Elon Musk’s steady social media cadence on X is anchoring trader consensus around the 40-64 tweet range for May 16-18, with that bucket holding an 81% implied probability. Historical daily averages for the platform’s owner, combined with visible activity through the first half of the window, have kept higher brackets from gaining meaningful ground despite occasional spikes in engagement. Recent posts touching on casting debates, simulation theory, and platform milestones have sustained conversation volume without triggering the kind of viral escalation that would push counts into the 65-plus territory. With the final 24 hours still ahead, traders are watching for any late surge in replies or announcements that could test the upper end of the favored range before the period closes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour40-64 81%
65-89 18%
90-114 1.2%
Moins de 40 <1%
$877,650 Vol.
$877,650 Vol.
18 mai 2026
Moins de 40
<1%
40-64
81%
65-89
18%
90-114
1%
115-139
<1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 81%
65-89 18%
90-114 1.2%
Moins de 40 <1%
$877,650 Vol.
$877,650 Vol.
18 mai 2026
Moins de 40
$344,264 Vol.
<1%
40-64
$80,253 Vol.
81%
65-89
$84,428 Vol.
18%
90-114
$104,852 Vol.
1%
115-139
$91,628 Vol.
<1%
140-164
$61,120 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$53,265 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$37,343 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$15,853 Vol.
<1%
240+
$18,696 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 16 12:00 PM ET to May 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s steady social media cadence on X is anchoring trader consensus around the 40-64 tweet range for May 16-18, with that bucket holding an 81% implied probability. Historical daily averages for the platform’s owner, combined with visible activity through the first half of the window, have kept higher brackets from gaining meaningful ground despite occasional spikes in engagement. Recent posts touching on casting debates, simulation theory, and platform milestones have sustained conversation volume without triggering the kind of viral escalation that would push counts into the 65-plus territory. With the final 24 hours still ahead, traders are watching for any late surge in replies or announcements that could test the upper end of the favored range before the period closes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 16 12:00 PM ET to May 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Marché ouvert : May 14, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Volume
$877,650Date de fin
18 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 14, 2026, 12:01 PM ETSource de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 16 12:00 PM ET to May 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s steady social media cadence on X is anchoring trader consensus around the 40-64 tweet range for May 16-18, with that bucket holding an 81% implied probability. Historical daily averages for the platform’s owner, combined with visible activity through the first half of the window, have kept higher brackets from gaining meaningful ground despite occasional spikes in engagement. Recent posts touching on casting debates, simulation theory, and platform milestones have sustained conversation volume without triggering the kind of viral escalation that would push counts into the 65-plus territory. With the final 24 hours still ahead, traders are watching for any late surge in replies or announcements that could test the upper end of the favored range before the period closes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 16 12:00 PM ET to May 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$877,650Date de fin
18 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 14, 2026, 12:01 PM ETSource de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s steady social media cadence on X is anchoring trader consensus around the 40-64 tweet range for May 16-18, with that bucket holding an 81% implied probability. Historical daily averages for the platform’s owner, combined with visible activity through the first half of the window, have kept higher brackets from gaining meaningful ground despite occasional spikes in engagement. Recent posts touching on casting debates, simulation theory, and platform milestones have sustained conversation volume without triggering the kind of viral escalation that would push counts into the 65-plus territory. With the final 24 hours still ahead, traders are watching for any late surge in replies or announcements that could test the upper end of the favored range before the period closes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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