constitutional right to reproductive freedom, prohibit most abortions, and prohibit gender transition surgeries for minors. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Missouri Amendment 3, the Prohibit Abortion and Gender Transition Procedures for Minors Amendment, passes according to Missouri election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Amendment 3 is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Missouri, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Missouri, specifically the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov).Missouri Amendment 3, scheduled for the November 3, 2026 ballot, seeks to repeal the narrow 2024 voter-approved constitutional right to reproductive freedom while imposing limits on abortion and embedding a permanent ban on gender transition procedures for minors. Recent SLU/YouGov polling through late August shows the measure in a statistical tie at 43% support and 44% opposition among likely voters, reflecting the competitive dynamics after the prior initiative passed by just over three points. Existing state statutes already prohibit surgeries and, until 2027, most puberty blockers and hormones for minors, with the Missouri Supreme Court upholding those restrictions in January 2026. Traders appear to view the bundling of abortion repeal with the transgender provisions as insufficient to overcome voter resistance to reversing the 2024 outcome, consistent with the current 77% implied probability against passage.

Missouri voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment (Amendment 3) which, if passed, would repeal the constitutional right to reproductive freedom, prohibit most abortions, and prohibit gender transition surgeries for minors.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Missouri Amendment 3, the Prohibit Abortion and Gender Transition Procedures for Minors Amendment, passes according to Missouri election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If Amendment 3 is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Missouri, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Missouri, specifically the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov).Missouri voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment (Amendment 3) which, if passed, would repeal the constitutional right to reproductive freedom, prohibit most abortions, and prohibit gender transition surgeries for minors. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Missouri Amendment 3, the Prohibit Abortion and Gender Transition Procedures for Minors Amendment, passes according to Missouri election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Amendment 3 is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Missouri, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Missouri, specifically the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov).
Volume
$2,111
End Date
Jan 1, 2028
Market Opened
Mar 2, 2026, 6:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Missouri voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment (Amendment 3) which, if passed, would repeal the constitutional right to reproductive freedom, prohibit most abortions, and prohibit gender transition surgeries for minors. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Missouri Amendment 3, the Prohibit Abortion and Gender Transition Procedures for Minors Amendment, passes according to Missouri election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Amendment 3 is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Missouri, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Missouri, specifically the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov).Missouri Amendment 3, scheduled for the November 3, 2026 ballot, seeks to repeal the narrow 2024 voter-approved constitutional right to reproductive freedom while imposing limits on abortion and embedding a permanent ban on gender transition procedures for minors. Recent SLU/YouGov polling through late August shows the measure in a statistical tie at 43% support and 44% opposition among likely voters, reflecting the competitive dynamics after the prior initiative passed by just over three points. Existing state statutes already prohibit surgeries and, until 2027, most puberty blockers and hormones for minors, with the Missouri Supreme Court upholding those restrictions in January 2026. Traders appear to view the bundling of abortion repeal with the transgender provisions as insufficient to overcome voter resistance to reversing the 2024 outcome, consistent with the current 77% implied probability against passage.

Missouri voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment (Amendment 3) which, if passed, would repeal the constitutional right to reproductive freedom, prohibit most abortions, and prohibit gender transition surgeries for minors.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Missouri Amendment 3, the Prohibit Abortion and Gender Transition Procedures for Minors Amendment, passes according to Missouri election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If Amendment 3 is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Missouri, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Missouri, specifically the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov).Missouri voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment (Amendment 3) which, if passed, would repeal the constitutional right to reproductive freedom, prohibit most abortions, and prohibit gender transition surgeries for minors. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Missouri Amendment 3, the Prohibit Abortion and Gender Transition Procedures for Minors Amendment, passes according to Missouri election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Amendment 3 is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Missouri, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Missouri, specifically the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov).
Volume
$2,111
End Date
Jan 1, 2028
Market Opened
Mar 2, 2026, 6:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 23% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 23¢, the market collectively assigns a 23% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 2, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?" is 23% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 23% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.