Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to Elon Musk posting fewer than 40 times on X from May 4-6, 2026, driven by real-time tracking data from xtracker.polymarket.com showing a verified total of just 34 posts as the period concluded early May 6 EST. This unusually low volume—averaging around 11 posts per day—stems from Musk's reduced social media engagement during his high-profile OpenAI lawsuit trial, where recent daily averages hovered near 16 amid court appearances. Historical patterns show Musk often exceeds 50 posts daily during active periods, but trial distractions have suppressed output. With the window closed and data synced, an upset would require a rare resolution dispute over post classification (e.g., replies or reposts), though traders see negligible risk given the overwhelming evidence.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMoins de 40 100.0%
40-64 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$1,700,997 Vol.
$1,700,997 Vol.
6 mai 2026
Moins de 40
Oui
40-64
Non
65-89
Non
90-114
Non
115-139
Non
140-164
Non
165-189
Non
190-214
Non
215-239
Non
240+
Non
Moins de 40 100.0%
40-64 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$1,700,997 Vol.
$1,700,997 Vol.
6 mai 2026
Moins de 40
$565,000 Vol.
Oui
40-64
$288,028 Vol.
Non
65-89
$375,994 Vol.
Non
90-114
$214,682 Vol.
Non
115-139
$104,206 Vol.
Non
140-164
$52,859 Vol.
Non
165-189
$26,195 Vol.
Non
190-214
$20,099 Vol.
Non
215-239
$23,840 Vol.
Non
240+
$30,094 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 4 12:00 PM ET to May 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to Elon Musk posting fewer than 40 times on X from May 4-6, 2026, driven by real-time tracking data from xtracker.polymarket.com showing a verified total of just 34 posts as the period concluded early May 6 EST. This unusually low volume—averaging around 11 posts per day—stems from Musk's reduced social media engagement during his high-profile OpenAI lawsuit trial, where recent daily averages hovered near 16 amid court appearances. Historical patterns show Musk often exceeds 50 posts daily during active periods, but trial distractions have suppressed output. With the window closed and data synced, an upset would require a rare resolution dispute over post classification (e.g., replies or reposts), though traders see negligible risk given the overwhelming evidence.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 4 12:00 PM ET to May 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Marché ouvert : May 2, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Volume
$1,700,997Date de fin
6 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 2, 2026, 12:01 PM ETSource de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Oui
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Oui
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 4 12:00 PM ET to May 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to Elon Musk posting fewer than 40 times on X from May 4-6, 2026, driven by real-time tracking data from xtracker.polymarket.com showing a verified total of just 34 posts as the period concluded early May 6 EST. This unusually low volume—averaging around 11 posts per day—stems from Musk's reduced social media engagement during his high-profile OpenAI lawsuit trial, where recent daily averages hovered near 16 amid court appearances. Historical patterns show Musk often exceeds 50 posts daily during active periods, but trial distractions have suppressed output. With the window closed and data synced, an upset would require a rare resolution dispute over post classification (e.g., replies or reposts), though traders see negligible risk given the overwhelming evidence.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 4 12:00 PM ET to May 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$1,700,997Date de fin
6 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 2, 2026, 12:01 PM ETSource de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Oui
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Oui
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to Elon Musk posting fewer than 40 times on X from May 4-6, 2026, driven by real-time tracking data from xtracker.polymarket.com showing a verified total of just 34 posts as the period concluded early May 6 EST. This unusually low volume—averaging around 11 posts per day—stems from Musk's reduced social media engagement during his high-profile OpenAI lawsuit trial, where recent daily averages hovered near 16 amid court appearances. Historical patterns show Musk often exceeds 50 posts daily during active periods, but trial distractions have suppressed output. With the window closed and data synced, an upset would require a rare resolution dispute over post classification (e.g., replies or reposts), though traders see negligible risk given the overwhelming evidence.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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