Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors low X post volume from Elon Musk over May 14-16, with <40 posts at 50.5% implied probability and 40-64 at 37.5%, reflecting his recent sharp drop in activity—trackers report just 5 posts May 11-13, 26 over May 9-11, and 42 partial through May 8-15, a stark contrast to his 2025 average near 100 daily. This lull aligns with his intensified focus on the Department of Government Efficiency role amid political commitments, tempering expectations for viral posting surges. While Musk's social media presence drives massive cultural engagement, no confirmed events like Tesla launches or SpaceX updates signal a rebound; traders eye potential news breaks as swing factors before the period ends May 16.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour<40 51%
40-64 38%
65-89 9%
90-114 2.1%
$202,535 Vol.
$202,535 Vol.
16 mai 2026
<40
51%
40-64
38%
65-89
9%
90-114
2%
115-139
1%
140-164
1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
<40 51%
40-64 38%
65-89 9%
90-114 2.1%
$202,535 Vol.
$202,535 Vol.
16 mai 2026
<40
$40,968 Vol.
51%
40-64
$12,703 Vol.
38%
65-89
$46,342 Vol.
9%
90-114
$11,545 Vol.
2%
115-139
$10,065 Vol.
1%
140-164
$9,011 Vol.
1%
165-189
$18,910 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$16,078 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$15,766 Vol.
<1%
240+
$21,146 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 14 12:00 PM ET to May 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors low X post volume from Elon Musk over May 14-16, with <40 posts at 50.5% implied probability and 40-64 at 37.5%, reflecting his recent sharp drop in activity—trackers report just 5 posts May 11-13, 26 over May 9-11, and 42 partial through May 8-15, a stark contrast to his 2025 average near 100 daily. This lull aligns with his intensified focus on the Department of Government Efficiency role amid political commitments, tempering expectations for viral posting surges. While Musk's social media presence drives massive cultural engagement, no confirmed events like Tesla launches or SpaceX updates signal a rebound; traders eye potential news breaks as swing factors before the period ends May 16.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 14 12:00 PM ET to May 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Marché ouvert : May 11, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Volume
$202,535Date de fin
16 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 11, 2026, 12:01 PM ETSource de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 14 12:00 PM ET to May 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors low X post volume from Elon Musk over May 14-16, with <40 posts at 50.5% implied probability and 40-64 at 37.5%, reflecting his recent sharp drop in activity—trackers report just 5 posts May 11-13, 26 over May 9-11, and 42 partial through May 8-15, a stark contrast to his 2025 average near 100 daily. This lull aligns with his intensified focus on the Department of Government Efficiency role amid political commitments, tempering expectations for viral posting surges. While Musk's social media presence drives massive cultural engagement, no confirmed events like Tesla launches or SpaceX updates signal a rebound; traders eye potential news breaks as swing factors before the period ends May 16.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 14 12:00 PM ET to May 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$202,535Date de fin
16 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 11, 2026, 12:01 PM ETSource de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors low X post volume from Elon Musk over May 14-16, with <40 posts at 50.5% implied probability and 40-64 at 37.5%, reflecting his recent sharp drop in activity—trackers report just 5 posts May 11-13, 26 over May 9-11, and 42 partial through May 8-15, a stark contrast to his 2025 average near 100 daily. This lull aligns with his intensified focus on the Department of Government Efficiency role amid political commitments, tempering expectations for viral posting surges. While Musk's social media presence drives massive cultural engagement, no confirmed events like Tesla launches or SpaceX updates signal a rebound; traders eye potential news breaks as swing factors before the period ends May 16.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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