Alexia Putellas holds an overwhelming edge in the Women’s Ballon d’Or 2026 market because she anchored Barcelona’s historic quadruple, delivering 20 goals and 13 assists across 43 appearances while stepping up as leader during Aitana Bonmatí’s long injury absence. Her seven goals and seven assists in the Champions League, including decisive moments in knockout ties, earned her UEFA Player of the Season honors and capped a fully healthy campaign after prior setbacks. Traders price her at 86.3% as the clearest consensus candidate with two prior titles and the most complete résumé. A reversal would require voters to heavily favor pure goal tallies from challengers like Ewa Pajor or overlook Putellas’ leadership and European pedigree, outcomes that remain possible but statistically unlikely given the documented body of work heading into the late-October ceremony.