Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors low tweet volumes from Elon Musk over May 14-16, with under 40 posts at 50.5% implied probability and 40-64 at 38.0%, driven by his sharply reduced X activity in early May 2026—averaging just 8-12 posts daily, a steep drop from 2025 highs near 100 per day during peak political engagement. Recent 24-hour tallies as of May 11 show only 5 posts, reflecting focus on Department of Government Efficiency duties, Tesla developments, and SpaceX priorities amid quieter public discourse. Absent viral controversies or major announcements, traders anticipate continuation of this subdued pace, though surprise events could ignite a posting surge.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour<40 51%
40-64 38%
65-89 9%
90-114 2.1%
$202,222 Vol.
$202,222 Vol.
<40
51%
40-64
38%
65-89
9%
90-114
2%
115-139
1%
140-164
1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
<40 51%
40-64 38%
65-89 9%
90-114 2.1%
$202,222 Vol.
$202,222 Vol.
<40
51%
40-64
38%
65-89
9%
90-114
2%
115-139
1%
140-164
1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Marché ouvert : May 11, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Source de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Source de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors low tweet volumes from Elon Musk over May 14-16, with under 40 posts at 50.5% implied probability and 40-64 at 38.0%, driven by his sharply reduced X activity in early May 2026—averaging just 8-12 posts daily, a steep drop from 2025 highs near 100 per day during peak political engagement. Recent 24-hour tallies as of May 11 show only 5 posts, reflecting focus on Department of Government Efficiency duties, Tesla developments, and SpaceX priorities amid quieter public discourse. Absent viral controversies or major announcements, traders anticipate continuation of this subdued pace, though surprise events could ignite a posting surge.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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