The USD/KRW exchange rate, currently trading near 1,343 as of early October 2026 after declining from June highs above 1,550, reflects Korea’s robust semiconductor-driven trade surplus and capital inflows that have boosted won demand. The Federal Reserve’s September 25-basis-point hike and signals of further tightening have supported the dollar via higher Treasury yields, yet strong Korean export cash flows and Bank of Korea policy restraint—likely a hold at its October meeting—have capped upside. Market-implied odds on Polymarket levels incorporate these supply-demand dynamics alongside U.S. inflation data and geopolitical energy risks, with upcoming FOMC and BOK decisions serving as key near-term catalysts for any sustained move.