The Salvator Mundi’s absence from public view since its 2017 record sale underpins the market’s strong “No” consensus at 89% implied probability. Owned by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the Leonardo-attributed panel was slated for Louvre Abu Dhabi in 2018 and considered for the 2019 Paris retrospective, yet both opportunities collapsed amid ownership demands and attribution sensitivities. Recent reporting places the work in secure Geneva storage, with Saudi plans centering on a purpose-built Riyadh or Al-Ula institution whose timeline extends well beyond 2026. No official announcements, guild-level previews, or credible institutional commitments have surfaced in the past year to alter that trajectory. Traders therefore price any late-year surprise as low-probability given the painting’s documented pattern of secrecy and the deliberate pacing of Saudi cultural infrastructure.