Atsumi Harasawa holds the strongest trader consensus in this special election, driven by endorsements from the Liberal Democratic Party Yokohama chapter, the National Democratic Party, and local business groups seeking governance and compliance expertise after the prior mayor’s resignation over confirmed workplace harassment findings. Her background as a lawyer and former aviation maintenance worker, combined with explicit pledges against integrated resort development and emphasis on restoring municipal staff morale, positions her as the candidate best able to consolidate support across moderate and business-oriented voters. Other declared contenders—including Kazuma Nakatani backed by the Constitutional Democratic Party, Atsushi Fukuyama with Sanseito support, and Yuka Asaka of the Japanese Communist Party—remain at lower implied probabilities amid vote-splitting risks in the October 18 contest. Recent candidate announcements and party positioning in mid-to-late September have reinforced this alignment without yet producing decisive polling shifts.